A fragile kingdom<\/p>\n
Fifteen years ago, I asked Israeli security and defense officials what Israel would do if Jordan were on the verge of collapse. The majority told me Jordan was so vital to Israel\u2019s security interests that the government would almost certainly intervene, even with boots on the ground to prop up the king.<\/p>\n
I have asked that same question every few years, and today I hear almost unanimous agreement that Israel would not put its soldiers in harm\u2019s way for Jordan. That does not preclude working behind the scenes or employing special forces if such actions could prove decisive.<\/p>\n
Iran has had its eyes on Jordan for a long time. Even with the degradation of its proxy network, Tehran still views Jordan as fertile ground for destabilization, sowing anarchy, and supporting aligned terrorist groups to threaten Israel, its principal target for destruction.<\/p>\n
The active phase of the war with Iran will end sooner or later, and if the Shiite jihadist regime survives, it will regard that alone as a victory. Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE, and other neighboring states will once again have to accommodate an emboldened and hostile theocracy. Tehran will regroup, rebuild, and continue pursuing its Shi\u2019ite Twelver jihadist mission of regional expansion and domination.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s eastern opening<\/p>\n
Just as Hamas, an Arab Sunni terrorist organization, aligned itself with Persian Shi\u2019ites for a common strategic purpose, radical Sunnis in Jordan would likely accept Iranian Shi\u2019ite financial support<\/a>. Iran does not need to control Jordan to achieve its objectives. It needs only to create enough chaos to weaken the kingdom and threaten Israel.<\/p>\n Jordan is indispensable to Israel\u2019s national security because it serves as the country\u2019s strategic eastern buffer. For more than three decades, the peace treaty with Jordan has allowed Israel to concentrate its military resources on more immediate threats from Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Iran.<\/p>\n Should Jordan become unstable or fall under the influence of Iran or Islamist forces, Israel would suddenly face an active eastern front stretching hundreds of kilometers. Weapons, terrorists, and Iranian-backed militias could flow through Iraq into Jordan and ultimately toward the Jordan Valley and the West Bank, fundamentally altering Israel\u2019s security environment.<\/p>\n Preserving Jordan\u2019s stability is therefore not simply about protecting a peace treaty; it is about preventing Israel\u2019s longest border from becoming its next major front.<\/p>\nIsraeli security forces close off a road leading to the King Hussein (Allenby) bridge, the main border crossing between Israel West Bank and Jordan. Israel is planning an upgrade to security along its border with Jordan amid concerns of potential emergence of new threats along its eastern front. (credit: Ahmad Gharabli\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n