{"id":113410,"date":"2026-05-14T11:05:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T11:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/113410\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T11:05:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T11:05:10","slug":"iran-struggles-to-keep-iraq-and-lebanon-in-its-orbit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/113410\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran struggles to keep Iraq and Lebanon in its orbit"},"content":{"rendered":"

An elusive senior Iranian commander has surfaced in Iraq<\/a> twice in less than a month, while Tehran scrambles to prove it still holds the keys to Lebanon\u2019s ceasefire \u2013 two fronts that have become deeply intertwined in Iran\u2019s fight to preserve its regional influence.<\/p>\n

After decades of building unrivalled political influence in both countries, Iran<\/a> now fears its grip may be loosening, regional political and security sources told The National. They include a Lebanese politician who has long dealt with Iranian diplomats and a regional security official with decades of experience engaging Tehran.<\/p>\n

They point to mounting Iranian political and military activity aimed at preserving its foothold in Iraq and Lebanon, where Tehran waged proxy wars against the US and Israel for years before the conflict reached Iranian soil.<\/p>\n

\u201cTehran is now in open competition with Washington, and others, for political influence in Beirut and Baghdad,\u201d the Lebanese politician, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. \u201cAfter years of claiming sway over those Arab capitals, it now looks focused on saving what\u2019s left.\u201d<\/p>\n

After the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988, Tehran adopted a doctrine of \u201cforward defence\u201d, projecting power beyond its borders to prevent future conflicts from reaching the country. Over time, that doctrine evolved into a regional project built on proxy militias, missile arsenals, covert operations and nuclear leverage.<\/p>\n

What began as a strategy to protect the Islamic Revolution evolved into a campaign to dominate parts of the region, with Beirut and Baghdad becoming its central pillars: Lebanon through Hezbollah, Iran\u2019s most powerful militant ally, and Iraq through Tehran<\/a>-backed political parties and armed factions that rose after the 2003 US invasion.<\/p>\n

The security official said \u201cactive US pressure\u201d in Beirut and Baghdad suggests Washington is seeking to exploit the current regional ceasefire to dismantle the bonds of the so-called Axis of Resistance and isolate Tehran.<\/p>\n

He cited \u201congoing political and diplomatic manoeuvring, including imposing a path of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, and US President Donald Trump\u2019s rapid call with Ali Al Zaidi despite the fact that he remains only constitutionally designated and has not yet become prime minister\u201d of Iraq.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Why is the US offering a $20m bounty on Iraqi militia leaders?<\/p>\n

Embarrassing Iran<\/p>\n

Lebanon and Israel<\/a> are set to hold a new round of talks aimed at discussing the ceasefire, which Israel has repeatedly breached with strikes that have killed hundreds and erased villages. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has focused on drone attacks against Israeli troops.<\/p>\n

The talks were facilitated by the US, which has long argued that support for Lebanon\u2019s reconstruction, its army and an Israeli withdrawal must be tied to Hezbollah\u2019s disarmament.<\/p>\n

\u201cLaunching new and separate negotiations over Lebanon\u2019s ceasefire is intended to embarrass Iran and Hezbollah,\u201d the security source said.<\/p>\n

Hezbollah has rejected the talks and called for them to be cancelled. Iran has also criticised the negotiations, warning Lebanon <\/a>against engaging with Israel. Simultaneously, it has claimed to have made the ceasefire in Lebanon a crucial part of its negotiations with the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran is trying to show that it is still calling the shots in Lebanon, but it is struggling to prove it,\u201d the Lebanese political source explained.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, Lebanon took the unprecedented step of submitting a letter to the UN Security Council accusing Iran of diplomatic breaches and interference. The letter denounced \u201cviolations of international conventions\u201d and \u201cdirect and blatant <\/a>interference in Lebanon\u2019s internal affairs\u201d linked to the Iranian embassy in Beirut and Iranian actors, according to the official document sent to the UN.<\/p>\n

