{"id":172487,"date":"2026-06-22T18:21:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T18:21:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/172487\/"},"modified":"2026-06-22T18:21:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T18:21:10","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-rebounds-recovery-still-months-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/172487\/","title":{"rendered":"Strait of Hormuz Traffic Rebounds, Recovery Still Months Away"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tCommercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> appears to be moving more despite volatile negotiations between the U.S. and Iran<\/a> to end the conflict, along with the latter\u2019s decision over the weekend to introduce \u201cpassing requests\u201d for vessels transiting the oil conduit.<\/p>\n

\n\tA full recovery for container shipping<\/a> would take three months if current conditions hold, according to ocean and air freight benchmarking platform Xeneta.<\/p>\n

\n\tDue to the litany of disruptions<\/a> in the area since the start of the war, a recovery of ocean supply chain networks would be put at mid-September 2026 in a best-case scenario. Xeneta said in this scenario, spot rates would rise for at least another four weeks before the market peaks.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cCarriers had to act fast when the conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> closed in February, but the return will be far more cautious,\u201d said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. \u201cA sudden deterioration in the security situation would have the most severe network-wide impact if it causes a failure on a mainhaul Asia-Europe or Asia-North America string, so carriers will start with smaller, lower-risk feeder services.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tThe nature of the conflict has made current conditions volatile, thus leaving the three-month timeline up to multiple factors. Xeneta acknowledged that the 14-point memorandum of understanding<\/a> aimed at ending the war and opening the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic also set a 30-day window for minesweeping operations, which \u201cmay well take much longer.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tOn Friday, in the days after the U.S. and Iran<\/a> signed the MoU, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) posted a notice saying that vessels should submit passing requests 48 hours prior to arriving in the strait area.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Islamic republic\u2019s attempted control over the passage also includes mandatory PGSA-approved insurance for all shipowners of vessels transiting the channel. The insurance requirement carries no fee during that period, but the authority says charges may be imposed once the MoU\u2019s established 60\u2011day toll-free window closes.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe situation escalated again on Saturday after Tehran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz because of Israel\u2019s attacks in Lebanon. In response, President Donald Trump threatened to instead impose American-administered tolls in the crucial waterway if a final deal with Iran isn\u2019t reached in the 60-days timeframe, saying the money would be for \u201cservices rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tShip tracking data suggests more vessels have taken chances to pass through the waterway despite the back-and-forth. Maritime intelligence company Windward AI said 25 AIS-visible transits were recorded on Monday, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cThe next 24-to-48 hours will be decisive,\u201d said Windward AI in a post on X Monday morning. \u201cIf neutral commercial traffic continues to transit, the renewed permit requirement has had limited operational impact. If vessels begin holding position or diverting, Iran will have succeeded in triggering a second disruption to commercial shipping.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd according to data from ship tracking intelligence company MarineTraffic, confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over the Friday-to-Sunday stretch, with 71 total transits recorded. Activity peaked at 35 crossings on Saturday before easing to 17 on Sunday.<\/p>\n

\n\tThese volumes still fall below the pre-war cadence, when roughly 130 to 160 vessels were passing through the strait every day.<\/p>\n

\n\tLow-risk vessels, which are categorized as ships that are not sanctioned by any government, accounted for the largest share of the weekend\u2019s crossings at 44, followed by 14 \u201cshadow\u201d and 13 sanctioned crossings.<\/p>\n

\n\tMarineTraffic said the implementation of a broader roadmap toward a final deal to end the war within 60 days remains fragile, citing the renewed regional fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the wider skepticism of the agreement\u2019s durability.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cThe blockade lift has unlocked a clear rebound in crossings, yet the high use of Iranian and Dark routes, unfinished de-mining and still-fragile diplomacy mean recovery is likely to remain uneven rather than linear,\u201d wrote Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at MarineTraffic, in the company\u2019s daily risk monitoring update Monday.<\/p>\n

\n\tAs operators continued waiting for clarity on transit conditions, ports in the U.A.E. including Fujairah and Khor Fakkan have remained heavily congested, according to Windward.<\/p>\n

\n\tFujairah surged from just five vessels on June 15 to approximately 90 vessels by June 18 in following the signage of the MoU, with the company saying Khor Fakkan remained even more congested at roughly 130 vessels. \u201cDespite the reopening, operators have not yet begun departing in masses,\u201d Windward said Monday. \u201cThe fleet continues to maintain a cautious holding posture while awaiting greater certainty regarding Iranian restrictions and enforcement.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be moving more despite volatile negotiations between the U.S.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":172488,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[28],"tags":[3676,102,34,23244,101],"class_list":["post-172487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-strait-of-hormuz","tag-container-shipping","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-ocean-freight","tag-strait-of-hormuz"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116795151650802784","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172487\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/172488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}