{"id":114350,"date":"2026-05-14T22:34:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T22:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/114350\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T22:34:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T22:34:13","slug":"the-blogs-berbera-is-the-noose-israels-eritrea-play-jose-lev-alvarez-gomez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/114350\/","title":{"rendered":"The Blogs: Berbera Is the Noose: Israel\u2019s Eritrea Play | Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Red Sea has turned into one of the planet\u2019s most volatile flashpoints. More than 19,000 vessels carrying 12 to 13 percent of global trade steam<\/a> through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait every year. Eritrea\u2019s longtime dictator Isaias Afwerki controls the northern shoulder of this chokepoint. He rules a population of 3.5 million through indefinite forced national service, a policy that has driven <\/a>thousands into exile. His regime systematically extracts<\/a> a 2 percent tax from Eritreans living abroad by threatening their families at home.\n<\/p>\n

However, the State of Israel flipped the strategic map. On December 26, 2025, Jerusalem became the first United Nations member state to recognize <\/a>Somaliland\u2019s independence. Full diplomatic ties and an embassy followed immediately. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa\u2019ar visited<\/a> Hargeisa and Berbera in January 2026. This move places Israeli influence directly across the Gulf of Aden from Eritrea\u2019s vulnerable ports.\n<\/p>\n

Geography favors the strategy. Berbera sits only 400 nautical miles south of Eritrea\u2019s main port at Assab. DP World\u2019s $442 million investment has already delivered<\/a> results. Container capacity expanded from 150,000 to 500,000 twenty-foot equivalent units annually. In 2024 the port and economic zone generated<\/a> $45.1 million in added value and supported 2,490 jobs. Vessel turnaround times dropped<\/a> sharply from 64 hours to 25 hours.\n<\/p>\n

Berbera\u2019s share of regional container traffic rose from 9 percent in 2017 to 14 percent in 2024. Expansion plans target 2 million units in the coming years.\n<\/p>\n

Eritrea\u2019s ports operate at a fraction of their potential. Assab and Massawa run<\/a> at 20 to 30 percent capacity. Before 1998 they handled 75 percent of Ethiopia\u2019s external trade. That flow has largely vanished. Ethiopia now routes most cargo through Djibouti. Eritrea\u2019s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) stands at roughly $2 billion, while public debt exceeds 164 percent of their GDP. The regime survives on coerced labor, diaspora extortion, and declining port income.\n<\/p>\n

This is far more than an economic play. From Berbera, Israeli naval vessels and intelligence assets gain direct line-of-sight dominance over the southern Red Sea. They can monitor Iranian arms shipments, track Russian naval activity, and coordinate real-time operations with United States forces and Gulf partners already positioned in the region. This creates sustained maritime pressure on Eritrea without any Israeli ground presence inside Eritrean territory.\n<\/p>\n

Eritrea\u2019s oversized military \u2014 inflated<\/a> to the low hundreds of thousands by mandatory conscription \u2014 remains brittle. Morale is low, equipment is outdated, and desertions are common. Somaliland offers the sharpest possible contrast. Its 6.2 million residents have built<\/a> 30 years of relative stability and self-government in one of the world\u2019s toughest neighborhoods.\n<\/p>\n

Recognition rewards performance, not rhetoric. It also gives Israel a secure forward platform to project influence across the strait.\n<\/p>\n

The data shows the squeeze is real and accelerating. Stronger Berbera capacity diverts trade southward and starves Asmara of critical revenue. As Eritrea\u2019s economic base shrinks, the dictator\u2019s grip on a deeply resentful population loosens. The regime now faces encirclement by a stable, expanding partner it cannot match.\n<\/p>\n

This represents calculated realpolitik at its most effective. Israel converted a diplomatic breakthrough into a geostrategic choke point. By expanding security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and commercial infrastructure in Berbera, Jerusalem exploits Eritrea\u2019s isolation, economic weakness, and geographic exposure.\n<\/p>\n

No invasion is necessary. No dramatic public demands required. Patient consolidation in Somaliland creates conditions for internal collapse on Asmara\u2019s side of the water.\n<\/p>\n

Eritrea\u2019s dictator is running out of options and running out of time. Berbera is the noose. Israel is pulling the rope.\n\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\tJose Lev Alvarez is an American-Israeli scholar specializing in Middle Eastern security policy.
\n
\nA multilingual veteran of both the IDF Special Forces and the U.S. Army, he holds a B.S. in Neuroscience with a Minor in Israel Studies from American University, three master\u2019s degrees (international geostrategy, applied economics, and intelligence studies), and a medical degree. He is currently completing a Ph.D. in Intelligence and Global Security in the Washington, D.C. area.
\n
\nIn addition to serving as a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum, Lev blogs for The Times of Israel, contributes to the Washington Examiner, and regularly provides geopolitical analysis on Latin American television networks.\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Red Sea has turned into one of the planet\u2019s most volatile flashpoints. More than 19,000 vessels carrying…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":114351,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[3496,10725,2492,41,38,5740,423,34,37,1421,11783,7376,2742,1189,49,55,7585,545,4056],"class_list":{"0":"post-114350","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-israel","8":"tag-africa","9":"tag-anti-zionism","10":"tag-antisemitism","11":"tag-benjamin-netanyahu","12":"tag-donald-trump","13":"tag-gideon-saar","14":"tag-idf","15":"tag-iran","16":"tag-israel","17":"tag-israel-at-war","18":"tag-israel-us-relations","19":"tag-israeli-foreign-policy","20":"tag-israeli-politics","21":"tag-jerusalem","22":"tag-middle-east","23":"tag-russia","24":"tag-somaliland","25":"tag-terrorism","26":"tag-us-politics"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116575316431977363","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114350"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114350\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}