The Kobeissi Letter outlined its analysis in a Wednesday morning post<\/a>:<\/p>\n “At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news.This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War.By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million.”<\/p>\n Brent oil<\/a> was down as much as 11.9%, while WTI oil<\/a> dropped more than 13%. Around 10:20 a.m. Brent and WTI were down roughly 7% at $101.93 and $95.06, respectively.<\/p>\n The plunge reflects investor optimism that the war is nearing an end on the reported agreement. It would also be a windfall for anyone betting on the downward move in crude.<\/p>\n Former JPMorgan quant head Marko Kolanovic<\/a> reacted to oil price moves on the Axios report, saying<\/a> “Who knows what happens next in blatantly manipulated markets.”<\/p>\n Eric Nuttall, a partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, commented on the analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, saying<\/a>, “We continue to encourage energy investors to focus on “the day after”, as day-to-day volatility may be intentionally induced for nefarious reasons.”<\/p>\n The trades highlighted by market watchers online are the latest example of well-timed bets tied to developments in the war. A $950 million oil trade on April 7 and a $760 million bet a week later were put on just minutes before breaking news that moved the price of crude.<\/p>\n Still, as has become common during the ceasfire that’s held since early April, conflicting signals on the likelihood of a durable peace have emerged on Wednesday as markets positioned for an end to the war<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"Line](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1778089911_612_full.png\")
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