Beirut, Lebanon \u2013 Israel\u2019s attacks on Lebanon and pressure on the Lebanese government to disarm the pro-Iran Shia movement Hezbollah by force are stoking internal tensions, analysts have told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Israel is leaning on this division as a strategy to try to pit communities against one another, they say. The strategy is working, they add, pointing to a recent series of sectarian and political provocations.<\/p>\n
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\u201cIt\u2019s not a byproduct [of the war]. They know very well what they\u2019re doing,\u201d Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera. \u201cWhen they were emptying the southern suburbs, they knew very well that most of these people would head into inner Beirut and into areas which are not areas of Shia majority. And certainly, I think this was their effort to create sectarian tensions and, in a way, put more pressure on the Lebanese state.\u201d<\/p>\n
Destroying villages to pressure Lebanon<\/p>\n
On March 2, Israel intensified its war on Lebanon. It was the second intensification in the last two years and came after a November 2024 ceasefire agreement that Israel violated more than 10,000 times, according to United Nations peacekeepers.<\/p>\n
While Israel had repeatedly bombed southern Lebanon during that supposed ceasefire, it expanded its attacks to Beirut and other areas after Hezbollah responded to the killing of Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on February 28.<\/p>\n
Israel has killed more than 5,000 people in Lebanon since October 2023. In March, Israeli forces invaded Lebanon for the second time since 2024, where they are now systematically destroying southern towns and villages<\/a>. Israel has forcibly displaced 1.2 million people, ordering people from their homes in southern Lebanon and Beirut\u2019s southern suburbs.<\/p>\n When the ceasefire between the United States and Iran started on April 8, many Lebanese wondered if they would be included. Israel definitively answered that question by killing more than 350 people<\/a> in a day, with 100 Israeli attacks in under ten minutes across Lebanon.<\/p>\n The ceasefire was extended by Donald Trump, but Israel has continued attacks in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has responded in turn by battling Israeli troops. Lebanon has agreed to direct negotiations with Israel in attempts to end the war and occupation of southern Lebanon.<\/p>\n Internally, however, Lebanon\u2019s population and politicians are deeply divided on the issue of negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah and its supporters oppose direct negotiations, preferring indirect talks, while the Lebanese government is under US and Israeli pressure to engage in direct talks, possibly even a meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese leaders<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Israelis are trying to put pressure on the Lebanese state,\u201d Young said. \u201cThey\u2019re destroying villages, pushing the Shia community into areas where there aren\u2019t Shia majorities, and it is definitely designed to heighten sectarian tensions.\u201d<\/p>\n Angry birds<\/p>\n Israel\u2019s stated goal has been to disarm Hezbollah, but analysts said the Israelis are aware that it cannot be done through force alone.<\/p>\n \u201cThe objective remains a bit of a mystery because the Israelis know very well that the Lebanese Army cannot disarm Hezbollah and [the Israeli military] themselves admitted that they couldn\u2019t do this job because it would involve taking all of Lebanon, which they have no intention of doing,\u201d Young said.<\/p>\n This is why analysts say Israel\u2019s aim is to press Lebanon\u2019s communities into confrontation, in order to pressure the Lebanese state to concede. And the strategy appears to have worked to fuel some internal tensions.<\/p>\n