It has long been assumed that a regime change war against Iran would trigger its allied militias in Lebanon and Iraq to unleash chaos across the Middle East, and perhaps even elsewhere in the world, with far-reaching consequences. The proxies themselves have reinforced those assumptions.<\/p>\n
Days before the recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, Hezbollah said that the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran\u2019s supreme leader, would be a red line. Hezbollah indeed launched rocket attacks against Israel this past weekend, spurring an Israeli military response in Lebanon. Two Iran-backed groups in Iraq also expressed readiness to defend Iran, and one of them described<\/a> it as a\u00a0\u201choly\u201d\u00a0undertaking. And two unnamed Houthi leaders told<\/a> the Associated Press\u00a0that the group intended to resume missile and drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea.<\/p>\n It has long been assumed that a regime change war against Iran would trigger its allied militias in Lebanon and Iraq to unleash chaos across the Middle East, and perhaps even elsewhere in the world, with far-reaching consequences. The proxies themselves have reinforced those assumptions.<\/p>\n Days before the recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, Hezbollah said that the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran\u2019s supreme leader, would be a red line. Hezbollah indeed launched rocket attacks against Israel this past weekend, spurring an Israeli military response in Lebanon. Two Iran-backed groups in Iraq also expressed readiness to defend Iran, and one of them described<\/a> it as a\u00a0\u201choly\u201d\u00a0undertaking. And two unnamed Houthi leaders told<\/a> the Associated Press\u00a0that the group intended to resume missile and drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea.<\/p>\n It is still early, but the proxies have been mostly quiet otherwise. That reflects a gap between their rhetoric and current capabilities. The militias are severely constrained by domestic politics and a lack of capabilities compared to the U.S. and Israeli arsenals. It is possible that their response remains mostly rhetorical, paired with a limited number of face-saving strikes.<\/p>\n Hezbollah was long deemed the second pillar of Iranian defense against a U.S. or Israeli attack, alongside its ballistic and cruise missiles.\u00a0But years of assault by Israel have diminished its capabilities, and it remains to be seen whether Hezbollah can still do significant damage.<\/p>\n Eran Lerman, Israel\u2019s former deputy national security advisor, speaking with FP before Hezbollah fired rockets on Sunday night, said\u00a0that the group still has \u201can arsenal that it could use\u201d against Israel but only at a huge price.\u00a0\u201cIsrael has extensive intelligence penetration and can hit them pretty hard, degrading remaining capabilities, including through ground incursions if needed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Hezbollah gets involved, it will basically bring a long story to an end,\u201d Lerman said, alluding to an all-out invasion of Lebanon with U.S. backing.\u00a0\u201cIn any case, we are not really worried about their capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n Hezbollah faces severe domestic constraints.\u00a0Hours after the attack on Iran began, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on Hezbollah to stay out of it. \u201cI once again call on all\u00a0\u200cLebanese to act with wisdom and patriotism, placing Lebanon and the Lebanese people\u2019s interests above any other consideration,\u201d he said<\/a>.<\/p>\n The group also faces pressure from its own supporters, who had to leave their homes to escape Israeli bombings in recent years but now wish to rebuild and return to their towns and villages. Lebanon needs billions for reconstruction, and that funding won\u2019t come if Hezbollah fights on Iran\u2019s behalf.<\/p>\n Late Sunday Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets towards Israel hours after Hezbollah chief Niam Qassem said that the group will \u201cundertake our duty of confronting the aggression\u201d by Israel and the US and will not leave \u201cthe field of honor and resistance.\u201d But the relatively small scale of the salvoes suggested it was an afterthought\u2014as did a statement<\/a> issued earlier in the day by the group that stopped short of threatening retaliation against Israel.<\/p>\n Iraq, a Shia-majority country and home to a smattering of Iran-backed groups, also risks being embroiled in a regional conflict. Kataib Hezbollah, one of the more extreme groups in the largely Shia organization called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), has struck U.S. bases in the past and possesses drones and short- and medium-range missiles.\u00a0Even before Iran was hit, the group\u00a0reportedly<\/a> called on its forces to prepare for a long-term \u201cwar of attrition\u201d against the United States. On Feb. 28, hours after the United States and Israel struck Tehran, Iraqi media\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0a strike on camps belonging to the group, which warned of action against U.S. bases \u201csoon.\u201d<\/p>\n But the various PMF factions \u201care not a monolith,\u201d said Mara Redlich Revkin, an Iraq expert and associate professor of law at Duke University. \u201cAnd they do not follow a unified command or decision calculus. The umbrella encompasses dozens of factions with varying degrees of loyalty to Iran, operational capabilities, and incentives.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThat said, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba are the factions most ideologically aligned with the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and most likely to feel compelled to respond,\u201d she said. In contrast, factions that have integrated more into the Iraqi state\u2014such as the Badr Organization\u2014have more to lose domestically and are therefore \u201cmore susceptible\u201d to pressure from Iraqi Prime Minister\u00a0Mohammed Shia al-Sudani,\u00a0\u201cwho was accepted by the Iran-aligned factions as a compromise choice in 2022 but has since tried to assert more state authority over them and push back against Iran\u2019s influence.\u201d<\/p>\n Revkin added that these groups possess drones, rockets, and the ability to deploy ground forces across borders.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have seen all of these in previous rounds of attacks on U.S. bases. Between October 2023 and February 2024 alone, Iran-backed militias carried out more than 170 attacks on U.S. military bases and assets in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan,\u201d she said. \u201cSo, the capability is there, but the [PMF] have also shown restraint and selectivity in how they have responded to recent escalations.\u201d<\/p>\n Like Hezbollah, Iraqi PMF also stayed out of the12-day conflict between Iran, Israel, and the Unite States last June. And yet, Revkin said, the militias have \u201ca degree of de facto autonomy,\u201d billions in budget, approximately 200,00 fighters, and are difficult to keep in check at the best of times.<\/p>\n The Houthis in Yemen have previously hit Saudi oil facilities and present a danger to oil assets in Gulf countries, and thus to global energy prices. But they can also threaten shipping lanes running through the Red Sea.\u00a0MSC, a global shipping company, has asked its vessels in the Gulf to seek safe shelter as a precautionary measure until further notice.<\/p>\n