{"id":261486,"date":"2026-08-23T17:24:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-23T17:24:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/261486\/"},"modified":"2026-08-23T17:24:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-23T17:24:09","slug":"irans-islamic-republic-is-losing-its-grip-as-calls-for-regime-change-grow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/261486\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Islamic Republic is losing its grip as calls for regime change grow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Iran is in turmoil, with the ruling establishment moving weapons depots away from city centers. It does not want history to repeat itself. As Akbar Rafsanjani, a former Iranian president, once said, \u201cWe will not repeat the shah\u2019s mistake!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On February 9, 1979, the Iranian National Television, at the direction of a director sympathetic to the leftist movement, broadcast footage of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/middle-east\/iran-news\/article-862889\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini<\/a>\u2019s return.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">That same day, in another corner of Tehran, there was a demonstration in support of the shah and the Constitution. Yet the world\u2019s media \u2013 heavily influenced by leftist thinking \u2013 was far more inclined to turn Khomeini into an idol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">That same day, clashes broke out between Air Force technicians and the shah\u2019s Imperial Guard. From a military training center, Khomeini\u2019s supporters opened fire. Meanwhile, Khomeini was staying at a school only four or five miles from that military facility, fomenting unrest.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (L) who became Iran's first Supreme Leader after the Islamic Revolution and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who offered the Shah of Iran to dispose of the cleric\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"822\" height=\"829\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" style=\"color:transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/images.jpost.com\/image\/upload\/f_auto,fl_lossy\/c_fill,g_faces:center,h_537,w_822\/671514\"\/>Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (L) who became Iran&#8217;s first Supreme Leader after the Islamic Revolution and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who offered the Shah of Iran to dispose of the cleric (credit: Canva\/GABRIEL DUVAL\/AFP via Getty Images\/Scott Peterson\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Suddenly, weapons fell into the hands of civilians. People then attacked police stations and military barracks, and Khomeini rode the wave, issuing a decree of Islamic jihad \u2013 Islamic terrorism. Suddenly, Islamist and Marxist terrorists hiding behind Khomeini\u2019s clerical robe plunged the capital into chaos.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">The following day, the navy joined the air force, and on February 11, the military declared neutrality \u2013 which, in practice, amounted to a betrayal of the shah.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">These days, the ruling establishment in Iran is again paralyzed. They say that former supreme leader Ali Khamenei\u2019s crazy son, Mojtaba, is still alive, but whether he is dead or alive is of no importance to Iranian society. The regime does not fear the United States or Israel. Its nightmare is a nationwide uprising by the Iranian people against the current ruling establishment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">In reality, however, the regime has been brought to its knees. Mojtaba certainly has not become Gandhi, though for now the authorities have made urban metro systems free, so that society will not rise over higher gasoline prices \u2013 a society that is waiting for a spark.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">That spark has nothing to do with the United States or Israel. The Iranian people are not asleep; this is an awake and intelligent society.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">The weakness of the current ruling establishment is the possibility that a society living under the pressure of dictatorship could gain access to weapons. That historical precedent is the regime\u2019s nightmare.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">If it happens, Iran could enter a civil war, because the religious forces and supporters of the regime would transform themselves into underground terrorist cells operating out of mosques, unwilling to surrender power peacefully.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">But this will undoubtedly happen. What we are witnessing now is the calm before the storm. Severe poverty, public discontent, and shortages are tightening their grip around Iran\u2019s throat.<\/p>\n<p>The first stage is the transition away from the sinister mafia of the Shi\u2019ite mullahs, who are the root of the promotion of ignorance and superstition in Iran. Naturally, no society reaches prosperity, freedom, or democracy through the Shi\u2019ite mullah. Nor will the Iranian people climb down into a well on a rope held by people in Washington such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/american-politics\/article-906291\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">US Vice President JD Vance<\/a>, who place their hopes in endless, exhausting negotiations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Iranians know the nature and character of the Shi\u2019ite mullah. Yet someone like Vance speaks as though, during the past 48 years, he has neither read a newspaper nor listened to the radio. But his ear is open to the Islamic Republic\u2019s notorious lobby in Washington.