The National Interest says U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf now risk escalation as America faces debt pressure and the failure of attrition strategy.<\/p>\n
The National Interest writes that the U.S. military presence in\u00a0the Persian Gulf no\u00a0longer has its former purpose. According to\u00a0the outlet, U.S. forces in\u00a0the region no\u00a0longer serve as\u00a0the stabilizing factor that Washington used for years to\u00a0justify its presence. Instead, they are increasingly becoming a\u00a0source of\u00a0risk for a\u00a0new escalation in\u00a0an\u00a0area long exhausted by\u00a0instability.<\/p>\n
As\u00a0TNI notes, the deployment of\u00a0American bases effectively turns regional states into potential participants in\u00a0any conflict in\u00a0which the United States decides to\u00a0intervene. At\u00a0the same time, reliance on\u00a0American protection has prevented the Persian Gulf countries from building their own regional security system.<\/p>\n
The American approach was based on\u00a0superiority in\u00a0conventional armed forces. Washington expected that prolonged military pressure and strikes on\u00a0critical facilities would eventually force Iran to\u00a0capitulate. However, Tehran withstood this pressure, preserved its ability to\u00a0strike regional targets and control maritime routes. According to\u00a0the outlet, this shows the failure of\u00a0the American strategy of\u00a0attrition.<\/p>\n
TNI stresses that the United States should have understood in\u00a0advance that this line was doomed. Such a\u00a0strategy failed in\u00a0Vietnam and Afghanistan, and now, the outlet believes, it\u00a0is\u00a0likely to\u00a0fail against Iran as\u00a0well.<\/p>\n
The authors also remind American military officials of\u00a0the idea from Leo Tolstoy\u2019s novel War and Peace that the strongest warriors are patience and time. According to\u00a0TNI, Iran\u2019s strategy of\u00a0resistance is\u00a0built on\u00a0these same principles.<\/p>\n
In\u00a0this situation, Iran only needs to\u00a0wait until Donald Trump faces the midterm elections, declining public support and the rising cost of\u00a0draining U.S. military stockpiles.<\/p>\n
America\u2019s global military strategy is\u00a0already running into financial limits. In\u00a0addition to\u00a0the $29 billion spent on\u00a0the war with Iran, Washington has to\u00a0maintain overseas bases, aircraft carrier groups and missile defense systems. All of\u00a0this requires enormous spending at\u00a0a\u00a0time when U.S. national debt has already exceeded annual GDP, while yearly payments on\u00a0that debt have become larger than the entire defense budget.<\/p>\n
This situation, as\u00a0The National Interest notes, fits the so-called Ferguson limit\u00a0\u2014 a\u00a0theory by\u00a0the British historian that an\u00a0empire begins to\u00a0collapse when it\u00a0spends more on\u00a0servicing its debts than on\u00a0its own military. According to\u00a0the outlet, the United States reached this threshold in\u00a02024.<\/p>\n
Under these conditions, one solution is\u00a0to\u00a0reduce the American military presence abroad, including in\u00a0the Persian Gulf. The National Interest concludes that the region can no\u00a0longer remain a\u00a0zone of\u00a0permanent U.S. presence because America is\u00a0no\u00a0longer able to\u00a0sustain such a\u00a0burden.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The National Interest says U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf now risk escalation as America faces debt pressure…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116069,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[39964,38,39965,34,3079,39,39963,39966,39962,1705],"class_list":{"0":"post-116068","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-persian-gulf","8":"tag-american-bases","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-ferguson-limit","11":"tag-iran","12":"tag-military-strategy","13":"tag-persian-gulf","14":"tag-the-national-interest","15":"tag-u-s-debt","16":"tag-u-s-persian-gulf","17":"tag-washington"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116581659089871064","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116068","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116068"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116068\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116068"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116068"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116068"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}