Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains almost frozen, with only a single major oil tanker completing a rare passage as the closure of the waterway to most international traffic enters its third month.

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The VLCC Idemitsu Maru, carrying roughly 2 million barrels of Saudi crude bound for Japan, successfully exited the Persian Gulf on Tuesday. The vessel followed a tightly controlled route along Iran’s coastline, passing near Qeshm Island and Larak Island.

Its voyage stands out. It is the only non-Iran-linked supertanker to leave the Gulf in the past 10 days—and the first Japan-connected tanker to make the crossing since traffic effectively collapsed in late February.

Traffic at a Standstill

The strategic chokepoint, which typically handles about 20% of global oil flows along with significant LNG volumes, remains largely shut. Iran’s restrictions on the waterway, combined with a sweeping U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping, have reduced vessel movements to a trickle.

Iranian exports have been hit especially hard. With ships unable to move freely, Tehran is increasingly relying on older tankers to store crude that cannot be shipped out. At the same time, U.S. naval forces are confining much of Iran-linked traffic to the Gulf and nearby waters, further tightening the squeeze.

Standoff Deepens

Diplomatic efforts to ease tensions continue, but there is little sign of a breakthrough. Washington is reportedly preparing for a prolonged standoff, while Tehran has made it clear it will not reopen the strait or return to talks unless U.S. maritime restrictions are lifted.

Minimal Ship Activity

Beyond the single VLCC transit, activity has been крайне limited. Since Tuesday, only a handful of vessels—including bulk carriers, a chemical tanker, an LPG carrier, and one container ship—have exited the Gulf. A small number of inbound bulk carriers carrying food supplies to Iran were also recorded.

Several Iran-linked ships that left the region in recent days have not progressed beyond the Gulf of Oman, raising uncertainty over whether they are awaiting safer conditions or making short regional stops.

Restricted Routes, Limited Visibility

Ships still moving through Hormuz are being funneled into a narrow northern corridor under Iranian oversight. Meanwhile, tracking the true level of activity remains difficult.

Many vessels—particularly those tied to Iran—are switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals to avoid detection. This “dark shipping” practice means actual transit numbers may be higher than observed, with vessels only reappearing once they are far from the high-risk zone, often near the Strait of Malacca.

Outlook Uncertain

With both sides holding firm and shipping risks still elevated, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for most international traffic. For global energy markets and supply chains, a return to normal operations still looks distant.