{"id":162407,"date":"2026-06-16T08:45:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T08:45:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/162407\/"},"modified":"2026-06-16T08:45:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T08:45:20","slug":"iran-war-may-be-ending-but-experts-warn-price-pain-is-far-from-done","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/162407\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war may be ending but experts warn price pain is far from done"},"content":{"rendered":"

Your support helps us to tell the story<\/p>\n

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the financials of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word’, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.<\/p>\n

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.<\/p>\n

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.<\/p>\n

Your support makes all the difference.Read more<\/p>\n

A tentative deal to end the Iran war<\/a> has sparked immediate questions about how quickly consumers might see relief from soaring prices on everything from gasoline to groceries and airline tickets. However, experts caution that any significant drop in costs is unlikely to materialize swiftly.<\/p>\n

Even as oil begins to flow again from the Middle East,<\/a> economists and industry analysts predict a considerable delay before the effects are felt at fuel pumps, supermarkets, and other retail outlets. <\/p>\n

The conflict over the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> not only disrupted crude and refined fuel supplies but also severely impacted supply chains for essential goods like fertilizer, food, and even footwear. Businesses anticipate that higher operational costs will persist, a burden likely to be passed on to consumers.<\/p>\n

\"EvenEven after oil starts flowing again from the Middle East, it could take a while for consumers to see a difference at local fuel pumps, supermarkets and other places they shop (Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)<\/p>\n

“It is not clear, despite three months of war, that anything has been achieved that makes the American consumer better off,” said Brett House, an economist at Columbia Business School. <\/p>\n

“In fact, by almost any measure, not just the American consumer, but the world, is worse off as a result of this attack.” Should the agreement between the U.S. and Iran hold, the receding \u2014 or lingering \u2014 effects of the war will unfold in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

Following news of the tentative agreement, oil prices fell Monday to about $80 a barrel for U.S. benchmark crude, down sharply from more than $120 a barrel earlier in the conflict, though still above the pre-war level of roughly $67 a barrel.<\/p>\n

\"FollowingFollowing news of the tentative agreement, oil prices fell Monday to about $80 a barrel for U.S. benchmark crude, down sharply from more than $120 a barrel earlier in the conflict, though still above the pre-war level of roughly $67 a barrel (Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)<\/p>\n

Yet, motorists should not expect immediate relief at the pump. Refineries typically purchase crude oil a month or more in advance, meaning cheaper products will not be processed instantly. Michael Lynch, a distinguished fellow at the nonpartisan Energy Policy Research Foundation, explained, “The tendency of gasoline prices to fall slowly is partly because the raw material takes weeks to work through the system until it\u2019s delivered to consumers.” <\/p>\n

Regions with insufficient refining capacity, such as the West Coast, will experience an even longer delay, according to Mark Barteau, a professor at Texas A&M University. The International Energy Agency noted that in some Asian and African nations heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, the supply shock led to school and government office closures and work-from-home directives. <\/p>\n

Barteau concluded, “The bottom line is that getting back to \u2018normal\u2019 will be a lengthy process involving many parties and countries. Getting an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to open the strait is just the beginning.”<\/p>\n

\"AA vehicle drives past a Mobil gas station in Redondo Beach, California on April 30, 2026 where prices listed show over $6 per gallon (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n

Travelers hoping for cheaper airfares will also face a waiting game. Industry experts have consistently warned that even with the war\u2019s end, immediate reductions in ticket prices are improbable. <\/p>\n

Airlines procure fuel in advance, adjust schedules gradually, and set ticket prices largely based on demand. This means it could take weeks or months for lower oil and jet fuel prices to translate into reduced commercial flight costs. <\/p>\n

“I think it\u2019s unlikely that we\u2019re going to see a retreat or reduction in the cost of flying at any point this summer,” Columbia\u2019s House stated. Gordon Ho, a professor at the University of Southern California\u2019s business school, suggested that fuel surcharges, which some airlines outside the U.S. implemented, might be one of the first areas where passengers see a reprieve. <\/p>\n

\"AirlinesAirlines typically buy fuel in advance, adjust their schedules gradually and price tickets based heavily on demand, meaning lower oil and jet fuel prices can take weeks or months to get factored into the cost of commercial flights (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n

“Consumers are going to say, \u2018Wait a minute, why are you still charging me a fuel surcharge?\u2019” Ho remarked.<\/p>\n

At the grocery store, the reopening of the strait is unlikely to provide instant relief, according to David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University. Fuel accounts for roughly 15% to 30% of the total cost of food, according to the Independent Grocers Alliance. <\/p>\n

However, an energy shock like that caused by the war in Iran can take months to ripple through the food supply chain and raise grocery prices. Once prices rise, they tend to remain high for an extended period, particularly when the future remains uncertain. <\/p>\n

\"VesselsVessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 16 (Reuters)<\/p>\n

“We\u2019re likely still looking at inflationary pressure on food in the coming months,” Ortega said. “There\u2019s still a good deal of uncertainty about how the reopening will unfold, and it will take time for fuel, diesel and retail fertilizer prices to come back down.” <\/p>\n

Rabobank anticipates war-related food price inflation to peak in Europe sometime next year, while U.S. grocery prices are projected to increase by 3.2% this year, surpassing the historical average of 2.6%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.<\/p>\n

Farmers globally would welcome the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was a crucial transit point for approximately 30% of the world\u2019s fertilizer before the war. Prices surged as supplies were effectively cut off, and shipments are expected to take a long time to return to pre-war levels. <\/p>\n

\"ReopeningReopening the Strait of Hormuz would also be a welcome change for farmers and the production of food globally (Getty)<\/p>\n

The current fertilizer shortage facing farmers may intensify, regardless of the deal. Many farmers are proceeding with planting seasons without adequate fertilizer or are paying exorbitant prices for both fertilizer and the fuel needed to produce and transport their crops. <\/p>\n

The United Nations World Food Program predicts a “devastating impact” on crop yields, and consequently, on food prices and availability, for months to come.<\/p>\n

U.S. retailers, particularly those selling shoes, initially welcomed falling gasoline prices, hoping it would free up consumer spending for back-to-school shopping, noted Andy Polk, senior vice president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America trade group. <\/p>\n

However, shoe companies themselves anticipate their costs will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. While members maintain a two- to three-month inventory of finished products, suppliers may charge more for materials on subsequent orders. <\/p>\n

With most footwear sold in the U.S. being imported, Polk expects shipping costs to remain high through 2026 and 2027. U.S. tariffs imposed last year have further complicated matters for shoe sellers, making it harder to absorb or pass on higher costs. In May, footwear prices were 5.2% higher than the same month a year prior.<\/p>\n

The shipping industry also anticipates a slow recovery. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a freight booking platform, stated that while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected only 2% to 3% of total container ship volume, higher oil prices and broader disruptions have significantly impacted the industry. <\/p>\n

Josh Steinitz, chief strategy officer at ShipStation Global, a business logistics platform, warned that consumers might see higher shipping costs and more online stock shortages through the end of the year. <\/p>\n

“I think fuel surcharges, which then flow into shipping costs, which then get passed along to consumers, are still going to be with us for quite some time from many of the major carriers,” Steinitz concluded.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":162408,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[328,25999,9594,34,23774,26000],"class_list":["post-162407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-iran","tag-business","tag-civil-conflict","tag-demonstrations","tag-iran","tag-riots","tag-top-picture"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116758913196087674","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=162407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162407\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/162408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=162407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=162407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=162407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}