That’s because Iran still clearly intends to attack ships that try to transit without going through the Iran-approved route near the Iranian coastline, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
“This initiative alone isn’t something that looks like it’s going to open the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. Shipping and insurance companies “still have to wait and see how this plays out.”
Taking the northern route involves going through vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and payment, in at least some cases. The U.S.-guided “Project Freedom” route goes through territorial waters of Oman to the south.
Reopening the strait “can really only be done through either an agreement between the United States or Iran,” or if the U.S. significantly diminishes Iran’s ability to attack using drones, missiles and small boats, he said.