{"id":13582,"date":"2026-03-11T01:09:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/13582\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T01:09:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:09:09","slug":"prewar-us-intel-assessment-found-intervention-in-iran-wasnt-likely-to-change-leadership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/13582\/","title":{"rendered":"Prewar US intel assessment found intervention in Iran wasn\u2019t likely to change leadership"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran<\/a> had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change<\/a> in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the finding.<\/p>\n

The National Intelligence Council\u2019s assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report.<\/p>\n

\"PeoplePeople wave Iranian flags as they hold posters of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, showing him at different ages, during a rally to support his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeds his father as the new supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 9, 2026.(Vahid Salemi | AP Photo\/Vahid Salemi)<\/p>\n

The determination undercuts the administration\u2019s assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime change in Iran, even as the strikes have taken out many figures in the Iranian leadership and President Donald Trump considers whom he would like to see lead the country<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The intelligence assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the leadership was killed, according to the people familiar with the report. It determined that Iran\u2019s establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, the people said.<\/p>\n

In line with the assessment\u2019s findings, Iran\u2019s leading clerics on Sunday chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei,<\/a> to succeed his father, who was killed in the war\u2019s opening salvo. The son is believed to hold views that are even more hardline than his father, and his selection is a strong sign of resistance from Iran\u2019s leadership and an indication the government won\u2019t step aside quickly.<\/p>\n

The details of the assessment were reported earlier by The Washington Post and The New York Times.<\/p>\n

Trump and other top administration leaders have given different justifications for the strikes<\/a> that began on Feb. 28, saying they were necessary to set back Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program or to preempt an Iranian ballistic missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the war is not aimed at regime change<\/a>, Trump has said it\u2019s something he wants to see<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the assessment on Monday and referred questions to the White House. Director Tulsi Gabbard fired the council\u2019s acting chairperson<\/a> last year after the release of a declassified NIC memo<\/a> that contradicted statements the Trump administration has used to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trump, dating back to his first term, has been deeply skeptical of the U.S. intelligence community and has frequently dismissed its findings as politically motivated or part of a \u201cdeep state\u201d effort to undermine his presidency.<\/p>\n

Richard Goldberg, director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction at the National Security Council during Trump\u2019s first term, noted that there\u2019s also a measure of skepticism toward the intelligence community because of some of its big misses in recent years.<\/p>\n

U.S. intelligence agencies widely failed to predict the rapid collapse of the Afghan government to the Taliban that transpired in 2021, with most assessments suggesting a much slower takeover. And in the lead-up to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the ODNI, the Defense Department and the CIA wrongly estimated that Kyiv would quickly fall to a bigger and better equipped Russian military.<\/p>\n

Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, said an intelligence assessment is \u201calmost like an op-ed from the intelligence community.\u201d<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, and David Klepper in Washington contributed to this report.<\/p>\n

Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13583,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5607,34,37,7291,51,36],"class_list":{"0":"post-13582","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran","8":"tag-intelligence-assessment","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-israel","11":"tag-military-intervention","12":"tag-united-states","13":"tag-war"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116207875669775785","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13582\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}