Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Closure: Stagflation Risks and Oil Price Surge in 2026 - News and Statistics

May 1, 2026

Financial markets are struggling to ignore the rising economic toll of the Iran war, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to cause the largest disruption to energy supplies in history, according to a Reuters report published on April 30.

Two months into the conflict, the global economy is confronting a toxic combination of slowing growth and high inflation, often described as stagflation. Even though technology stocks have lifted world shares, analysts caution that the longer the strait remains shut, the greater the recession risk becomes for regions that import energy.

Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay, noted that the probability of a recession in Europe, the UK, and parts of Asia is higher than what is currently reflected in equity markets.

Oil Watch

Oil remains the key indicator. Brent crude is trading near $112 per barrel, more than 50% above its level before the war, and continues to climb as the conflict persists. High energy prices threaten economic growth by squeezing both consumers and companies while also fueling inflation.

Citi is evaluating a negative scenario in which Brent reaches $120 by the end of the year, reducing global growth to between 1.5% and 2% and pushing headline inflation close to 5%. Gas prices in Europe and Asia have also increased. Farmers face a second spike in fertiliser prices within four years, and some countries, such as Sweden, have issued warnings about potential shortages of jet fuel.

Financial Conditions

Despite significantly higher borrowing costs, the shock has not yet fully appeared in overall financial conditions. Market-based measures that track how asset prices affect funding availability and future growth tightened in the U.S. in March to their most restrictive level since last spring, but have since stabilised, helped by an equity rally in April, according to a widely followed Goldman Sachs index.

Conditions have tightened moderately in the euro zone and Japan, driven by rising borrowing costs. Britain stands out with a much sharper tightening, pointing to a heavier impact on growth.

U.S. Faces More of an Inflation Problem

The impact varies depending on exposure to energy flows through Hormuz. In the U.S., gas prices are now below pre-war levels. Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, said that both the scale and nature of the stagflation shock differ across regions. He noted that inflation will still be higher in the U.S. due to the oil price impact, but the effect on growth is much smaller in the U.S. than in Europe.

U.S. business activity picked up in April, though output prices jumped. Consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.7% this month from 3.8% in March, while market-based inflation gauges have also moved higher.

Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.

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#
Company
Headquarters
Focus
Scale
Note

1
Saudi Aramco
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
Integrated oil and gas
Global
World’s largest oil producer

2
China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC)
Beijing, China
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major state-owned producer

3
Sinopec
Beijing, China
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Large refining and chemical capacity

4
ExxonMobil
Spring, Texas, USA
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major international major

5
Royal Dutch Shell
London, UK / The Hague, NL
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Global energy major

6
BP
London, UK
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major international energy company

7
Chevron
San Ramon, California, USA
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major US-based international

8
TotalEnergies
Courbevoie, France
Integrated oil and gas
Global
French multinational energy major

9
Gazprom
Moscow, Russia
Gas and oil
Global
World’s largest natural gas company

10
Rosneft
Moscow, Russia
Oil and gas
Global
Leading Russian oil company

11
Kuwait Petroleum Corp.
Kuwait City, Kuwait
Integrated oil and gas
Global
State-owned oil company of Kuwait

12
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC)
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Integrated oil and gas
Global
State-owned company of UAE

13
Petrobras
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Oil and gas
Global
Brazilian state-controlled leader

14
Lukoil
Moscow, Russia
Oil and gas
Global
Largest non-state Russian oil co.

15
Petronas
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Malaysian state-owned energy co.

16
QatarEnergy
Doha, Qatar
Oil and gas
Global
State-owned petroleum company

17
ConocoPhillips
Houston, Texas, USA
Exploration and production
Global
World’s largest independent E&P

18
Valero Energy
San Antonio, Texas, USA
Refining and marketing
Global
World’s largest independent refiner

19
Phillips 66
Houston, Texas, USA
Refining and marketing
Global
Major US downstream company

20
Marathon Petroleum
Findlay, Ohio, USA
Refining and marketing
Global
Major US refiner and marketer

21
Equinor
Stavanger, Norway
Oil and gas
Global
Norwegian state-controlled major

22
Eni
Rome, Italy
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Italian multinational energy co.

23
Surgutneftegas
Surgut, Russia
Oil and gas
Global
Major Russian oil producer

24
Pemex
Mexico City, Mexico
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Mexican state-owned petroleum co.

25
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.
New Delhi, India
Refining and marketing
Global
India’s largest downstream company

26
Repsol
Madrid, Spain
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Spanish multinational energy co.

27
Occidental Petroleum
Houston, Texas, USA
Exploration and production
Global
Major US-based E&P company

28
Hess Corporation
New York, New York, USA
Exploration and production
Global
Independent E&P company

29
Suncor Energy
Calgary, Canada
Integrated oil sands
Global
Canadian oil sands leader

30
Reliance Industries
Mumbai, India
Refining and petrochemicals
Global
World’s largest refining complex

This report provides a comprehensive view of the global crude oil and processed petroleum industry, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the worldwide value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.

Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between exporters and importers worldwide. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the global crude oil and processed petroleum landscape.

