Good morning. Water, not oil, could be the resource most at risk in the war with Iran \u2013 more on that below, along with Ottawa\u2019s defence spending and The Globe\u2019s Oscar predictions. But first:<\/p>\n
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Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Tankers sit anchored with the Strait of Hormuz closed.Benoit Tessier\/Reuters<\/p>\n Middle EastA precious resource<\/p>\n It took 10 days of war in Iran to drive oil prices to their highest level in four years. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shuttered, choking the flow<\/a> of Middle Eastern fuel and forcing countries in the region to curb their production, crude prices reached almost US$120 a barrel<\/a> yesterday before falling back. U.S. officials worry that<\/a> Israeli strikes on Iranian fuel depots \u2013 several were hit late Saturday night \u2013 may tip prices even higher. Evidently the markets get spooked by images of oil-filled rain<\/a> falling from Tehran\u2019s sky. <\/p>\n Iran is more than willing to use surging energy prices as leverage, banking that rising costs could compel the U.S. and Israel to back down from their attacks. \u201cIf you can tolerate oil at more than $200 a barrel, continue this game,\u201d a spokesperson for Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard warned on state TV this weekend. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the military campaign at a D.C. ceremony yesterday, accusing the Islamic Republic of \u201ctrying to hold the world hostage.\u201d<\/p>\n But oil isn\u2019t the only weapon in the country\u2019s arsenal. On Sunday, Bahrain said Iran\u2019s drones damaged its desalination plant, marking the first time the Islamic Republic had struck at a neighbour\u2019s water supply. Hundreds of desalination plants stretch along the Persian Gulf coast<\/a> \u2013 all of them within reach of Iranian drones and missiles. If those facilities collapse, 100 million people across the region would lose their lifeline to drinking water.<\/p>\n Short supply<\/p>\n Countries in the Gulf have to contend with extremely dry climates, few lakes or rivers, rare precipitation and depleting reserves of groundwater because of climate change. As a result, they\u2019re massively dependent on vast quantities of water pumped from desalination plants, which remove the salt from briny seawater. Desalination is crucial for the Gulf\u2019s flashy tourism draws: Without it, there\u2019d be no golf courses in Riyadh, no ski resorts in Dubai, no World Cup in Qatar. But the plants also keep the Gulf\u2019s rapidly growing cities hydrated.<\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Smoke after a drone interception in Bahrain, which gets practically all of its drinking water from desalination plants.Stringer\/Reuters<\/p>\n In Kuwait, about 90 per cent of the drinking water comes from desalination; in Saudi Arabia, it\u2019s roughly 70 per cent, and in Oman, closer to 86 per cent. Bahrain and Qatar are pretty much wholly reliant on desalination technology for their water needs, and have little by way of backup reserves. If Iranian strikes knocked their plants offline, they\u2019d run out of drinking water within days.<\/p>\n Dangerous targets<\/p>\n Desalination facilities have come under fire in previous conflicts. During the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War, for example, Iraqi forces sabotaged most of Kuwait\u2019s plants as they retreated, severely damaging the country\u2019s water supply. Kuwait was left dependent on emergency imports from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, along with American mobile desalination units. Total recovery took years.<\/p>\n The trouble for the Gulf today is that its desalination plants are usually connected to power stations, making them even more vulnerable targets. Disruptions can cascade across systems: Attacks on electrical infrastructure wind up taking out the drinking water, too. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s an asymmetrical tactic,\u201d said David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. \u201cIran doesn\u2019t have the same capacity to strike back at the United States and Israel. But it does have this possibility to impose costs on the Gulf countries.\u201d With enough damage, those countries could be pushed to intervene in the conflict \u2013 or demand the U.S. and Israel end their war.<\/p>\n The ShotOur 2026 Oscars predictionsOpen this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.Warner Bros. Pictures\/Supplied<\/p>\n The Globe\u2019s Barry Hertz has a bit of help for your Oscars pool. Here are his best guesses<\/a> for who will win at the Academy Awards on Sunday \u2013 and who should really be taking home the golden statue. <\/p>\n The WrapWhat else we\u2019re following<\/p>\n At home: Ottawa will spend more than $500-million<\/a> on drone technologies as well as a Bombardier jet to be used for defence research.<\/p>\n Abroad: Evidence continues to mount<\/a> that it was an American missile that hit an elementary school in Iran, killing more than 165 people, many of them children.<\/p>\n Health: More than twice as many Ontario adults started taking stimulants<\/a> in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly to treat ADHD.<\/p>\n Tech: Nearly two-thirds of the electrical devices that Canadians scrap<\/a> are still in working condition. <\/p>\n Trips: Canadians could soon pay up to 20 per cent more to fl<\/a>y, as the war in Iran hikes the cost of jet fuel. <\/p>\n
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