{"id":203461,"date":"2026-07-13T01:04:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T01:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/203461\/"},"modified":"2026-07-13T01:04:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T01:04:19","slug":"the-publication-of-financial-results-by-companies-in-the-gulf-states-will-provide-a-measure-of-the-real-economic-impact-of-the-war-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/203461\/","title":{"rendered":"The publication of financial results by companies in the Gulf states will provide a measure of the real economic impact of the war in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

\tWinners and losers depending on geographical location<\/a><\/p>\n

\tThe energy and telecoms sectors are, on the whole, proving resilient<\/a><\/p>\n

\tBanks and the property sector are seeing declines<\/a><\/p>\n

The forthcoming publication of financial results by leading companies in the Gulf states \u2013 the countries most affected by the war in Iran \u2013 will serve as a barometer, providing a clearer picture of the economic impact of the conflict that has been rocking the Middle East since early March.<\/p>\n

In countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, corporate results are likely to vary widely.<\/p>\n

The banking and property sectors are the most exposed, given pre-existing challenges that have been exacerbated by the war\u2019s impact on inflation and interest rates, whilst the telecommunications sector has been shielded by long-term contracts and relatively inelastic demand, according to analysts.<\/p>\n

Energy companies faced supply disruptions due to the four-month conflict, but also potential benefits arising from price volatility caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe second quarter will reveal the true impact of the war,\u201d said Tariq Qaqish, deputy managing director of the consultancy FH Capital. He added that the first quarter, which was only partially affected by the conflict that began in late February, had shown only the initial impact on sectors such as tourism and aviation.<\/p>\n

Winners and losers depending on geographical location<\/p>\n

The fortunes of regional economies, many of which are hydrocarbon-based, depend largely on their degree of dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only maritime access route to the Gulf.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s economy, which also has oil terminals on the Red Sea, is set to grow by 2.1 per cent this year, according to HSBC\u2019s forecasts.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Oman\u2019s stock market index, which is located outside the strait, has outperformed.<\/p>\n

The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, which rely on the shipping channel, are heading for a contraction.<\/p>\n

\"Doha,
\nDoha, Qatar – PHOTO\/PIXABAY<\/p>\n

Given that the peace agreement is under threat from further attacks, it is likely that part of the region\u2019s risk premium will remain, said Salman Ahmed, global head of macroeconomics and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, citing Iran\u2019s influence over the Strait.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump declared that the provisional agreement to end the war with Iran had failed after Tehran carried out further attacks on US bases in the Gulf.<\/p>\n

\u201cA renewed crisis of confidence would exacerbate the risk for companies exposed to consumer demand and services,\u201d noted analysts at S&P Global Ratings.<\/p>\n

The energy and telecoms sectors are, on the whole, proving resilient<\/p>\n

Profits in the oil and gas sector are expected to remain solid, as high energy prices partly offset the volumes lost due to damage and disruptions. HSBC has raised its forecast for Brent to $95 per barrel for 2026 and estimates that average prices for the second quarter will stand at $114.<\/p>\n

Although Saudi Arabia managed to maintain the flow of exports through the Red Sea, the United Arab Emirates\u2019 gas sector was affected. ADNOC Gas has forecast a year-on-year fall of approximately 19 per cent in domestic gas sales, due to an incident at one of its plants.<\/p>\n

In the telecoms sector, regional operators \u2014 STC and Mobily in Saudi Arabia, and e& in the United Arab Emirates \u2014 have demonstrated their resilience.<\/p>\n

The consumer sector, which includes retail and tourism, will reflect these disruptions, although the rise in domestic consumption has provided a boost for some companies.<\/p>\n

Among them, shares in the Dubai-based food delivery company Talabat have risen by more than 60 per cent over the last three months.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, flight volumes for Gulf airlines have returned to near-normal levels.<\/p>\n

\"<p>Con
\nAirlines from the Gulf states were the hardest hit by the conflict. Pictured here is an aircraft belonging to Saudia, the Saudi Arabian airline \u2013 PHOTO\/Saudia Airlines<\/p>\n

Banks and the property sector are seeing declines<\/p>\n

Banks across the Gulf are expected to post single-digit declines in second-quarter profits compared with the previous three months, according to Elena S\u00e1nchez-Cabezudo, head of financial equities research at EFG Hermes, who cited a decline in commission income linked to lower commercial lending and reduced credit card spending on international travel.<\/p>\n

This decline partly reflects a strong performance in January and February, compared with a full quarter marked by the conflict in the second quarter, she noted, adding that banks remained resilient thanks to the sector\u2019s abundant liquidity.<\/p>\n

S&P Global Ratings noted that regional banks had \u201cstable funding profiles\u201d, but that uncertainty related to the war is likely to slow their growth. Some banks in the UAE have bolstered their deposits by raising interest rates for new savers.<\/p>\n

Following a boom that has lasted for years, the UAE\u2019s property markets are, for their part, showing signs of strain, and analysts have highlighted the risks that could affect the influx of expatriates and tourism-related demand if tensions persist.<\/p>\n

Some property developers are taking steps to preserve liquidity, such as reducing or delaying dividend payments.<\/p>\n

Citi noted in a report that residential sales in Dubai during the second quarter were \u201csignificantly below pre-conflict levels,\u201d with a similar, albeit less pronounced, decline in Abu Dhabi. Major companies in the region include Emaar Properties and Aldar Properties.<\/p>\n

Francesc Balcells, head of emerging markets debt investments at investment manager FIM Partners, was more optimistic. He stated that, although some property developers were lagging behind, regional credit spreads \u2014 the premiums investors demand to buy bonds \u2014 had \u201creturned to virtually normal levels\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s simply a matter of balance sheets; these companies have very solid balance sheets,\u201d he noted. \u201cTherefore, they can withstand major shocks such as this one.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Winners and losers depending on geographical location The energy and telecoms sectors are, on the whole, proving resilient…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":203462,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[26],"tags":[18775,18776,147,9684,794,34,4027,39],"class_list":["post-203461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-persian-gulf","tag-economia","tag-economie","tag-economy","tag-golfo-persico","tag-guerra","tag-iran","tag-l","tag-persian-gulf"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116909982850196920","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203461\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/203462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}