All eyes will be on Donald Trump at the annual NATO summit in Ankara next week, as a months-long effort by the alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte to placate the US president is put to the test.<\/p>\n
Trump kept up his attacks on European NATO allies on Thursday, calling their comparably small military budgets “ridiculous.”<\/p>\n
The US president, together with his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has repeatedly voiced frustration with NATO allies over their reluctance to support Washington in its war against Iran.<\/p>\n
Rutte, who has been dubbed the “Trump whisperer” by some observers, will be eager to convince the US president of European allies’ commitment and their ongoing efforts to boost defence expenditure and capacities, but the potential pitfalls are manifold.<\/p>\n
Iran war strains relations<\/p>\n
One major issue will be whether months of tensions can be calmed between Washington and European capitals over a lack of support from some allies for the campaign against Iran, which was launched on February 28 without prior warning.<\/p>\n
During a recent meeting at the Oval Office, Trump described Rutte as “a great guy,” crediting him with holding the trans-Atlantic alliance together, while doubling down on his criticism of allies such as Spain who had refused to let the US use their military bases for combat operations in Iran.<\/p>\n
Hegseth recently described allies’ positions as “shameful” and announced a comprehensive review to “examine America’s force posture and basing in Europe.”<\/p>\n
In Europe, however, the war on Iran is broadly seen as an ill-advised and economically damaging offensive that does not fall under the purview of NATO, a defence alliance. Allies further felt snubbed by the lack of advance warning or coordination when Washington launched its attacks, in concert with Israel.<\/p>\n
NATO allies are now pinning hopes of smoothing things over on a potential naval mission led by the United Kingdom and France, and pitched by Rutte, to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities have ended.<\/p>\n
But impatience is growing as talks drag on between Iran and the US on a permanent agreement – which allies like Germany have made a precondition for deploying minesweepers and other warships to the Strait.<\/p>\n
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has hinted two military vessels deployed to Djibouti weeks ago for the potential operation might be withdrawn if there’s no clarity soon, warning: “They won’t wait forever.”<\/p>\n
Missiles, drones and submarines en masse<\/p>\n
Another hurdle could be Europe’s military capabilities and the reliance of European allies on the US military for their defence.<\/p>\n
Since Trump’s return to the White House early last year, Washington has increasingly mounted pressure on Europe to hike up defence expenditure.<\/p>\n
At last year’s NATO summit in The Hague, the 32 allies committed to increasing military expenditure from 2 to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), with an additional 1.5% of GDP earmarked for defence-related expenditure, to rapidly expand Europe’s military capabilities.<\/p>\n
NATO is expected to release the latest defence spending figures ahead of the summit in an attempt to show Trump the fruits of his consistent pressure, while capitals are eager to demonstrate that they have not forgotten about last year’s pledge.<\/p>\n
Military industry representatives are invited to Ankara in a race to convert spending commitments into purchase agreements for missiles, drones and other military equipment and to drive Europe’s rearmament forward.<\/p>\n
With the US scaling back its NATO commitments, the perceived threat emanating from Russia is a strong driver for European allies to scale up defence expenditure.<\/p>\n
Russia looms large as Ukraine hopes for fresh aid<\/p>\n
Trump’s tumultuous relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will once again be in the spotlight in Ankara.<\/p>\n
Zelensky, who is expected to attend the summit as a guest, might feel emboldened to ask for more assistance by Kiev’s recent success in disrupting the Russian economy, targeting oil infrastructure and military sites far beyond the frontline.<\/p>\n
Russia, however, still occupies roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, more than four years into the war, and US-led efforts to end Russia’s onslaught have largely stalled.<\/p>\n
The gathering in Ankara will give European allies the opportunity to reiterate their unwavering support for war-torn Ukraine and pledge new military aid worth billions of euros.<\/p>\n
All allies, including the US, are expected to call out Russia as a “long-term threat” to Euro-Atlantic security, echoing last year’s summit declaration.<\/p>\n
More drama on the sidelines?<\/p>\n
Also at the summit, watch for potential high-stakes bilateral meetings between leaders.<\/p>\n
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to meet Trump face-to-face for the first time since he accused her at last month’s G7 summit of having “begged” him for a photo, a claim fiercely denied by the Italian leader, who had once been regarded as enjoying a particularly warm relationship with Trump.<\/p>\n
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Zelensky might also have a potentially tricky conversation ahead of them, after the Ukrainian leader sparked ire in Poland for naming a military unit after Ukrainian underground World War II fighters who are also held responsible for the massacre of tens of thousands of Poles and Jews in what is now western Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Tusk has pledged continued support for Ukraine despite the row, stressing that emotions should not get in the way of Europe standing up to Russia – an approach many allies would surely also love to apply to relations with Trump.<\/p>\n
Mass arrests in Turkey ahead of summit<\/p>\n
All of this will play out against a backdrop of domestic turmoil in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan has long been accused of cracking down on the opposition and curbing human rights.<\/p>\n
In the weeks leading up to the summit, Erdo\u011fan has had hundreds of people detained, imposed a blanket ban on demonstrations during the gathering and restricted access to the summit venue for Turkish journalists working for independent outlets.<\/p>\n
Trump, who could arrive in the new Boeing 747 gifted to him by Qatar, recently credited Erdo\u011fan as the reason why he is planning to make the trip to Ankara at all, amid his anger with other NATO countries.<\/p>\n
In a further bid to cajole the US president, Turkey’s strongman president will open the doors to his vast and ostentatious palace to host a state dinner for Trump and his NATO counterparts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"All eyes will be on Donald Trump at the annual NATO summit in Ankara next week, as a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":188452,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[11542,25443,38,54,31407,34,196,2245,56322,1486,12184,56321,56],"class_list":["post-188451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-iran","tag-ankara","tag-defence-expenditure","tag-donald-trump","tag-europe","tag-european-allies","tag-iran","tag-iran-war","tag-mark-rutte","tag-military-budgets","tag-nato","tag-nato-allies","tag-secretary-general-of-nato","tag-ukraine"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116854063356866554","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=188451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188451\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=188451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=188451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=188451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}