BEIJING\u00a0\u2014\u00a0The Trump administration has repeatedly framed the war in Iran as a quick, winnable fight, vowing to defeat the Islamic Republic \u201ctotally and decisively\u201d \u2014 incomparable to the \u201cdumb\u201d wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n
But from China\u2019s perspective, the parallels are clear.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can blow everything up \u2014 destroy it all,\u201d one Chinese official told The Times, describing the Americans, \u201cbut you don\u2019t have a strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n
President Trump arrives in Beijing this week<\/a> for talks with a Chinese government that is confident as ever in its ascendance on the world stage, taking stock of its leverage and still baffled the U.S. administration chose yet another costly war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n China has watched as the United States, over seven weeks of fighting an outmatched enemy, has depleted nearly half of its stockpiles of high-end munitions \u2014 including its THAAD and Patriot batteries \u2014 and fired its Army chief of staff<\/a>, among other Pentagon leaders, who had warned of critical shortages.<\/p>\n Marco Rubio, Trump\u2019s national security advisor and secretary of State, has said the military operation that started the war known as Operation Epic Fury \u201cis over<\/a>.\u201d <\/p>\n But the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world\u2019s most vital commercial waterways, remains effectively shuttered<\/a>. Iranian attacks in the region continue. And talks between Washington and Tehran have failed to reach a diplomatic agreement<\/a> to bring a definitive end to the conflict.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Chinese have high regard for the operational proficiency of U.S. forces, but they recognize that, thus far at least, the Trump administration has not achieved its core objectives in going to war with Iran,\u201d said David Ochmanek, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense now with the Rand Corp. <\/p>\n The war has given Beijing an opportunity, Ochmanek said, \u201cto double down on the claim they have made for the past year and a half that the [People\u2019s Republic of China], not the U.S., is a force for global stability.\u201d<\/p>\n The war has allowed China to demonstrate some diplomatic prowess. An initial ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran last month was only clinched after Beijing pressured Tehran to agree. And China\u2019s advocacy for an open strait \u2014 rejecting Iranian attempts to impose a toll system \u2014 while opposing the U.S. war itself has allowed Beijing to maintain leverage with both sides.<\/p>\n It has also inflicted costs. Allies of Beijing noticed when the government did not leap to the defense of Tehran at the start of the war. And China has its own vested interest in a free and open waterway, where nearly 50% of the country\u2019s crude oil imports pass through each day.<\/p>\n Building up to the start of the war and throughout its initial weeks, Washington diverted significant military assets from Asia \u2014 where Trump\u2019s own national security strategy says they are needed most \u2014 to the Middle East. <\/p>\n