Shafaq News<\/p>\n
Displacement dynamics in Iraq are undergoing a structural
\nshift, as war-driven migration steadily recedes while environmental stress,
\nespecially escalating water scarcity, is becoming a long-term driver of
\npopulation movement. Despite official claims of declining irregular migration
\nand ongoing returns from displacement camps and abroad, climate pressures and
\nupstream water politics are reshaping internal mobility patterns across the
\ncountry.<\/p>\n
The End of Conflict-Driven Displacement<\/p>\n
Over the past years, Iraq\u2019s displacement landscape was
\ndominated by war and its aftermath, particularly the rise and territorial
\ndefeat of ISIS between 2014 and 2017. Large-scale internal displacement,
\ncross-border asylum flows, and irregular migration routes defined the movement
\nof Iraqis seeking safety and economic stability.<\/p>\n
By the time ISIS was defeated in 2017, the UNDP estimated
\nthe scale of destruction at around $80 billion, with nearly 11 million people
\ndependent on humanitarian assistance and more than six million forced into
\ndisplacement. While over one million Iraqis remain internally displaced today,
\nthat legacy is gradually receding.<\/p>\n
The Ministry of Migration and Displacement says Iraq is
\nexperiencing a \u201cclear transformation\u201d in migration patterns, marked by
\ndeclining irregular departures and sustained returns of internally displaced
\npersons, alongside voluntary repatriation from Europe and neighboring
\ncountries, particularly Turkiye.<\/p>\n
Read more: Jurf Al-Sakhar: A decade on, Iraq’s displaced still barred from return<\/a><\/p>\n That pattern is also immediate in the government’s efforts Read more: Nineveh Council lifts building restrictions on Mosul outskirts amid demographic dispute<\/a><\/p>\n Kareem Al-Nouri, Deputy Minister of Migration and He attributed this to tighter regional cooperation, EU The decline in irregular migration is also linked to the When Water Replaces War<\/p>\n Yet while conflict-related migration is gradually subsiding, Al-Nouri confirmed that Iraq has already experienced Jassim Al-Asadi, head of the Iraq Nature Group in Chibayish, He noted in an interview with Shafaq News that Iraq\u2019s water \u201cA single dry season could reverse these gains,\u201d he warned, For Al-Asadi, the consequences are already evident beyond Environmental degradation continues across the central “Farmers who inherited this profession from their According to the Green Iraq Observatory, the country is Iran has also reshaped the hydrology of Iraq’s southern
\nto close one of the conflict’s last unresolved chapters. More than 15,000
\nindividuals have returned through rehabilitation and reintegration programs,
\nincluding Iraqis and their families repatriated from the al-Hol<\/a> camp in Syria
\nvia the al-Jadaa rehabilitation center in Nineveh in coordination with the
\nIraqi government and the US-led Coalition. However, sensitive files such as
\nJurf al-Sakhar in Babil remain subject to ongoing security vetting.<\/p>\n
\nDisplacement, said Iraq\u2019s irregular migration wave through routes \u201csuch as
\nBelarus<\/a>, Turkiye, and Libya<\/a> has decreased by more than half compared to
\nprevious years,\u201d particularly among migrants originating from the Kurdistan
\nRegion toward Europe.<\/p>\n
\nengagement, and the disruption of smuggling networks, noting that reintegration
\nprograms and legal constraints in destination countries, including around
\n30,000 rejected asylum applications for Iraqis in Germany, have reduced
\nincentives for new departures.<\/p>\n
\ncollapse of key transit routes that previously functioned as \u201cpressure valves\u201d
\nfor Iraqi youth seeking entry into Europe. The Belarus route, which peaked in
\n2020\u20132021, has effectively been shut down, while enforcement along Turkiye\u2019s
\nwestern corridors and Libya\u2019s Mediterranean departure points has further
\nrestricted smuggling networks.<\/p>\n
\nIraqi officials acknowledge that another driver has already begun to emerge.<\/p>\n
\nclimate-related displacement in southern provinces affected by drought and
\ndesertification, including Dhi Qar, Maysan, Basra, Al-Muthanna, and
\nAl-Diwaniyah. A 2025 estimate by the International Organization for Migration
\n(IOM) recorded around 168,000 cases of displacement linked directly to
\nenvironmental degradation.<\/p>\n
\ndescribed the country\u2019s water situation as \u201ccomplex and dual,\u201d with sharp
\nregional disparities. While some areas have seen temporary improvements in
\nwater availability, others along the Tigris continue to suffer acute shortages.<\/p>\n
\nreserves rose from 4.7 billion cubic meters last year to more than 31 billion
\ncubic meters currently, but \u201cthis recovery remains highly fragile.\u201d<\/p>\n
\npointing out that projections suggest reserves may fall to around 15 billion
\ncubic meters next year after agricultural consumption, increasing pressure on
\nfarming communities and accelerating internal migration.<\/p>\n
\nreservoir levels.<\/p>\n
\nmarshes despite temporary improvements in water availability. Communities are
\ngradually moving toward permanent water sources and nearby cities, particularly
\nfrom rural areas in Dhi Qar<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\nancestors are now powerless against cracked fields and dry wells. Many have no
\nchoice but to leave their land and look for work in cities that are already
\nstruggling with overcrowding.”<\/p>\n
\nreceiving only a fraction of its historical water share, while reservoirs in
\nTurkiye now hold nearly 80 billion cubic meters \u2014around eight times the storage
\ncapacity of Mosul Dam. Over the past four decades, Turkiye has built about 20
\ndams on the Tigris and Euphrates, reducing downstream flows to Iraq. Today,
\nIraq receives only around 35% of its required water allocation, with the Tigris
\nsupplying roughly 200 cubic meters per second against a demand of 450, while
\nthe Euphrates provides just 151 cubic meters per second compared with the 350
\nrequired.<\/p>\n
\nfrontier. The Karkheh Dam, completed in 2001, created a reservoir approaching
\nsix billion cubic meters, reducing water reaching Iraq’s marshes. A series of
\ndams<\/a> on the Karun River has further diminished flows into the Shatt al-Arab,
\nworsening salinity and deepening water stress in Basra.<\/p>\n