(Bloomberg) — Oil shipments from Iran\u2019s main export terminal appear to have come to a standstill over the past several days, according to satellite images, the first sign of a prolonged halt since the start of the war.<\/p>\n
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There were no ocean-going oil tankers observed at Kharg Island on May 8, 9 or 11, European satellite imagery compiled by Bloomberg shows. While there have been individual days when the jetties have been empty since the conflict began, this is by far the longest stretch when no tankers have been spotted.<\/p>\n
Iran has loaded cargoes at the facility throughout the conflict, continuing to fill ships and use them as floating storage after their passage out of the Persian Gulf was blocked by the US Navy.<\/p>\n
If Kharg Island were to remain idle, it would increase the pressure on the country\u2019s remaining storage facilities, which satellite images show are filling up. Estimates vary for how much space Iran has left, but if all tanks were to reach capacity it could be forced to make deeper production cuts. The country already curbed some output.<\/p>\n
The New York Times reported a 3,000 barrel leak at the facility based on a May 6 image, something that could have affected loadings. Iran has denied there\u2019s been a spill and subsequent images, in which loadings had halted, don\u2019t obviously show one.<\/p>\n
Pictures from the European Union\u2019s Sentinel 2 satellite taken on May 11 show all the berths at Kharg Island lying empty. Images recorded both two and three days earlier show no ocean-going oil tankers at the facility.<\/p>\n
The terminal hasn\u2019t been shown empty for more than a single day since the start of the war. There are satellite images of the Kharg Island jetties on 33 out of the 73 days since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Feb. 28. Only two of the earlier images show no tankers moored, one in mid-April and one in early March.<\/p>\n
There are gaps in the record because the path of the Sentinel 1 and 2 satellites around the Earth means that not all areas of the planet\u2019s surface are covered every day.<\/p>\n
Floating Storage<\/p>\n
With Iran\u2019s ships unable to leave the Persian Gulf without risking seizure or attack by the US Navy since mid-April, oil tankers are being used as floating storage.<\/p>\n
A flotilla has built up at anchor east of Kharg Island in the past few weeks. The number of very large crude carriers has risen from just three on April 11, two days before Washington imposed its blockade, to at least 18 tankers of various sizes by May 11. Others have congregated off the Iranian port of Chabahar, near the border with Pakistan.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s unclear how many of these tankers are full and how many are empty, but it\u2019s reasonable to assume that those that have visited Kharg Island then anchored nearby contain cargoes. Those further east toward the mouth of the Persian Gulf may be a mix of laden ships prevented by the US from leaving and empty ones halted on their way into the waterway to take on fresh cargoes.<\/p>\n
Storage Filling<\/p>\n
With tanker loadings seemingly paused, storage tanks on Kharg Island appear to be filling up, analysis of the satellite images shows.<\/p>\n
The tanks have floating roofs that rise as they fill, reducing the distance between the top of the tank wall and the roof. This shrinks the shadows cast by the side of the reservoir onto its top, so a comparison of photos taken at the same time on different days reveals how the volume of oil inside has changed.<\/p>\n
An image of the tanks on May 11 (left) shows several reservoirs, circled in red, with noticeably smaller shadows on their roofs than in an image from April 6 (right), shortly before the US Navy began its blockade.<\/p>\n
The images suggest Kharg Island\u2019s spare capacity is dwindling to near zero. If Iran were to run out of places to store oil, it could be forced to cut production at some fields, handing a symbolic victory to the US.<\/p>\n
Since the blockade began, President Donald Trump and officials in his administration have predicted that Iran would have to quickly start shutting down oil wells. Other observers, such as analytics firm Kpler, have estimated that Tehran could keep pumping until late May before running out of storage space.<\/p>\n
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