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\nUS forces struck Iranian targets after President Donald Trump vowed Tehran \u201cwill pay\u201d for killing three US soldiers. Bloomberg\u2019s Kate Sullivan has the latest on \u201cBalance of Power.\u201d Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n
(Bloomberg) — Brent could rally to more than $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions of the Strait of Hormuz persist, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., although that\u2019s not the bank\u2019s base case.<\/p>\n
\u201cEscalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up,\u201d analysts including Daan Struyven said in a July 20 note.<\/p>\n
\nUS forces struck Iranian targets after President Donald Trump vowed Tehran \u201cwill pay\u201d for killing three US soldiers. Bloomberg\u2019s Kate Sullivan has the latest on \u201cBalance of Power.\u201d Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n
At present, Goldman sees Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, and $75 next year, predicated on a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Still, the risks to the forecasts are \u201ctilted to the upside\u201d given shipping disruptions in Hormuz, as well as potentially in the Red Sea, the analysts said.<\/p>\n
Global energy markets have been jolted this month \u2014 with Brent surging back above $91 a barrel \u2014 on renewed fighting between the US and Iran, as well as a threat by Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to blockade shipments from Saudi Arabia. Those flows via the Red Sea have been critical in allowing disrupted Gulf crude cargoes to reach customers.<\/p>\n
While lower global inventories in the second quarter have left the oil market more exposed to supply shocks, a slump in Chinese imports coupled with greater demand elasticity may limit expected gains, they said.<\/p>\n
For investors seeking to hedge persistent geopolitical shocks from the Middle East, as well as from Russia, Goldman suggested a strategy of going long on the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread.<\/p>\n
Diesel markets were very tight before the war, Ukraine was continuing to hit Russian refineries, and there were extra risks to supplies from hurricanes, extreme summer heat, and deferrals in plant maintenance, they said.<\/p>\n
Brent futures were last at $88.54 a barrel. They peaked above $126 a barrel in late April, during the initial phase of the US-Iran conflict.<\/p>\n
\u00a92026 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Bloomberg) — Brent could rally to more than $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions 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