Intelligence sources now say Iran could sever access to a vital shipping chokepoint, creating sudden supply shocks and forcing hard decisions by regional and global powers.<\/p>\n
Recently, American intelligence services have concluded that Iran can close access to the Strait of Hormuz at will, using this as a powerful instrument of influence on the global economy in wartime; such information has been voiced by three sources close to intelligence conclusions.<\/p>\n
Although a framework agreement is planned to be signed on Friday as a prologue to future nuclear negotiations, Iran has demonstrated that it possesses the ability to shut the strait within the current conflict; U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that a similar scenario could recur.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have effectively handed Iran control over the strait \u2013 a weapon more powerful than any nuclear weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2013 CNN<\/p>\n
In addition, Iran has mastered the use of targeted strikes against the energy infrastructure of Gulf countries as an asymmetric tool that could play a role in the future as well.<\/p>\n
The United States has been forced to engage in intensive negotiations with Tehran to ensure the full opening of the strait, underscoring its long-standing advantage on this issue.<\/p>\n
CNN reached out to the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for comment.<\/p>\n
Intelligence assessment and possible consequences<\/p>\n
\u201cThe goal is to create a mechanism that would make it impossible to close the strait again.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2013 a senior administration official<\/p>\n
Iran continued to press to influence the free flow of energy through the strait, which angered China and the Gulf states during negotiations.<\/p>\n
A slight uncertainty regarding what exactly is contained in the agreement, and other risks, will likely cause vessel movement through this critically important waterway to proceed slowly \u2013 weeks or months.<\/p>\n
One of the main reasons for Iran to maintain influence is to preserve a significant portion of its arsenal: missiles, drones, rocket launchers, and hundreds of small fast boats, which continue to hinder transportation through the waterway.<\/p>\n
There are also reports that Iran is rebuilding its military-industrial base faster than the United States expected, and has already begun producing new drones, CNN reports.<\/p>\n
There is talk that allies could patrol the strait after it opens, but it is unclear how this would work; the latest intelligence assessments consider such a possibility.<\/p>\n
Even with an approximate agreement, several sources warn that Iran is developing an economic \u201cnuclear option\u201d in case talks fail \u2013 using the Houthis to close Bab-el-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean \u2013 another global trade chokepoint.<\/p>\n
The intelligence community emphasizes that the administration\u2019s decision to initiate conflict without fully accounting for Iran\u2019s willingness to use the strait as leverage could have long-term consequences and go beyond any framework agreement.<\/p>\n
In ongoing work, American intelligence agencies continue to reassess under what circumstances they could use such leverage in the future, based on how events unfold.<\/p>\n
Although intelligence does not provide a single conclusion, several sources share the view that Iran has strengthened its positions: it retains significant stockpiles of weapons and continues to build capability to act through the strait without substantial resource costs.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are hunting a few mines they\u2019ve found, but ships are already going to sea.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2013 Donald Trump<\/p>\n
Despite parties\u2019 efforts to seek a peaceful path, intelligence warns that Iran still may use Hormuz as an influential instrument, but this will require thoughtful decisions and diplomatic caution from all participants.<\/p>\n
In summary, the latest data indicate that the Strait of Hormuz remains a critically important element of global security and the economy, and a future agreement does not resolve all questions about how to deter the use of this lever of influence in the future.<\/p>\n
The world continues to monitor developments and remains focused on ensuring stable trade routes while countries seek a path toward stabilization and peaceful escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Intelligence sources now say Iran could sever access to a vital shipping chokepoint, creating sudden supply shocks and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":163040,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[28],"tags":[264,102,17581,143,42,101,51224,31429],"class_list":["post-163039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-strait-of-hormuz","tag-energy-security","tag-hormuz","tag-iran-closure","tag-maritime-security","tag-news","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-strait-of-hormuz-iran-closure-us-intelligence-maritime-security-energy-security","tag-us-intelligence"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116760458255339783","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163039\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/163040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}