As JD Vance neared the end of his Iowa debut as vice president Tuesday \u2014 a state more freighted with presidential expectations than any other \u2014 he felt compelled to recount one last emotional story.<\/p>\n
Mr. Vance had just met two Gold Star families of fallen service members at the Des Moines airport, including one whose son had died earlier this year in the Iran war.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey told me,\u201d Mr. Vance said of the parents, \u201cthat their son\u2019s birthday was today.\u201d<\/p>\n
Photos show Mr. Vance\u2019s own son, 6, clinging to his father\u2019s hand as he spoke to the families on the tarmac. Mr. Vance later told the crowd that he had looked into his son\u2019s eyes on the drive from the airport \u2014 they \u201cremind me of his mother\u2019s eyes,\u201d he said \u2014 and pondered what he would say \u201cif this beautiful 6-year-old boy got older and decided, like his dad, to put on the uniform of his country.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the one hand, I\u2019d be so proud of him, I\u2019d be so proud of him,\u201d Mr. Vance said. \u201cOn the other hand, I\u2019d be so terrified that what happened to those two families would happen to this boy.\u201d<\/p>\n
For Mr. Vance, a former Marine who served in Iraq, the war in Iran highlights the bind he is in as he considers a future presidential bid, pulled between the unpopularity of the conflict \u2014 and his own initial skepticism about it \u2014 and his role as loyal lieutenant to President Trump.<\/p>\n
The vice president\u2019s team believes that his political fortunes are inextricably linked to his boss. In polls, he is the front-runner for the next presidential nomination in large part because he is Mr. Trump\u2019s No. 2. Yet he may have to carry the baggage of a president with whom he campaigned explicitly on avoiding \u201cforever\u201d foreign wars.<\/p>\n
The Vance trip on Tuesday to Iowa, whose caucuses will kick off the 2028 nominating contest, was billed as an effort to lift a vulnerable House Republican, Representative Zach Nunn<\/a>.<\/p>\n But it was also a chance for Mr. Vance to woo influential Iowans. Backstage, the vice president posed for photos and held a series of brief private meetings with key Iowa political players, including Jeff Kaufmann, the longtime state party chairman, the influential evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats and the conservative talk show host Steve Deace.<\/p>\n \u201cObviously we all know that the vice president \u2014 I mean, just common sense would tell you that he\u2019s going to be looking at the presidency,\u201d Mr. Kaufmann said, noting that Mr. Vance\u2019s team had been \u201cvery good about keeping me in the loop.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Vance\u2019s speech was not flawless. Without a teleprompter, he lost track of his notes \u2014 \u201cI\u2019m on the wrong page here,\u201d he said at one point. At others, he fluently nodded at local issues, such as \u201cfighting\u201d to blend ethanol into gas.<\/p>\n Mr. Deace came away impressed. \u201cWe had a very candid conversation, so I will keep it between us,\u201d he said, noting that it was his second in-person meeting with the vice president. \u201cI\u2019ve never supported Trump in a primary,\u201d he added, but Mr. Vance is \u201cthe leader in the clubhouse for me\u201d in 2028.<\/p>\n Yet the Iran war\u2019s unpopularity is darkening the political climate for Republicans right now. A recent Washington Post\/ABC News\/Ipsos poll<\/a> showed the conflict to be as unpopular now as the Vietnam War was in the 1970s and the Iraq War was in 2006.<\/p>\n Only 19 percent of the adults surveyed said the use of military force had been successful so far, including only 46 percent of Republicans, though an equal share said it was too soon to tell.<\/p>\n The midterms may still be six months away, but the time for Mr. Vance to begin laying the groundwork for a 2028 bid is not far off.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump announced his 2024 run right after the 2022 midterms \u2014 almost two full years ahead of the election. Mr. Trump\u2019s team believes that his main rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, made a grave error by delaying until the spring of 2023 to enter the race.<\/p>\n \u201cThe midterms in general are about 2028, especially as it relates to Vice President Vance,\u201d said Mr. Vander Plaats, who is deeply involved in conservative politics in the state. \u201cBecause if the midterms go well \u2014 we keep the House, we keep the Senate, we keep legislatures \u2014 that is going to bode very well for JD.\u201d<\/p>\n Many in the Republican Party are eager for an ideological fight over MAGA\u2019s future, the type of full-throated disagreements about spending and foreign policy that Mr. Trump\u2019s last two campaigns largely suppressed.<\/p>\n Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and Mr. Vance\u2019s most-discussed potential rival, has publicly suggested he would defer to Mr. Vance. \u201cI\u2019ll be one of the first people to support him,\u201d he said last year<\/a>. Still, on Wednesday, Mr. Rubio issued a campaign-style video on X<\/a> celebrating the country\u2019s 250th birthday. The score of the video was a Hans Zimmer soundtrack from \u201cMan of Steel,\u201d<\/a> a Superman movie.<\/p>\n At Mr. Vance\u2019s Iowa event, multiple Republican voters volunteered their interest in Mr. Rubio.<\/p>\n \u201cI think Vance is great, but I think Rubio would be great, too,\u201d said Duane Lawrence, a 62-year-old retiree, who was wearing a shirt that said \u201cICE ICE baby\u201d on the back.<\/p>\n \u201cMarco Rubio\u2019s a great alternative \u2014 I like them both extremely well,\u201d said Jim Edmonson, 68, a retiree from the lumber industry.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ll be honest with you,\u201d said Merle Miller, 67, of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. \u201cBetween JD Vance and Marco Rubio, I love Marco Rubio. JD Vance, Marco Rubio would be a phenomenal team.\u201d<\/p>\n It has not been the smoothest of sailing for Mr. Vance of late.<\/p>\n He campaigned in Hungary for Viktor Orban, the conservative prime minister, days before he went down in defeat. He traveled to Pakistan<\/a> for peace talks with Iran and came back without a deal. He defended the president\u2019s attacks on Pope Leo XIV even as he prepared to publish a book about his spiritual journey to Catholicism.<\/p>\n Still, early polls place Mr. Vance as the overwhelming front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, even as the vice president remains unpopular with the broader electorate. His approval rating measured just 35 percent in the most recent Washington Post\/ABC News\/Ipsos poll<\/a> \u2014 and disapproval stood at 48 percent.<\/p>\n Unlike other cabinet officials, Mr. Vance can run for president while keeping his day job.<\/p>\n Some potential 2028 candidates are willing to be seen as contenders. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas came to Iowa last Friday, appearing at a Christian conservative gathering in the state where he carried the caucuses over Mr. Trump a decade ago.<\/p>\n