Topline<\/p>\n
A mystery Polymarket trader with a history of success bet nearly $179,000 on U.S.-Iran nuclear deal talks failing by the end of the year, placing the wager as peace talks have stalled between the two countries after nearly six months of war.<\/p>\n
The bet was made Wednesday. <\/p>\n
Photo by Samuel Boivin\/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesKey Facts<\/p>\n
The Polymarket user known as \u201cThe Spirit of Ukraine,\u201d who is ranked No. 68 on the prediction platform with a 59% win rate, placed $178,574 on \u201cNo\u201d at 89.6% implied odds Wednesday morning, according to market data<\/a>.<\/p>\n The bet is the largest one placed on the nuclear talks proposition by far, accounting for close to half the value of trades made in the last 24 hours.<\/p>\n $15.5 million has been placed on the proposition, with the \u201cNo\u201d outcome around 90% on Polymarket, meaning traders are collectively giving a successful nuclear deal only about a 10% chance of closing by the end of the year, falling from 30% earlier this month.<\/p>\n Wan123, a user who has made nearly $1.2 million on Polymarket, is the largest \u201cYes\u201d better, buying 100,000 contracts valued at $100,132.<\/p>\n Big Number<\/p>\n $7.7 million. That is how much money \u201cThe Spirit of Ukraine\u201d has deposited on Polymarket over their lifetime. The user holds 105 open positions, according to Polymarket, has made $4.1 million in returns on Polymarket and recorded $1.9 million in losses, for $2.3 million in profit.<\/p>\n Surprising Fact<\/p>\n The Polymarket portfolio of \u201cThe Spirit of Ukraine\u201d is up around 185% over the last 30 days.<\/p>\n Key Background<\/p>\n A 60-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which largely unraveled, expired on Monday following weeks worth of clashes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 25% of the world\u2019s maritime oil trade. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday the country was shifting to a \u201cfully offensive\u201d military posture because of stalled peace talks. President Donald Trump said Tuesday \u201cthere are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,\u201d contradicting remarks made by special envoy Jared Kushner, who called talks “probably more robust” than ever.<\/p>\n Further Reading<\/p>\n