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Naturally, along this difficult and winding road, if Israel and the United States help the Iranian people achieve freedom, so much the better, and they deserve gratitude. But the determining variables in this equation will not be the United States and Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Some of those same media outlets associated with the political Left do not want to examine the most basic question: Who fired first? The elder Khamenei, who was worse than Genghis Khan, ordered the killing of people. Members of this criminal faction \u2013 such as Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the IRGC; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and others \u2013 were accomplices to this crime. Today, they surround themselves with knife-wielding thugs, street toughs, and hooligans simply to stay alive. No one even knows where they sleep at night.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">A strange kind of fragmentation and disintegration has emerged within Iran\u2019s ruling establishment. The Iranian regime is deeply confused and no longer has the power to control an enraged society.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">History is repeating itself. The Seleucids took Iran, as did the Mongols and the Seljuks. Yet each time, Iranians rebuilt the foundations of their civilization, reclaimed their sovereignty, and restored the institution of monarchy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">At the foundation of Iranian thought lies the philosophy of Zoroaster. In Iranian civilization and history, the shah means the guardian of the law, the representative of the law, and the symbol of law, truth, and righteousness. This is fundamentally different from the sultan \u2013 the Islamic dictator. The history of Iran is a living history. Iranians have lost sovereignty many times, only to reclaim it again.<\/p>\n<p>Reading the mullah&#8217;s playbook<\/p>\n<p>These days, the astute <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/diaspora\/antisemitism\/article-904467\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Canadian Conservative Party<\/a> leader Pierre Poilievre has invited Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to Canada. His party believes that over the next two years, the Liberals may lose power, and that Iranian Canadians will welcome the reputable and respected Iranian prince. Canada, as a G7 country, is also placing a stamp of recognition on the credibility of Pahlavi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Indeed, Canada\u2019s Conservatives have played their ace \u2013 and outplayed their rivals. This has created fear and anxiety within Canada\u2019s Liberal Party. They know that Iranian Canadians will stand behind the Conservatives, while the Liberals apparently have not produced, and do not possess, a particularly impressive or acceptable record.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">This is an important sign that the world is gradually beginning to understand: The Iranian regime is on its way out, and it is time to think seriously about an alternative.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">The mathematical curve of this equation suggests that others will eventually follow the same path. Gradually, the world\u2019s major countries will come knocking on Pahlavi\u2019s door, because there is no one else to whom responsibility for Iran can realistically be entrusted after the collapse; someone capable of preserving security during the transitional period, holding free elections, and allowing Iranian society to vote, choose, and reclaim its sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Soon, countries around the world will be knocking on Pahlavi\u2019s door, hoping to benefit from the opportunity and become economic partners in Iran\u2019s future. He is the only credible figure in the Iranian opposition and the only serious political figure opposing the Iranian regime.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Some political figures prefer to deny the reality of the Iranian political landscape. But you cannot cover the sun with mud. Pahlavi is the only game in town.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Unfortunately, organizations such as the CIA still have little understanding of the destructive mind of the Shi\u2019ite mullah. They have not read the mullah\u2019s playbook. They refuse to accept that destruction, terrorism, and subversion will continue until the very last moment of this regime\u2019s existence.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-paragraph-section article-body-paragraph\">Tehran operates within the orbit of Moscow, Pyongyang, and Beijing. The United States will gain the upper hand only when it respects the demands, needs, and thinking of Iranian society. Yet the CIA still lacks the will for regime change.<\/p>\n<p>Nor can anyone sitting behind a desk at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/international\/article-906052\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CIA\u2019s Langley headquarters<\/a> produce an accurate analysis of a boiling Iranian society. The cancerous tumor of the Iranian regime requires chemotherapy and surgery. You cannot cure that disease with a baby aspirin.<\/p>\n<p>The writer is a Middle East political analyst. His latest book, Tehran\u2019s Dictator, examines the theocratic era of Ali Khamenei (1989-2026). @EQFard<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Iran is in turmoil, with the ruling establishment moving weapons depots away from city centers. It does not&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":261487,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[949,2268,34,40632,707,2289,1868,69,545,51],"class_list":["post-261486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-iran","tag-canada","tag-cia","tag-iran","tag-islamic-jihad","tag-islamic-regime","tag-mojtaba-khamenei","tag-reza-pahlavi","tag-tehran","tag-terrorism","tag-united-states"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/117145991096289334","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=261486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261486\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/261487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=261486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=261486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=261486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}