China’s Oil Reserves and Export Ban Mitigate Strait of Hormuz Disruption, Says Kpler - News and Statistics

Apr 29, 2026

China’s oil reserves and a ban on refined product exports are shielding its domestic market from the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though analysts at Kpler note that the country’s core growth model remains unbalanced. According to the source, onshore oil inventories stood at approximately 1.2 billion barrels as of late February, providing 113 days of seaborne import cover, a figure that rises to 250 days when measured against domestic transportation fuels alone.

On March 12, the Chinese government enacted a ban on refined product exports. Prior to the ban, combined seaborne exports of gasoline, gasoil/diesel, and jet fuel had been running at 640,000 barrels per day. Since the restriction took effect, that figure has collapsed to just 90,000 barrels per day, based on a 15-day moving average. The policy has insulated China’s domestic market but has widened supply shortages across the broader Asia-Pacific region. Chinese refinery output is expected to fall by more than 1 million barrels per day year-on-year in April, while domestic fuel demand remains largely stable.

Growth Target and Economic Imbalances

Kpler expects China’s economy to grow at 4.5% this year, which represents the low end of the government’s growth target range. The mode of growth continues to exacerbate longstanding imbalances. During the first quarter, the government leaned heavily on infrastructure investment, with expenditures rising 8.9% year-on-year. Manufacturing investment also recovered to 4.1% year-on-year over the same period. Headline inflation has been revised up by 40 basis points to 1.2% due to energy price concerns linked to the Iran conflict, though weak underlying consumption limits broader price pressures.

Consumer Spending Lags Behind Industrial Output

Kpler’s calculation of Chinese inflation-adjusted retail sales growth shows just 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, well below industrial production growth of 6%, which reaccelerated from the fourth quarter of 2025. Until household demand begins to outpace production expansion, China’s structural reliance on external demand and investment to drive growth will persist. The report notes that China’s trade surplus surged to a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, driven largely by rising exports and weak consumption at home.

Net exports narrowed in the first quarter of 2026 to $214 billion, down from $273 billion in the same period a year earlier, but the government offset this by boosting infrastructure spending. Kpler expects infrastructure investment to remain at or above current levels through at least the second quarter. Manufacturing-related investment growth also recovered in the first quarter, though analysts doubt the pace can be sustained given an already overbuilt manufacturing sector.

The source concludes that, as has been the case for several years, China remains heavily reliant on investment and external demand to support aggressive growth targets, with little evidence of a shift toward a consumption-based model.

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

REPORT DESCRIPTION
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

KEY FINDINGS
MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT

5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
UNSATURATED MARKETS
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports

EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition
PRO

11.1

United States