At the time of writing, Iran\u2019s foreign minister said<\/a> \u201cno tangible progress\u201d had been made in talks to end the conflict. He said lines of communication with the US remained open, but warned that any attack on Lebanon\u2019s capital, Beirut, as part of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, could lead to a resumption of the US-Iran conflict.<\/p>\n Oil industry executives recently warned the US administration that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> caused by the conflict is draining inventories to levels that could send global energy prices surging in the coming weeks. Gulf countries that export oil via the Strait, meanwhile, are in talks over pipelines<\/a> that would allow them to bypass the waterway.<\/p>\n 2. El Ni\u00f1o could compound effects of Hormuz disruption <\/p>\n Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near standstill since the Iran war broke out in late February. Usually, a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies travel through the passage. And while more vessels have been able to travel through the Strait in recent weeks<\/a>, the numbers are still much lower than pre-war levels. <\/p>\n Experts say the effects of shortages of fuel and fertilizer \u2013 another commodity hit hard by the disruption<\/a> \u2013 could be compounded by an \u201cexceptional\u201d El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n The WMO has said a new phase of El Ni\u00f1o could begin in a matter of weeks and strengthen throughout the rest of the year \u2013 and some weather agencies think it could be one of the strongest ever recorded<\/a>.<\/p>\n This would layer increased risk of drought, heat and regional crop losses in parts of the world on top of a food system already more fragile due to availability and cost of fuel and fertilizer, one expert told the World Resources Institute<\/a>.<\/p>\n More widely, this underscores how extreme weather events \u2013 the number one long-term risk in the Forum’s Global Risks Report<\/a> \u2013 do not exist in a vacuum but exacerbate existing inequalities, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n Experts say governments, companies and aid agencies should prepare for what could prove to be a major systemic shock<\/a> in order to mitigate any potential impact.<\/p>\n 3. News in brief: geopolitical developments from around the world<\/p>\n The UK and Poland, meanwhile, have signed a new defence and security treaty<\/a> that Britain said will improve border security, tackle organized crime and deepen defence cooperation with the European Union. The UK described<\/a> the determination of the NATO military alliance to defend its territory as \u201cunshakeable\u201d. But after the US demanded Europe do more to protect itself, both Britain and Poland have looked to seal defence deals with other nations, including France and Germany.<\/p>\n Discover<\/p>\n How the Forum helps leaders make sense of regional, trade and geopolitical shifts <\/p>\n Show more<\/p>\n The Centre for Regions, Trade and Geopolitics provides a trusted space for leaders to understand evolving trade dynamics, regional developments and geopolitical fragmentation.<\/p>\n By fostering dialogue across sectors and regions, the Centre helps partners navigate uncertainty and explore cooperative approaches to shared challenges.<\/p>\n 4. More on geopolitics on Forum Stories<\/p>\n China\u2019s economic story is increasingly about sweeping self-sufficiency. In amongst this is the soybean \u2013 and a reliance on imports to support changing diets that has become a vulnerability. What does this say about the trade-offs between food security and natural resource use many countries face? Discover more in this article<\/a>.<\/p>\n Against a tense global backdrop, the Trump-Xi summit last month aimed to restabilize US-China relations. The leaders shared a vision of building \u201ca constructive relationship of strategic stability\u201d to bring enhanced certainty and predictability for the global economy. But the outcome offers just limited clarity regarding the future direction and stability of a bilateral relationship that affects the entire world. What comes next for China\u2019s trade policy? There are four trends likely to emerge<\/a>.<\/p>\n In an interconnected world, what happens in one region can send shockwaves across the entire global economy. Supply disruptions, such as the recent effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for example, have far-reaching trade impacts. Yet the global trade system often relies on just-in-time logistics and concentrated supply routes. Read why a fragmented world needs more diversified trade hubs in this article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This monthly round-up brings you a selection of news and updates on the latest geopolitical developments.Top international stories:…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":152535,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[8728,4636,8732,8731,8730,34,8729,8727,8733,8726],"class_list":["post-152534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-iran","tag-davos","tag-globalization","tag-globalization-four","tag-globalization4","tag-globalization4-0","tag-iran","tag-klaus-schwab","tag-wef","tag-what-does-globalization-mean","tag-world-economic-forum"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116720822407223726","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=152534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152534\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=152534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=152534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Extreme](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/v7NrFl0-EqLEcf6M59wQkex90XyN3AuzToUr7VwWljY.jpg\")
<\/a>Extreme weather events are the top long-term global risk. Image: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2026<\/p>\n