That said, the US is not truly energy independent.<\/p>\n
Read more:\u00a0How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries<\/a><\/p>\n As the chart below shows, while the US is a net exporter of petroleum products generally, a category that includes crude oil and refined products, it is a net importer of the underlying crude oil.<\/p>\n That\u2019s because while US shale oil is primarily light, sweet crude, the refinery complex along the US\u2019s Gulf Coast is designed primarily to handle heavy crude imported from Canada and a few other countries.<\/p>\n Yet despite the US\u2019s relatively strong position on energy reliance, oil price spikes have swift consequences domestically. Prices on both international Brent crude (BZ=F<\/a>) and US WTI crude (CL=F<\/a>) oil are up roughly 50% since the start of the war, even after pulling back from wartime highs by some $20 each.<\/p>\n Read more:\u00a0How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries<\/a><\/p>\n Those increases have sent gasoline prices soaring. The national average now sits at roughly $4.48 per gallon at the pump<\/a> as the war in Iran has stymied global oil flows, according to AAA. A year ago, that price was just over $3 per gallon.<\/p>\n Those costs directly feed into consumer spending. As the second chart below shows, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index has been rising as inflation has remained above the Fed\u2019s 2% target rate.<\/p>\n Headline prices rose by 0.7% in March over the previous month<\/a>, according to PCE data released April 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Core” PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3% on the month.<\/p>\n On an annual basis, the headline and core PCE price indexes rose 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively, in March from the previous year, in line with expectations on both measures.<\/p>\n But inflation isn\u2019t the only concern. Oil shocks tend to hit the economy \u2014 and the consumer \u2014 from a growth perspective as well.<\/p>\n Higher oil prices can push up headline inflation and, if sustained, feed into underlying price pressures \u2014 strengthening the case for keeping borrowing costs elevated. At the same time, rising energy costs act as a drag on household spending and corporate margins, potentially slowing economic activity and complicating the path for interest rates.<\/p>\n Historically, Luzzetti wrote, economic recessions have been accompanied by oil price shocks, including the 1973 to 1975 recession and the lead-up to the 2008 global financial crisis, as the third chart below indicates.<\/p>\n Most economists are not calling for a recession, but major Wall Street firms have warned that while energy-driven inflation is capturing headlines now, the bigger worry down the road could be economic growth.<\/p>\n Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.co<\/a>nley@yahooinc.com.<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/screenshot-2026-05-05-at-23325-pm_8703.png\")
The US energy trade balance has shifted dramatically in the last decade, writes Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti. \u00b7 Deutsche Bank <\/p>\n Spending on energy and gas prices has increased sharply over the past two years, notes Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti. \u00b7 Deutsche Bank <\/p>\n
Historically, recessions have often been accompanied by oil price spikes, according to Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti \u00b7 Deutsche Bank <\/p>\n