The US proposal to “guide” ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to spur cautious vessel owners into action without direct security guarantees and established frameworks in place, according to maritime risk and Middle East experts.
President Trump said Sunday in a Truth Social post that the US military would “guide” ships out of the Strait of Hormuz as the White House looks for ways to reopen transit through the critical waterway.
“For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” the president wrote on Truth Social.
US Central Command has said the operation, dubbed Project Freedom, will “support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor,” with support from guided-missile destroyers, aircraft, and other military assets.
President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One at Miami International Airport, in Miami, Saturday May 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
However, the plan from US Central Command stops short of providing naval escorts, the Wall Street Journal reported. Maritime risk and insurance experts said the lack of firm security guarantees opens up questions of safety and may keep vessel owners from jumping on the proposal.
“Without naval escorts, vessel owners will not treat this as a normal reopening of Hormuz,” Arsenio Longo, the founder of maritime intelligence platform HUAX, told Yahoo Finance.
The US offer “may help selected or stranded vessels move, but it does not automatically create commercial confidence,” Longo said.
Vessel traffic through the strait Monday morning remained limited, without the transit of large container ships and other major commercial vessels that would signal a “meaningful reopening,” Longo said.
Complicating the situations for vessels looking to exit the Strait of Hormuz are reports of further military action in the waterway over the weekend and Monday morning.
The US denied early morning reports from the Iranian state news agency Fars that two missiles hit a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the UAE on Monday said an oil carrier belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was struck by two Iranian drones, while US military leadership warned vessel owners that the mines have been placed throughout the strait by Iran.
The head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission Ebrahim Azizi said Monday that any attempt by the US to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz would be read by Tehran as a violation of the ceasefire that remains reportedly in place.
In an audio clip shared widely on X throughout Monday morning, allegedly from Iranian radio broadcasts in the Strait of Hormuz, a member of the Iranian state says that until the US fulfills its commitments to Iran, the strait is “completely closed again,” and that “no vessels” would be allowed to transit the waterway.
The risks are too high,” Amena Bakr, the head of Middle East energy insights at the intelligence platform Kpler, said. “Doubt any of the companies will take this option.”
Futures on Brent crude, the international pricing benchmark, rose 2.5% to clear $111.80 per barrel after reaching a four-year high of $126.31 on Thursday. Those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.5% to trade at $103.50 per barrel.
On the diplomatic front, Trump said the US was engaged in “very positive discussions with Iran.” Crew members from a seized Iranian container vessel were evacuated to Pakistan in coordination with both the US and Iran, Pakistan’s foreign minister said on Monday, which experts said may signal there are legitimate backchannels between the US and Iran.
That said, the two sides remain largely at a stalemate in public. Tehran has said it can’t negotiate until the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, while White House has said it won’t call off the blockade until the regime signs a deal on its nuclear program, aiming to squeeze the regime by choking off oil export revenue.
Iran is likely less than two weeks away from having to begin shutting down serious quantities of oil production, risking damage to fragile well systems, according to Kpler data. Experts caution that the regime has had to shut down production during earlier conflicts and has experience doing so without causing long-term damage.
“On the one hand, Trump wants to break the deadlock — the scheme to get ships out of the strait is clearly a move to undermine Iran’s position,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, focused on oil markets and Iran. “On the other hand, it’s incremental. And unless there are active escorts, it may not change much.”
US officials told Axios on Monday, “It’s either we’re looking at the real contours of an achievable deal soon, or he’s going to bomb the hell out of them.”
A container ship sits at anchor as a small motorboat passes in the foreground in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Saturday, May 2, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.
Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance