While the CBS published<\/a> emigration estimates for 2025 in December, its methodology counts people as emigrants only after they have spent most of a year abroad. As a result, many people included in the 2025 figures actually left Israel in 2024.<\/p>\n Official data for 2025 won\u2019t be available until the beginning of 2027, the report noted.<\/p>\n \t In order to extract the 2025 trends before that, the TAU researchers analyzed CBS data for three-month departure periods. The researchers found that the number of Israelis spending at least three months abroad closely tracked the number who ultimately remained away for at least a year, with a statistical correlation of 0.96. They used that relationship to estimate 2025 emigration before official figures become available.<\/p>\n In 2025, 90,922 Israelis remained abroad for at least three consecutive months, compared with 91,499 in 2024 and 86,509 in 2023. In total, 268,509 Israeli citizens departed the country for trips lasting at least three months between 2023 and 2025.<\/p>\n For comparison, annual departures averaged roughly 60,000 per year throughout the decade spanning 2010 to 2019. During the entire corresponding three-year span a decade prior, from 2013 to 2015, only 183,219 Israelis left for similar periods.<\/p>\n \t \u201cAccordingly, it can be estimated that if the correlation between the two series is maintained in 2025, then the number of those leaving Israel in 2025 for a period of 12 months or more will be between 45,000 and 50,000 Israelis,\u201d the report concluded.<\/p>\n That figure is noticeably lower than the 69,000 Israelis<\/a> that CBS previously said left the country, Ater noted. That\u2019s because the\u00a0calculation excludes new immigrants, mainly Russians and Ukrainians, who arrived in the past three years.<\/p>\n \u201cWe parsed the data this way in response to claims by people in the government who said previously that the emigration numbers don\u2019t reflect the reality in Israel,\u201d Ater said. \u201cThey tried to say that most of the people leaving were new arrivals from Ukraine [who used their right of return to leave the war zone before continuing on to another country], not longtime Israeli residents. So we wanted to show how many \u2018real Israelis\u2019 are actually leaving.\u201d<\/p>\n In any case, Israel has been facing a rare and significant net migration deficit during the last several years, with more people leaving the country than entering it. With the exception of certain periods in the 1950s and 1980s, Israel has always had more Jews moving to Israel than leaving it, according to Sergio Della Pergola, one of Israel\u2019s most respected experts on Jewish demographics.<\/p>\n Combined, 2024 and 2025 saw roughly 50,000 more people leave Israel than move to the country, according to CBS data.<\/p>\n Historically, much of Israel\u2019s emigration has been framed around the pursuit of better economic opportunities abroad. However, many of those leaving Israel now attribute their decisions to dissatisfaction with the government, specifically policy changes it seeks that critics say will undermine democracy, or Israel\u2019s current security situation, according to a recent study<\/a> by Lilach Lev Ari, a professor of sociology at Oranim College.<\/p>\n \t \u201cIn 2025, we continue to see deeply concerning numbers of Israelis leaving the country for a significant period of time, adding to the exodus seen in 2023 and 2024,\u201d Ater said in the report. \u201cThese figures on their own do not yet pose a threat to Israel\u2019s resilience. However, looking ahead \u2014 and if there is no change \u2014 there is growing concern that emigration will escalate in a manner that endangers Israel\u2019s security and economy.\u201d<\/p>\n The numbers do not present an immediate systemic danger to the country, but bring it closer to a potential tipping point, the report warned.<\/p>\n \u201cAdditional negative shocks \u2014 political, economic, or security-related \u2014 could trigger feedback loops that lead to a further surge in emigration,\u201d the report said.\u00a0 \u201cOnce migration exceeds a certain threshold, reversing the trend will be extremely difficult and carry severe macroeconomic consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n Following the report\u2019s publication, Gilad Kariv, a senior lawmaker for the Democrats party who headed the Knesset committee that dealt with immigration and Diaspora affairs, said that he and colleagues repeatedly urged the government to appoint officials to deal with the problem of Israelis leaving in record numbers, but got nowhere.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a strategic threat to Israel\u2019s future, and it is closely connected to the behavior of the government,\u201d he charged on X.<\/p>\n Yesh Atid MK Meirav Cohen, meanwhile, quipped that \u201cfor all they promised that Gazans would emigrate willfully, in the end the October 7 government encouraged willful emigration from Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cEvery day, more and more Israelis are seeing the massive failures and perilous corruption of this government and despair,\u201d added Yesh Atid MK Karine Elharrar.<\/p>\n Times of Israel Staff contributed to this report.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t The war with Iran has been draining for all of us in Israel. But when I heard about a high casualty incident \u2013 ballistic missile impacts in Arad and Dimona that left nearly 200 people wounded \u2013 I drank a cup of coffee, packed a bag, and headed south.<\/p>\n There, I spoke with Shilgit, the head of an after-school program for underprivileged youth. Standing outside her destroyed center, Shilgit said it was a miracle that no children were hurt and spoke about the community coming together in the hours since.<\/p>\n As a Times of Israel reporter, I\u2019m committed to telling stories of resilience like Shilgit\u2019s. But my colleagues and I can’t do this alone. If you value work like this, please consider joining our reader support group, The Times of Israel Community. Your financial support is essential to keep real human reporting like this going.<\/p>\n \u2014 Stav Levaton, military reporter<\/p>\n \t\t\t
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\n\t\tPassengers at Ben Gurion Airport, June 6, 2022. (Gili Yaari\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/WhatsApp-Image-2026-08-03-at-2.58.21-PM-300x480.jpeg\")
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\n\t\tItai Ater of the Coller School of Management and head of the Economists\u2019 Forum for Democracy (Courtesy)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/F100503ffrc01-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tA new Israeli immigrant receiving an identification card, Jerusalem, May 3, 2010. (photo credit: Rachael Cerrotti\/Flash90)<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\tWe can’t do this work alone.\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Untitled-design-4-200x200.jpg\" "\\"\\"\/")
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\tYes, I’ll join\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n