Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict<\/p>\n
Thursday was the first day of the Trump-Xi summit, which most of the world is awaiting with bated breath as some indication of a Chinese-supported end to the U.S.-Iran conflict and a reopening of Hormuz. It will not be that simple, of course, and as we mentioned last week, Iran is not China\u2019s priority. It\u2019s all going to come down to Taiwan and Trump\u2019s response to that. Beijing made that very clear ahead of the talks after condemning the Trump administration\u2019s $11B arms package for Taiwan. Chinese officials again described Taiwan as the \u201ccore of China\u2019s core interests\u201d and the political foundation of the entire U.S.-China relationship. That skews Beijing\u2019s Iran response. Beijing is trying to stabilize the broader relationship enough to keep the summit productive while preserving leverage over both Hormuz and Taiwan simultaneously.<\/p>\n
The pressure of the war and Trump\u2019s on-again, off-again strategy in Iran has put Netanyahu in a tough position, with early elections looking plausible as the coalition fractures. The fractures are partly due to the war and partly due to specific military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. Likud submitted legislation to dissolve parliament this week after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners accused Netanyahu of failing to permanently shield yeshiva students from military service. Netanyahu appears to be trying to seize control of the political timetable before the opposition makes its move. However, the\u2026\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict<\/p>\n
Thursday was the first day of the Trump-Xi summit, which most of the world is awaiting with bated breath as some indication of a Chinese-supported end to the U.S.-Iran conflict and a reopening of Hormuz. It will not be that simple, of course, and as we mentioned last week, Iran is not China\u2019s priority. It\u2019s all going to come down to Taiwan and Trump\u2019s response to that. Beijing made that very clear ahead of the talks after condemning the Trump administration\u2019s $11B arms package for Taiwan. Chinese officials again described Taiwan as the \u201ccore of China\u2019s core interests\u201d and the political foundation of the entire U.S.-China relationship. That skews Beijing\u2019s Iran response. Beijing is trying to stabilize the broader relationship enough to keep the summit productive while preserving leverage over both Hormuz and Taiwan simultaneously.<\/p>\n
The pressure of the war and Trump\u2019s on-again, off-again strategy in Iran has put Netanyahu in a tough position, with early elections looking plausible as the coalition fractures. The fractures are partly due to the war and partly due to specific military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. Likud submitted legislation to dissolve parliament this week after ultra-Orthodox coalition partners accused Netanyahu of failing to permanently shield yeshiva students from military service. Netanyahu appears to be trying to seize control of the political timetable before the opposition makes its move. However, the deeper problem is that the war has intensified long-standing structural divisions inside Israeli society itself. Opposition figures Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett are now running together against Netanyahu. They are positioning the election around security failures, national inquiry demands, and compulsory service for the ultra-Orthodox. Polling still places Likud narrowly ahead, but no bloc currently appears capable of forming a stable government.<\/p>\n
Latvia\u2019s government collapsed on Thursday after Prime Minister Evika Sili?a resigned over political fallout related to Russian drone incursions into Latvian airspace. Prior to her resignation, the PM had fired her defense minister after two drones exploded near an oil storage facility earlier this month. Poland scrambled fighter jets this week, Slovakia temporarily closed its border with Ukraine for security reasons, and Moldova reported another Russian drone entering its airspace.<\/p>\n
Venezuela has formally launched its first structured sovereign and PDVSA debt restructuring effort since defaulting in 2017. This is expected to be one of the largest and most politically complex debt workouts in modern energy markets. Caracas says the restructuring will cover all external public-sector liabilities (total obligations ~$150-$170 billion). The move follows a recent US Treasury authorization allowing legal and financial advisory work tied to a possible restructuring. Venezuela has hired Centerview Partners to advise on the process and plans to present a macroeconomic framework in June. Bond markets immediately rallied on the news.<\/p>\n
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions<\/p>\n
Venture Global signed new LNG supply agreements with TotalEnergies and Vitol, adding more long-term buyers to its growing U.S. export portfolio as Europe and commodity traders continue securing North American gas supply amid ongoing geopolitical instability in global energy markets. TotalEnergies agreed to purchase roughly 0.85 million tonnes per year beginning in 2026, while Vitol expanded its existing agreement with Venture Global to 1.7 million tonnes annually. The supply will come from Venture Global\u2019s Louisiana export system, including Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines LNG, and CP2. The continued demand for long-term U.S.<\/p>\n
Iraq and Pakistan are now cutting direct deals with Iran to move oil and LNG through Hormuz. Iraq also secured Iranian approval this week for two VLCCs carrying roughly 2 million barrels each through the strait, while Pakistan reached a separate arrangement allowing Qatari LNG cargoes to move toward Pakistani terminals. Iraqi officials are reportedly submitting tanker ownership records, cargo details and shipping information directly to Iranian authorities for clearance before passage. Traffic now is approximately 5% of normal levels.<\/p>\n
Chevron is selling its downstream fuels and lubricants business across Southeast Asia and Australia to Japan\u2019s Eneos for $2.2 billion as major energy companies continue repositioning around shifting regional demand patterns and tighter capital allocation. The deal includes Chevron\u2019s marketing operations across Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Australia, along with its 50% stake in the Singapore Refining Company.<\/p>\n
TotalEnergies is moving closer toward an FID on its massive Venus discovery offshore Namibia, currently the most advanced deepwater oil project in the Orange Basin and one of the largest frontier offshore developments in the world. The company has now finalized the FEED scope and submitted a field development plan to Namibian authorities for review, with first oil currently targeted around 2030. Venus is estimated to contain roughly 750 million barrels and is expected to anchor Namibia\u2019s first large-scale offshore oil production system through a deepwater subsea network tied back to an FPSO. TotalEnergies operates the block with a 50.5% stake alongside QatarEnergy, NAMCOR, and Impact Oil & Gas.<\/p>\n
Discovery & Development<\/p>\n
Syria signed another offshore exploration agreement this week as Damascus accelerates efforts to reopen its energy sector following the collapse of the Assad government and the easing of Western sanctions. State-owned Syrian Petroleum Company signed an MOU with QatarEnergy, TotalEnergies, and ConocoPhillips covering Block 3 offshore Latakia in the Levantine Basin, an area near major Eastern Mediterranean discoveries including Leviathan and Zohr. The agreement follows a separate offshore deal signed earlier this year involving Chevron and Qatar\u2019s UCC Holding, showing that Syria is now awarding multiple offshore blocks simultaneously in an attempt to fast-track exploration activity. The involvement of QatarEnergy, TotalEnergies, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips in back-to-back Syrian energy agreements marks a significant shift from the isolation Damascus faced during the civil war years and reflects growing industry interest in undeveloped Eastern Mediterranean gas potential despite the country\u2019s political and security risks remaining extremely high.<\/p>\n
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