Throughout the Hezbollah-Israel war, which resumed in March, there were repeated reports of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives working alongside Hezbollah against Israel. Lebanese authorities issued arrest warrants against some of those people and signalled that the IRGC was no longer welcome in the country as Beirut tried to distance itself from Iranian influence.<\/p>\n

A Lebanese security source told The National that some operatives are believed to have been given Lebanese passports by previous administrations to operate freely inside the country. The claim could not be independently verified.<\/p>\n

Brig Gen Esmail Qaani, head of the IRGC\u2019s external operations arm, the Quds Force, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad this week as a new government is being formed, The National has learnt. In talks with Iran-backed parties and militias, he reportedly drew red lines, warning against concessions to Washington on disarming armed groups or reorienting Iraq towards closer US alignment.<\/p>\n

Scale, not resilience<\/p>\n

Last month, Iraq\u2019s largest Shiite parliamentary bloc, the Co-ordination Framework, put forward Mr Al Zaidi, a 41-year-old businessman, as a compromise candidate for prime minister. The move has been viewed in Tehran as a potential shift in Iraq\u2019s foreign alignment, amid what sources describe as growing US and regional backing for Mr Al Zaidi<\/a>.<\/p>\n

During his visit, Brig Gen Qaani held closed-door meetings with leaders of Iraq\u2019s main Shiite blocs and commanders of Iran-backed armed factions, including groups operating within the Popular Mobilisation Forces, an umbrella network of mainly Shiite paramilitary groups that Washington views as an Iranian tool.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lebanon in crisis: Attacks, truce talks and the human toll<\/p>\n

Despite remaining one of Iran\u2019s most elusive commanders and surviving repeated Israeli assassination attempts, Brig Gen Qaani was on his second trip to Baghdad in less than a month.<\/p>\n

An Iraqi political source said the visits reflected mounting Iranian concern over the direction of government formation talks and what Tehran sees as growing efforts to pull Baghdad away from its orbit.<\/p>\n

\u201cSurrounding Ali Al Zaidi with an aura of American backing is intended to put him in an awkward position as he forms his government,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWashington has drawn a red line: a cabinet that excludes resistance factions and sidelines Iranian influence. That risks placing Al Zaidi on a collision course with the very bloc that nominated him,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cWashington is trying to force Ali Al Zaidi to adopt a government programme that distances Baghdad from Tehran, laying the political groundwork for keeping Iraq outside any future confrontation with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

The US has pushed for a government that curtails the autonomy of Iran-backed militias, particularly after recent cross-border drone attacks and repeated strikes on US bases in Iraq and neighbouring countries. Washington has tied security assistance and economic support to progress on disarming armed groups and forming a government free from Iranian influence.<\/p>\n

The pressure on Mr Al Zaidi is expected to intensify as consultations continue. While he has not publicly commented on disarmament, Iraqi politicians say he is trying to present himself as a unifying figure capable of balancing ties with both Tehran and Washington without triggering a rupture with either side.<\/p>\n

Middle East expert and visiting scholar Lina Khatib wrote at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Centre for Science in April that the Middle East is moving away from a \u201chybrid order shaped by Iranian-backed militias towards a more state-centred, though still fragile, security landscape\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cProxy warfare<\/a> once offered Tehran a means of deterrence and influence. Over time, however, it generated familiar problems of overextension: weakened cohesion, divergent local interests, co-ordination failures, reputational damage, and growing vulnerability to disruption,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

\u201cExpansion produced scale, but not resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An elusive senior Iranian commander has surfaced in Iraq twice in less than a month, while Tehran scrambles…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113411,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[275,34,94,93,274,273],"class_list":{"0":"post-113410","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-lebanon","8":"tag-foreign-desk-team","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-iraq","11":"tag-lebanon","12":"tag-standard","13":"tag-story"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116572607094300696","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113410\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}