We are living in a moment in which big powers are finding it harder to subdue smaller, weaker adversaries and win wars. Russia expected the war in Ukraine to last 48 hours. President Trump banked on Venezuela-style regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n
Neither of those worked out.<\/p>\n
Now Israel is finding that its war in Lebanon, far from dealing a definitive blow to the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, might be strengthening its resolve. Today I write about how, just as in Ukraine and Iran, drones have proved to be a headache for the country with the overwhelming military power \u2014 and what that means for Hezbollah now.<\/p>\n
A missed opportunity, a failing strategy \u2014 and drones<\/p>\n
Disarming Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group that Israel considers a persistent threat, has long been Israel\u2019s declared goal. And until earlier this year, my colleagues write, there was a window in which this could have happened<\/a>.<\/p>\n The wars in Gaza and Lebanon that followed the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel left Iran\u2019s regional allies, including Hezbollah, severely weakened. That gave Lebanon\u2019s leaders \u2014 who would also love to see the group disarmed \u2014 scope to edge toward a deal. Under the terms of a 2024 cease-fire, Hezbollah would gradually surrender its weapons in exchange for an end to Israeli military operations in the country. It was the most promising moment for a reset in years.<\/p>\n Then the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.<\/p>\n Within days, Hezbollah was back in fighting mode, launching rockets toward Israel in support of its patron. Israel responded by marching into Lebanon with promises of eliminating the threat from Hezbollah \u201conce and for all,\u201d as the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, put it.<\/p>\n Now, three months on, Israel, despite a devastating offensive, is finding itself in a deadlock. Hezbollah is looking more capable than it did when the war began, not least because of its widespread use of drones.<\/p>\n And the window for disarming the group? That seems to have closed.<\/p>\n A longstanding headache<\/p>\n For decades, Hezbollah had operated as a state within a state in Lebanon. Its armed units were a rival power to the official Lebanese Army. It was a threat to Israel, intermittently firing rockets across the border. It was also a headache for successive Lebanese governments.<\/p>\n Hezbollah had long ruled out laying down its arms. But it was shaken after Israel killed the group\u2019s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, exploded thousands of pagers used by its members and decimated the group\u2019s weapons stocks.<\/p>\n Talks about disarmament began in late 2024 as part of a truce between Lebanon and Israel. They accelerated after a new president and prime minister took office in Lebanon in early 2025, vowing to make disarmament a priority. Then, last August, the Lebanese military was instructed to draft a plan for dismantling Hezbollah\u2019s arsenal by the end of the year.<\/p>\n I spoke to my colleague in Beirut, Abdi Latif Dahir. He told me that as recently as February the stars seemed aligned. \u201cWestern and Middle Eastern governments saw a rare opening to make disarmament happen,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Then the Iran war derailed the process.<\/p>\n From Israel\u2019s perspective, it had other ways of achieving disarmament. It would do by military means what hadn\u2019t been accomplished through diplomacy and politics.<\/p>\n But it hasn\u2019t worked out that way.<\/p>\n The drone factor<\/p>\n The prospect of invading Lebanon \u201chad Israeli leaders sounding almost giddy back in March,\u201d my colleague David Halbfinger writes from Jerusalem<\/a>. They\u2019d be \u201csending their mighty tanks and infantry in to crush a weakened, vulnerable and somewhat rudderless Hezbollah.\u201d They\u2019d occupy a fat strip of Lebanese territory<\/a>, which would serve as a buffer zone, pushing Hezbollah back beyond the range of its antitank missiles.<\/p>\n But they weren\u2019t prepared for the one thing that has proved decisive in other recent wars: drones.<\/p>\n Hezbollah has used drones<\/a> to hunt down Israeli soldiers and commanders both in Lebanon and in Israel, documenting the strikes in videos it then posts on social media. The result is a kind of stalemate, in which Hezbollah looks more capable than it did when the war began, David writes, and Israel Defense Forces soldiers can sometimes look \u201cstartlingly helpless.