{"id":23004,"date":"2026-03-17T08:10:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T08:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/23004\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T08:10:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T08:10:07","slug":"middle-east-mufg-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/23004\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East – MUFG Research"},"content":{"rendered":"

Middle East Daily<\/p>\n

COMMODITIES \/ ENERGY<\/p>\n

Oil rebounds as Iran escalates attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Oil prices rose after a brief decline, with Brent climbing above USD103\/b and WTI near USD96\/b, Iran intensified attacks on energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Drone and missiles strike hit key sites including the UAE\u2019s Shah field, as Iraqi oil field, and a major Emirati port, worsening concerns over already strained global supply. The conflict, now in its third week, has nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacting energy flows, especially Asia, and pushing oil prices up more than 40% since the war began. While prices dipped earlier amid plans for a US emergency reserve release, renewed geopolitical risks supported the rebound. President Trump has threatened broader strikes on Iran\u2019s oil infrastructure and is urging international support to secure Hormuz, even as the US allows limited Iranian crude shipments to continue. Meanwhile, Gulf producers are cutting output and seeking alternative export routes, highlighting growing uncertainty over supply stability if disruptions persist.<\/p>\n

Gold steady as dollar weakens and Middle East risks persist. Gold held near USD5,000\/oz, showing limited movement as a weaker US dollar provided support while investors assessed ongoing risks from the Middle East conflict and efforts to ease oil supply disruptions. The war, now in its third week, has intensified with Iranian attacks on key energy sites in the Persian Gulf and US threats to expand strikes on Iran\u2019s oil infrastructure, keeping pressure on global energy markets and the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked. Although emergency oil stockpiles releases have helped temper price spikes, rising inflation risks have reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, with higher interest rates typically weighing on non-yielding assets like gold. Gold remains up 16%, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, and concerns over stagflation.<\/p>\n

MIDDLE EAST – CREDIT TRADING<\/p>\n

End of day comment \u2013 16 March 2026. Very weak GCC markets today contrasting a bounce in macro markets. Global markets were stabilising from the start and traded better throughout the day as oil failed to push higher. It was different for GCC bonds though. As mentioned Friday, a lot of bonds sellers tried to sell hadn’t cleared yet and from the start accounts were selling these bonds again. We had a bit of more balanced flows around mid-day, especially as ETF turned from selling to buying. But this was more due to ETF NAVs than anything fundamental and ETFs turned sellers again into the close. RM is reducing risk with about 75% sellers there. At EOD, IG sovgn names were about 7bp wider, both QATAR and ADGB closed -0.50pt in long end bonds. OMAN outperformed closing 3\/4bp wider as it recovered most into the little buying spree midday, 47s closed -0.125pt\/+3bp. Whilst all these moves are orderly, it was a complete gap lower in corps risk. Aldar hybrids 55s\/56s closed -2.75pt\/+60bp, I had DAMACR 28s\/29s about 3pt lower on the day (+115bp). The decompression is on.<\/p>\n

MIDDLE EAST – MACRO \/ MARKETS<\/p>\n

GCC debt issuance slumps amid Iran war uncertainty. According to Fitch Ratings, GCC US\u2011dollar bond and sukuk issuance has dropped sharply since the outbreak of the Iran war, reversing strong early\u20112026 momentum as heightened geopolitical uncertainty forces many borrowers to delay deals. The slowdown matters for global Emerging Markets, given the GCC\u2019s outsized share of EM dollar issuance, though past conflicts suggest activity could rebound once tensions ease. Despite moderate yield widening, particularly among non\u2011investment\u2011grade names, there has been no broad market selloff, and GCC credit fundamentals remain strong, with most Fitch\u2011rated sukuk sitting in the \u2018A\u2019 category, stable outlooks, and no defaults. Sukuk\u2019s share of issuance is at record highs, driven mainly by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while governments and corporates continue to prioritize funding diversification ahead of expected oil prices of USD70\/bin 2026. Although yields have risen since the war began, MENA sukuk continue to trade tighter than bonds due to strong Islamic\u2011bank demand, and yield movements so far remain below past stress peaks, with sukuk and bond YTMs maintaining an exceptionally high correlation over the past five years.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia shifts oil exports to Red Sea amid Hormuz disruption. Saudi Arabia is offering long-term customers the option to receive April oil shipments via its Red Sea port of Yanbu as it prepares for prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, limited pipeline and port capacity mean buyers choosing Yanbu will receive only partial allocations, while opting for Persian Gulf exports carries the risk of no delivery if the strait remains blocked. The move highlights growing uncertainty over the duration of the Middle East conflict and its impact on global supply chains. Saudi Aramco has increased shipments through Yanbu and is even offering contract volumes from the port, though mainly limited to Arab Light crude. Meanwhile, supply shortages are already affecting key buyers, with China\u2019s Sinopec cutting refinery runs and Japan releasing strategic reserves, while some European refiners report reduced or zero allocations, underscoring tightening global oil availability.<\/p>\n

\t\"ME<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Middle East Daily COMMODITIES \/ ENERGY Oil rebounds as Iran escalates attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Oil prices…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23005,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[11325,11323,11324,11326,11329,11330,11328,11331,11332,11333,11327,39,2677,11322],"class_list":{"0":"post-23004","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-persian-gulf","8":"tag-credit","9":"tag-econcomics","10":"tag-equities","11":"tag-fixed-income","12":"tag-mitsubishi","13":"tag-mitsubishi-ufj-securites","14":"tag-mufg","15":"tag-mus","16":"tag-mus-hk","17":"tag-mus-us","18":"tag-musi","19":"tag-persian-gulf","20":"tag-research","21":"tag-research-library"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116243504977112378","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}