The timing could hardly have been better for India.<\/p>\n
After months of war-driven supply disruptions and soaring energy prices, one of the world\u2019s largest importers<\/a> of oil and gas was running dangerously low on fuel. A report released on Wednesday by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a New Delhi-based think tank, found that India had just nine to 10 days\u2019 worth of oil reserves remaining. Japan and South Korea, which are similarly dependent on imports from the Persian Gulf, each held roughly 200 days\u2019 worth.<\/p>\n If the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin lifting restrictions on Iranian oil exports holds, it offers the prospect of much-needed relief.<\/p>\n Few countries stand to gain more than India.<\/p>\n Though India\u2019s economy is routinely hailed as the fastest-growing<\/a> among the world\u2019s major nations, it has come under increasing strain<\/a> since the start of the war. Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s government has warned of hard times ahead, raised fuel prices and tightened restrictions on overseas spending<\/a>. Shortages of cooking gas<\/a> were felt in households immediately and parts of India\u2019s industrial base<\/a> eventually started shutting down.<\/p>\n Iran was once among India\u2019s most important energy suppliers, before American sanctions pushed New Delhi to sever ties. As recently as 2009, Iranian oil accounted for 14 percent of India\u2019s crude imports, making Iran its second-largest supplier. By 2019, under pressure from President Trump during his first term, India had stopped buying Iranian oil altogether.<\/p>\n Given the supply crunch, India has little choice but to buy oil wherever it can.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will take the cheapest barrel available, whether it is Russian or Iranian,\u201d said Rajeev Lala, a director at S&P Global Energy based in Gurgaon, India. But he pointed out that India has a \u201crare ability\u201d to capitalize on the return of Iranian crude.<\/p>\n India\u2019s location and the flexibility of its refiners allow it to pivot quickly toward new supplies, including heavier grades of crude that require more intensive processing.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are very few countries that can take all kinds of crude at any volume\u201d Mr. Lala said.<\/p>\n The world\u2019s largest refinery belongs to India\u2019s Reliance Industries and sits directly across the Arabian Sea from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers from the Gulf take two to three times longer to reach China\u2019s giant refineries. They can complete a round trip to India in less time than it takes to make a one-way voyage to ports on China\u2019s Pacific coast.<\/p>\n In recent years, India has been forced to swap suppliers abruptly as Washington repeatedly changed the rules governing which countries it could buy oil from.<\/p>\n U.S. sanctions gradually pushed India away from Iranian crude. China, by contrast, continued buying Iranian oil and became, by far, Tehran\u2019s largest buyer. After Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, discounted Russian crude<\/a> briefly filled India\u2019s supply gap \u2014 until Washington moved to penalize those purchases as well. Oil from Venezuela followed a similar trajectory, first prohibited and then permitted again earlier this year.<\/p>\n The rules regarding Russia have changed repeatedly since 2025.<\/p>\n Duttatreya Das, a former executive at India\u2019s largest state-owned oil company, said it has become increasingly difficult to predict American policy because of what he described as repeated \u201cflip-flops\u201d on Russian oil.<\/p>\n \u201cThere have been so many changes, you hardly know what to expect from the U.S. now,\u201d he said. The uncertainty, he added, makes it difficult to sign long-term supply agreements.<\/p>\n Even so, New Delhi may remain cautious about Mr. Trump\u2019s latest position on trade with Iran. India still does not know whether the terms of the agreement allow it to revive stalled investments in an Iranian port that was intended to give it access to Central Asia without passing through Pakistan.<\/p>\n Other countries, farther from the Gulf, could also benefit from revived trade between India and Iran. India\u2019s refiners are capable of exporting huge quantities of diesel, jet fuel and other products derived from crude oil. Its proximity to Iran\u2019s oil fields means it is \u201cable to turbocharge everything onto the global markets,\u201d Mr. Lala said.<\/p>\n Having been burned by the current crisis, India is taking future disruptions more seriously. It is expanding its strategic petroleum reserve, blending more ethanol into its gasoline and accelerating investment in solar power and other renewable energy sources<\/a>, even at the cost of deepening its reliance on imports from China, its great geopolitical rival.<\/p>\n