{"id":110545,"date":"2026-05-12T17:41:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T17:41:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/110545\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T17:41:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T17:41:14","slug":"iran-gambles-that-trump-will-blink-first-in-hormuz-standoff-but-risks-overplaying-its-hand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/110545\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran gambles that Trump will blink first in Hormuz standoff, but risks overplaying its hand"},"content":{"rendered":"

PARIS, France (AFP) \u2014 Iran\u2019s leadership is betting it can outlast an under-pressure Donald Trump in its peace negotiations with Washington, but its defiance risks renewed military confrontation and further stoking domestic tensions, analysts say.<\/p>\n

With a shaky ceasefire<\/a> holding almost two-and-a-half months after the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic began, the US president has angrily dismissed Iran\u2019s responses to a US proposal for a settlement, warning the truce is on its last legs.<\/p>\n

But analysts say that even after the killing of longtime supreme leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war on February 28, Iran\u2019s leadership remains fiercely ideological and dedicated to the preservation of the Islamic Republic set up in the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey do think they can outlast Trump. The war is existential for them,\u201d Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told AFP.<\/p>\n

Iran understands that by blocking the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 the first time it has restricted shipping traffic in the key bottleneck for trade and energy supplies after years of threats \u2014 it has a major strategic lever.<\/p>\n

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Trump, meanwhile, is under pressure to find an off-ramp to the conflict, which has proven unpopular at home and driven up prices at the pump, with midterm elections right around the corner.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tA container ship sits at anchor as a small motorboat passes in the foreground in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, May 2, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi\/ISNA via AP)<\/p>\n

Iran \u201cis committed to negotiations but what they don\u2019t want is surrender. They want to extract concessions because of their improved hand,\u201d Vakil said. \u201cThey are prepared for another round of conflict and they are ready to gamble on that, which is a risk as the costs for Iran would be huge.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Overplayed its hand\u2019 before<\/p>\n

Analysts say it remains unclear who is currently running Iran, with the slain supreme leader\u2019s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei,<\/a> likely involved in decision-making but not the only player in a scene dominated by the ideologically driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.<\/p>\n

Parliament speaker and Guards veteran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as Iran\u2019s frontman in negotiations, said Tuesday there was \u201cno alternative\u201d to the plan submitted by Iran to Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the leadership, the perception is that negotiating the best conditions possible is essential to their very survival,\u201d said Thomas Juneau, professor at Ottawa University. \u201cThey are therefore entirely willing to absorb significant economic pain if it means waiting out Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tIran\u2019s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dressed in an IRGC uniform, chairs a session in Tehran, Iran, on February 1, 2026. (Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency (ICANA)\/AFP)<\/p>\n

Juneau said the \u201cHormuz lever is essential for Iran,\u201d with the leadership calculating that Trump will lose patience with the ensuing higher oil prices as the US midterms near.<\/p>\n

But he cautioned that the leadership was taking a gamble, facing a \u201chugely discontented population\u201d in the wake of January protests, a struggling economy, and major damage to civilian and military infrastructure after US-Israeli attacks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Islamic Republic has overplayed its hand in the past, and it absolutely is at risk of doing so again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u2018More intransigent\u2019<\/p>\n

Summing up Tehran\u2019s official stance, a new giant billboard appeared this week in Valiasr Square in the capital depicting Trump\u2019s mouth bound by a Hormuz-shaped gag alongside the slogan: \u201cAt the breaking point.\u201d<\/p>\n

Arash Azizi, lecturer at Yale University, said Iran\u2019s leadership believed it had a \u201cmagic bullet\u201d in its control of Hormuz and was hoping to \u201ccorner\u201d Trump into obtaining better terms.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tUS President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he walks to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, May 8, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo\/Jose Luis Magana)<\/p>\n

\u201cIt appears a bit delusional. It might backfire and lead to resumption of war by Trump or Israel,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But journalist and political analyst Maziar Khosravi told AFP in Tehran that Trump and Israel could no longer wield the threat of military action to pressure the leadership.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump could try the military option again, hoping to eliminate another layer of leadership in the Islamic Republic,\u201d he said. \u201cBut this doesn\u2019t seem like a viable option to me, because each new generation of leaders coming to power is more intransigent than the last.\u201d<\/p>\n

Vakil said neither side wanted to see a resumption of full hostilities, but noted it wasn\u2019t out of the question, saying the Trump administration appeared to fundamentally misunderstand the rigidity of the Iranian leadership\u2019s mindset.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe military path is unlikely to push Iran into submission. The Trump administration lacks a true appreciation for the Islamic Republic\u2019s ideological position. It sees everything from a military vantage point.\u201d<\/p>\n


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