\u201d<\/p>\n Abdi also told me that for Hezbollah supporters, the Israeli invasion has only reinforced the idea that the group is a crucial resistance movement to Israeli occupation.<\/p>\n Will the stars align again?<\/p>\n Israel isn\u2019t the only party that wants to see Hezbollah disarmed. Lebanese supporters of the idea argue that the state should have a monopoly on the use of force, Abdi said. That could create more political stability at home and, crucially, prevent Lebanon from being dragged into regional conflicts.<\/p>\n Lebanon has been caught in the middle of power politics in the Middle East for decades. My colleagues have chronicled a familiar feeling among the Lebanese this week, as they found themselves following the back-and-forth between Israel, Iran and the U.S. that would determine their fate: the sense that decisions of war and peace are more often shaped by outside powers<\/a> than by the Lebanese government or the Lebanese people.<\/p>\n There was a brief moment in which Lebanon might have been heading toward a future in which it controlled its own destiny a little more. Now, who knows when that moment will come again.<\/p>\n The latest on the Middle East:<\/p>\n Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain<\/a> yesterday, but they were shot down or failed in flight, the U.S. military said. The U.S. said it also conducted strikes on an Iranian military ground control station, which Iran cited as the reason for its own attacks.<\/p>\n MORE TOP NEWSWhy Russia is hitting harder in Ukraine<\/p>\n After an agonizing week of threats, yesterday Russia struck Kyiv<\/a>, the Ukrainian capital, and other cities with hundreds of drones and missiles. At least 22 people were killed, Ukrainian officials said. The threats seemed intended to inflict a psychological toll.<\/p>\n Still, the bombs raining down on Ukraine cannot hide the increasing signs of Moscow\u2019s weakness<\/a> in the four-year war. Russia\u2019s frontline advances have slowed almost to a halt. Some analysts believe that the stepped-up strikes are an attempt by Moscow to reclaim an advantage in potential talks and to re-engage the Trump administration, which has become more focused on the war in Iran than the one in Ukraine.<\/p>\n That\u2019s how many chicks Nacho and Trixie, a pair of orange-fronted parakeets in New Zealand, have produced in just two years. The super breeders increased the population of their critically endangered species by more than 10 percent, to about 450 in both the wild and captivity.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a wave of young people in India who are becoming \u201ccockroaches.\u201d They\u2019re joining the \u201cCockroach Janta Party,\u201d a movement formed after India\u2019s chief justice assailed the country\u2019s youth, comparing them to \u201ccockroaches\u201d who don\u2019t work and end up complaining on social media or becoming activists and criticizing the system.<\/p>\n In response, Abhijeet Dipke, a graduate student and job seeker, started the party as a joke. But the C.J.P. now has more than one million registered members. \u201cWhat was thrown at them as an insult, now they are carrying it with pride,\u201d Dipke said of the young people in the C.J.P. Read about the Gen-Z movement in India<\/a>.<\/p>\n Join the basement jam<\/p>\n Toronto\u2019s hottest new party scene is literally underground. Some millennials, nostalgic for the time before nightclubs had strict dress codes or expensive private booths, are reviving the basement jam, or \u201cbashment.\u201d This type of party was popularized by Toronto\u2019s Caribbean diaspora in the late 1960s.<\/p>\n \u201cThe basement jam is a pure form of party,\u201d one partygoer said on a recent Saturday night. \u201cThere\u2019s no booth. There\u2019s no bottles. There\u2019s no pretentiousness.\u201d Check out the scene<\/a>.<\/p>\n RECOMMENDATIONS<\/p>\n Listen: An uncanny sense of time travel pervades the music of Azniv Korkejian<\/a>, the singer-songwriter who records as Bedouine.<\/p>\n Read: Maggie O\u2019Farrell\u2019s 10th novel, \u201cLand<\/a>,\u201d is a rich portrait of family life during Ireland\u2019s long struggle against British rule.<\/p>\n Watch: An Argentine comedy is among these five international films<\/a> to stream now.<\/p>\n Snuggle: Is it bad to sleep with your pet? We asked the experts<\/a>.<\/p>\n RECIPE<\/p>\n