(Bloomberg)\u00a0Oil headed for its longest losing streak this year as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz boosted expectations for a revival in supply, with leading Wall Street banks reducing their price forecasts.<\/p>\n
Global benchmark Brent fell below $83 a barrel, dropping for a fourth day, while West Texas Intermediate was near $81. The interim agreement is due to be signed by both sides in Switzerland on Friday, although Washington and Tehran have yet to release the text of their memorandum.<\/p>\n
Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut price outlooks for the coming quarters, with the latter now assuming Persian Gulf exports will reach pre-war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than previously forecast.<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump insisted that the strait would be clear on Friday. \u201cWe have a lot of lanes right now already,\u201d he told reporters at the Group of Seven summit in France. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be open and it\u2019s toll-free.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1781598255_169_-1x-1.jpg\")
\nUS President Donald Trump says that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by Friday. But European allies disagree that flows of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas can resume so soon. Bloomberg\u2019s Oliver Crook reports from the Group of Seven summit in Evian.Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n
Oil\u2019s drop to the lowest since early March has erased the bulk of the gains seen during the conflict, easing inflationary pressures just as policymakers at the Federal Reserve assess interest rates this week. Still, many questions remain over how the interim pact will be implemented, including concerns over shipping safety, operating rules and whether the chokepoint \u2014 which carried about a fifth of oil supply before the war \u2014 will stay toll-free.<\/p>\n
The lack of detail has kept the market cautious. Persian Gulf energy officials said they had been inundated with inquiries from buyers about whether crude could once again move through the strait, while shipping executives and traders said they need more clarity before committing vessels to the route.<\/p>\n
Still, Morgan Stanley predicted that following the deal, Dated Brent would average $90 a barrel between July and September, down from an earlier call for $100. The fourth-quarter outlook was reduced by $15 to $80.<\/p>\n
\u201cMuch is still to be negotiated and key risks remain, but for now, this is a key step toward a de-escalation of the conflict and higher oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz,\u201d analysts including Martijn Rats wrote in a note. \u201cWe see 50% of production back by Sept., and 80% by Dec., slightly faster than before.\u201d<\/p>\n
At Goldman Sachs, analysts including Daan Struyven said they expected Brent to average $80 in the fourth quarter, $10 less than their earlier call.<\/p>\n
RBC Capital Markets LLC struck a more cautious tone. \u201cWe think it will take months to reach anything close to February 27 levels,\u201d analysts including Helima Croft said in a note, referring to the date before the start of the war. \u201cPeak Hormuz flows may actually be in the rearview mirror,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n
In a reflection of the shifting dynamics, Brent\u2019s prompt spread \u2014 the difference between its two nearest contracts \u2014 has narrowed. While still in a bullish, backwardated pattern, with the nearer price above the next one, the gap was 83 cents a barrel on Tuesday. A month ago, it was above $4.<\/p>\n
Further insight into market conditions is due on Wednesday, when the International Energy Agency is due to release its monthly analysis on the outlook. The Paris-based body advises major economies on policy, and helped to coordinate releases from members\u2019 strategic stockpiles during the war.<\/p>\n
The effective closure of Hormuz \u2014 which has been subject to a double blockade by Iran and the US \u2014 has cut oil flows from the region, triggering the drawdown of commercial and strategic inventories. The US\u2019 emergency supply of crude hit the lowest since 1983, according to data Monday.<\/p>\n
\u00a92026 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Bloomberg)\u00a0Oil headed for its longest losing streak this year as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait 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