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\n Shia Muslim devotees march in a procession past buildings destroyed by Israeli bombardment in Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on Thursday. | AFP photo <\/p>\n
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\n Shia Muslim devotees march in a procession past buildings destroyed by Israeli bombardment in Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on Thursday. | AFP photo
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Lebanon and Israel, under US sponsorship, have signed an agreement hoping to end hostilities, but experts warn that it does not guarantee Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and its implementation depends on Hezbollah and its backer Iran.<\/p>\n
Lebanon took the step of negotiating directly with Israel despite having no diplomatic relations, after Tehran-backed Hezbollah drew the country into the Middle East war.<\/p>\n
But, with Israel saying it will not leave occupied Lebanese territory unless Hezbollah is disarmed, what traps and challenges lie ahead for the agreement?<\/p>\n
Will Israel withdraw?<\/p>\n
Although the framework agreement mentions an Israeli \u2018redeployment\u2019 from Lebanon, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately said that soldiers would remain in a self-declared \u2018security zone\u2019 stretching 10 kilometres from the border, \u2018as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u2018Yesterday … we achieved a historic deal for the state of Israel after direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon,\u2019 Netanyahu said in a televised briefing on the deal. \u2018This is a blow to Iran and Hezbollah.\u2019<\/p>\n
Imad Salamey, head of the Political and International Studies Department at the Lebanese American University, told AFP that one of the agreement\u2019s shortcomings was that it made \u2018no guarantee that Israel will fully withdraw from occupied areas or significantly restrict its military operations in southern Lebanon\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u2018Without firm Israeli commitments, many residents of the south may continue to face insecurity, delayed reconstruction.\u2019<\/p>\n
Netanyahu said on Friday that displaced Lebanese civilians would not be allowed to return home to occupied areas.<\/p>\n
The agreement merely mentions \u2018pilot zones\u2019, where the Lebanese military will take control after an Israeli \u2018redeployment\u2019.<\/p>\n
An initial two zones have been agreed upon, and future pilots are to be determined by mutual consent.<\/p>\n
The Lebanese army would, however, only assume full security responsibility for these zones upon external \u2018confirmation\u2019 that non-state armed groups, most notably Hezbollah, are disarmed there.<\/p>\n
Where does Hezbollah stand? <\/p>\n
From the moment Lebanese authorities announced direct talks with Israel in April, Hezbollah branded the move a \u2018sin\u2019.<\/p>\n
On Saturday, the group\u2019s leader Naim Qassem called the agreement \u2018humiliating, shameful, and a surrender of sovereignty\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u2018This agreement is null and void, and the provisions of the Iranian-American memorandum of understanding must be implemented,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n
Supporters of the group took to the streets of Beirut on Friday night to protest the framework.<\/p>\n
Lebanese Parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri cautioned on Saturday against internal strife and the Lebanese army warned that it would not permit any threat to civil peace.<\/p>\n
In the capital\u2019s Hamra street, Ahmad Shamas, a 48-year-old taxi driver, told AFP the agreement was \u2018an agreement of humiliation and shame\u2019.<\/p>\n
But another resident, Husam al-Beiruti, 43, said that he was neutral towards the agreement. \u2018What is the other solution? Is there any solution? Give us a solution we can follow.\u2019<\/p>\n
Salamey said that while Hezbollah\u2019s rejection of the agreement was expected, \u2018the real question is whether opposition remains political or evolves into direct confrontation with the Lebanese army, particularly if the state receives expanded military and financial support from the United States and its partners\u2019.<\/p>\n
In the agreement, Lebanon requested international and Arab support to achieve \u2018the complete and verified disarmament of all non-state armed groups,\u2019 alluding to Hezbollah.<\/p>\n
What about Iran? <\/p>\n
According to experts, the implementation of the agreement will depend in large part on Hezbollah\u2019s backer, Iran.<\/p>\n
Iran has used Lebanon as a key bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States, sometimes closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to walk away from talks over continued Israeli attacks on the country.<\/p>\n
Heiko Wimmen, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that while the government may be able to \u2018take control of the process\u2019 after the latest agreement, \u2018Iranian influence in Lebanon is still alive and kicking\u2019.<\/p>\n
According to Salamey, the implementation \u2018will depend primarily on Iran\u2019s strategic calculations\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u2018Tehran must decide whether the benefits of continued engagement with Washington and sanctions relief outweigh the costs of preserving its military leverage in Lebanon, which has become increasingly expensive\u2019.<\/p>\n
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