{"id":203312,"date":"2026-07-12T22:41:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T22:41:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/203312\/"},"modified":"2026-07-12T22:41:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T22:41:15","slug":"in-memo-before-october-7-sinwar-predicted-israel-might-respond-with-nuclear-strike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/203312\/","title":{"rendered":"In memo before October 7, Sinwar predicted Israel might respond with nuclear strike"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yahya Sinwar, the late Hamas leader who masterminded the terror group\u2019s October 7, 2023, massacre, assessed ahead of the onslaught that Israel might respond with a nuclear strike on the Gaza Strip, but chose to carry out the invasion anyway, according to a newly revealed document written in the terror chief\u2019s own hand.<\/p>\n<p>The memo, written in August 2022, was obtained by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, and excerpts from it were published by Channel 12 on Sunday. A similar document was revealed last fall, though several details were not present in previous reporting.<\/p>\n<p>According to Channel 12, Sinwar laid out specific operational plans, including numbers of fighters to be deployed to particular junctions, envisioning 25 simultaneous breaches of the Israel-Gaza border fence, to take control of 25 different junctions. He envisioned \u201cwell-trained squads\u201d carrying out each of these infiltrations, with each squad numbering 100 fighters.<\/p>\n<p>Sinwar also planned for a further 2,210 fighters to attack 221 small communities in the south, and a further 1,600 for eight larger ones. He wrote that 1,200 fighters would be deployed to attack Israeli cities, and 2,000 to attack army bases. The total fighting force he imagined would have numbered some 10,000 terrorists, none of whom would have been privy to the entire scope of the plan.<\/p>\n<p>The figures are significantly higher than the number of Palestinians who actually invaded from Gaza on October 7, which the Israel Defense Forces estimates at around 5,600, of whom about 3,500 were Hamas fighters, along with some 580 fighters from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group, and about 1,400 other Gazans.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\t\tGet The Times of Israel&#8217;s Daily Edition<br \/>\n\t\t\tby email and never miss our top stories\n\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\tBy signing up, you agree to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/terms\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">terms<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe goal is to expel the settlers with their vehicles,\u201d the terror chief wrote in the memo, referring to the residents of Israel\u2019s south. He wrote that \u201cpriority\u201d should be given to children and women, while ordering that \u201cthe men aged 17-50 are to be taken hostage\u201d and that \u201call phones must be taken, along with any additional documents they are carrying on their person.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\t<a href=\"https:\/\/static-cdn.toi-media.com\/www\/uploads\/2023\/10\/33XP69D-highres.jpg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-3114176\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/33XP69D-highres-640x400.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"375\"\/><\/a><br \/>\n\t\tPalestinian terrorists take control of an Israeli tank after crossing the border fence with Israel from Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023. (Said Khatib \/ AFP)<\/p>\n<p>The Channel 12 report emphasized Sinwar\u2019s awareness of the likely costs of the attack, noting that he did not profess certainty that Iran, which backs Hamas, or the Islamic Republic\u2019s other regional proxies such as Hezbollah, would join in the onslaught, as the terror group is widely believed to have hoped they would.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the terror chief estimated that Israel would \u201cnot hesitate to use all means and weapons at its disposal,\u201d adding: \u201cThey may even use an atomic bomb, no less.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut first, it will be surprised by the attack and enter into chaos,\u201d he wrote, describing the assault as \u201ca campaign of life or death,\u201d and calling for \u201ca popular operation of returning to the villages and recapturing them symbolically.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, but has never publicly confirmed having them; it is not a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.<\/p>\n<p>The newly published excerpts come after the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center released a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/burn-towns-slaughter-broadcast-2022-sinwar-memo-said-to-detail-hamas-plan-for-oct-7\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">similar Hamas document<\/a> in October 2025 that had been written by Sinwar and described plans to deliberately create \u201chorrifying images\u201d during the October 7, 2023, massacre and broadcast the atrocities live.<\/p>\n<p>\t<a href=\"https:\/\/static-cdn.toi-media.com\/www\/uploads\/2025\/03\/vlcsnap-2025-03-30-19h15m24s235.jpg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-3514355\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/vlcsnap-2025-03-30-19h15m24s235-640x400.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"375\"\/><\/a><br \/>\n\t\tHamas terrorists attack an army base next to the Erez Crossing, on October 7, 2023, in footage released by the terror group. (Screenshot: Telegram)<\/p>\n<p>Thousands of Hamas-led terrorists participated in the invasion and massacres on October 7, 2023, slaughtering some 1,200 people in southern Israel, mostly civilians, and abducting 251 people, including women, children, and the elderly. The terrorists carried out widely documented atrocities, including <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/sexual-violence-was-systematic-integral-to-october-7-terror-assault-study-finds\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">systematic sexual assault<\/a>, and overtly targeted civilians in their homes and at an outdoor music festival.<\/p>\n<p>A day after Hamas launched its assault, the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon also attacked Israel using rockets and drones. Other Iran-backed groups in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria later attacked Israel as well, and the fighting prompted the first of several direct confrontations with the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n<p>Fighting in Gaza mostly stopped in October 2025, with a US-brokered ceasefire deal that secured the release of all remaining hostages, while Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian security prisoners. However, smaller-scale clashes have continued, and Israel still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/idf-says-it-hit-weapons-site-in-gaza-as-6-said-killed-in-strip-including-girl\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">conducts airstrikes<\/a> against some Hamas targets in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p>Sinwar served as the leader of Hamas in the Strip from 2017 until he was killed by Israeli troops in southern Gaza\u2019s Rafah in October 2024.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\tWe can&#8217;t do this work alone.\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img width=\"200\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Untitled-design-4-200x200.jpg\" class=\"attachment-square size-square wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"\"\/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>The war with Iran has been draining for all of us in Israel. But when I heard about a high casualty incident \u2013 ballistic missile impacts in Arad and Dimona that left nearly 200 people wounded \u2013 I drank a cup of coffee, packed a bag, and headed south.<\/p>\n<p>There, I spoke with Shilgit, the head of an after-school program for underprivileged youth. Standing outside her destroyed center, Shilgit said it was a miracle that no children were hurt and spoke about the community coming together in the hours since.<\/p>\n<p>As a Times of Israel reporter, I\u2019m committed to telling stories of resilience like Shilgit\u2019s. But my colleagues and I can&#8217;t do this alone. If you value work like this, please consider joining our reader support group, The Times of Israel Community. 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Sign in to stop seeing this<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Yahya Sinwar, the late Hamas leader who masterminded the terror group\u2019s October 7, 2023, massacre, assessed ahead of&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":203313,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[33],"tags":[27634,1411,37,30351,5744],"class_list":["post-203312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-israel","tag-2023-2025-israel-hamas-war","tag-hamas","tag-israel","tag-october-7-hamas-atrocities","tag-yahya-sinwar"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116909420682743869","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203312\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/203313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}