That creates an “urgent requirement for more affordable air-to-air interceptors,” he added, arguing NATO should focus on cheaper alternatives to the Patriot like the AGR-20 laser-guided missile — and build out passive defenses like hardened concrete aircraft shelters.
The alliance’s munitions shortages will now feature heavily at July’s summit of NATO leaders, according to one person familiar with the matter.
2. Air inferiority
Iran’s ability to continue pummeling neighboring Gulf states with over 5,000 missile and drone attacks despite the U.S. aerial campaign shows the “clear limits to the expectation that you can bomb a country into submission” with conventional aircraft, said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The HMS Dragon is pictured in Portsmouth, England on March 4, 2026. | Peter Nicholls/Getty Images
In response, NATO must rethink air dominance and look for creative solutions to deter Russia, like turbocharging investment in long-range precision strike weapons capable of targeting Moscow’s drone production and military sites deep inside the country, said Bronk.
“If we can get air superiority over a contested area, then even Europe on its own could devastate Russian forces in the field,” he said, suggesting bolstering purchases of American-made AGM-88G missiles, with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
The Iran war has already prompted new discussions within NATO on the need for greater deep strike capabilities, said the two alliance diplomats, as talks on the organization’s next four-year defense planning cycle kick off this year.