Quick navigation
Key findings

Global demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking cost-competitive producers to import-reliant markets.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating distinct cost curves across regions.
Market concentration varies by country, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned globally.
Report scope

The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts across countries and regions.

Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments and regions
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Global trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverageCrude Oil and Processed PetroleumCountry coverageCountry profiles and benchmarks

For the global report, country profiles provide a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators. The profiles highlight the largest consuming and producing markets and allow direct benchmarking across peers.

Methodology

The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.

International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation

All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.

Forecasts to 2035

The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links crude oil and processed petroleum demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts.

Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing countries

Each country projection is built from its own historical pattern and the regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.

Price analysis and trade dynamics

Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.

Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants

Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.

Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report

Quantify global demand and identify the most attractive markets
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target countries
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against major competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of global crude oil and processed petroleum dynamics.

FAQ
What is included in the global crude oil and processed petroleum market?

The market size aggregates consumption and trade data at country and regional levels, presented in both value and volume terms.

How are the forecasts to 2035 built?

The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.

Does the report cover prices and margins?

Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.

Which countries are profiled in detail?

The report provides profiles for the largest consuming and producing countries, enabling benchmarking across peers.

Can this report support market entry decisions?

Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.

1. INTRODUCTION

Report Scope and Analytical Framing

Report DescriptionResearch Methodology and the Analytical FrameworkData-Driven Decisions for Your BusinessGlossary and Product-Specific Terms2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Concise View of Market Direction

Key FindingsMarket TrendsStrategic ImplicationsKey Risks and Watchpoints3. MARKET SIZE AND DEVELOPMENT PATH

Market Size, Growth and Scenario Framing

Market Size: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)Growth Outlook and Market Development Path to 2035Growth Driver DecompositionScenario Framework and Sensitivities4. CATEGORY SCOPE, DEFINITIONS AND BOUNDARIES

Commercial and Technical Scope

What Is Included and How the Market Is DefinedMarket Inclusion CriteriaProduct / Category DefinitionExclusions and BoundariesDistinction From Adjacent Products and Substitute Categories5. CATEGORY STRUCTURE, SEGMENTATION AND PRODUCT MATRIX

How the Market Splits Into Decision-Relevant Buckets

By Product Type / ConfigurationBy Application / End UseBy Customer / Buyer TypeBy Channel / Business Model / Technology PlatformSegment Attractiveness MatrixProduct Matrix and Segment Growth Logic6. DEMAND, CUSTOMER AND CONSUMER ARCHITECTURE

Where Demand Comes From and How It Behaves

Consumption / Demand by Country or Region: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)Demand by End-Use and Buyer GroupDemand by Customer / Consumer SegmentPurchase Criteria, Switching Logic and Adoption BarriersReplacement, Replenishment and Installed-Base DynamicsFuture Demand Outlook7. PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND VALUE CHAIN

Supply Footprint, Trade and Value Capture

Production by CountryManufacturing Footprint and Supply HubsCapacity, Bottlenecks and Supply RisksValue Chain Logic and Margin PoolsRoute-to-Market and Distribution Structure8. TRADE, SOURCING AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE

Trade Flows and External Dependence

Exports by CountryImports by CountryTrade Balance and Sourcing StructureImport Dependence and Supply ResilienceStrategic Trade Corridors9. PRICING, PROMOTION AND COMMERCIAL MODEL

Price Formation and Revenue Logic

Price Levels and Price CorridorsPricing by Segment / Specification / GeographyCost Drivers and Margin LogicPromotion, Discounting and Procurement PatternsRevenue Quality and Commercial Levers10. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PORTFOLIO POWER

Who Wins and Why

Market Structure and ConcentrationCompetitive ArchetypesSegment-by-Segment Competitive IntensityPortfolio Breadth and Product PositioningCapability MatrixStrategic Moves, Partnerships and Expansion Signals11. GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE AND COUNTRY ROLES

Where Growth and Supply Concentrate

Core Demand MarketsCore Production MarketsExport HubsImport-Reliant MarketsFastest-Growing MarketsCountry Archetypes and Strategic Roles12. GROWTH PLAYBOOK AND MARKET ENTRY

Commercial Entry and Scaling Priorities

Where to PlayHow to WinBuild vs Buy vs PartnerRoute-to-Market ChoicesLocalization and Capability ThresholdsEntry Risks and Mitigation13. WHERE TO PLAY NEXT: MOST ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Where the Best Expansion Logic Sits

Most Attractive Product NichesMost Attractive Customer SegmentsMost Attractive Markets for Commercial ExpansionWhite Spaces and Unsaturated OpportunitiesHigh-Margin and Underpenetrated PocketsMost Promising Product Adjacencies14. PROFILES OF MAJOR COMPANIES

Leading Players and Strategic Archetypes

Leading Manufacturers and SuppliersRegional Specialists and ChallengersProduction Footprint and Manufacturing CapacitiesProduct Portfolio and Segment FocusPricing Positioning and Indicative Price LogicChannel / Distribution StrengthStrategic Archetypes15. COUNTRY PROFILES

Detailed View of the Most Important National Markets

View detailed country profiles50 countries

15.1

United States