The shuttle system has allowed Gulf producers to keep more oil moving despite Iranian attacks and the failure of negotiations to restore normal navigation. It has also created a widening gap between the traffic visible on commercial tracking platforms and the amount of oil believed to be passing through the strait.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Greek-owned\u00a0very large\u00a0crude carrier Kiku\u00a0provides\u00a0one example. After loading crude at Qatar\u2019s Mesaieed terminal in late July, the tanker sailed towards Hormuz before its Automatic Identification System, known as AIS, stopped transmitting near Dubai on July 31.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Its signal reappeared the following morning off Fujairah, on the other side of the strait, where it anchored alongside another Greek-owned tanker, Nave Electron, for a ship-to-ship transfer.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The two vessels remained together for about a week. Nave Electron then left the area carrying crude towards Ningbo in China, while Kiku stayed near Fujairah before switching off its signal again on August 14. It reappeared inside the Persian Gulf the following day, heading back towards Qatar.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Nissos Kythnos followed a similar pattern. Satellite images showed the Greek-owned tanker alongside Front\u00a0Otra\u00a0in the Gulf of Oman after completing a dark crossing. Front\u00a0Otra\u00a0was later detected heading towards Taiwan, while Nissos Kythnos returned to the Gulf.\u00a0<\/p>\n
More than a dozen such transfers were\u00a0identified\u00a0over two days, with receiving tankers later travelling to China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines,\u00a0Vietnam\u00a0and Thailand.\u00a0<\/p>\n
These journeys are no longer exceptional. Around\u00a080 per cent of Hormuz traffic during the past two weeks travelled without an active AIS signal, according to Kpler, up from the 62 per cent recorded in\u00a0earlier tanker data<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The blackouts help explain why two\u00a0very different\u00a0pictures of Hormuz have\u00a0emerged. US energy officials estimate that\u00a08 million to 9 million barrels of oil per day\u00a0are crossing the strait,\u00a0roughly twice\u00a0the volume captured through conventional ship-tracking data.\u00a0<\/p>\n The\u00a0latest traffic figures<\/a>\u00a0showed just\u00a017 commodity vessels passing during the weekend, with 13 crossings on Saturday and four on Sunday. AIS-detected activity remained about\u00a090 per cent below pre-conflict levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n An AIS blackout does not automatically point to wrongdoing. International maritime rules allow a ship\u2019s master to disable the system when continued transmission could place the vessel and crew at risk. However, the missing signals make it far harder for shipowners, charterers,\u00a0traders\u00a0and insurers to\u00a0establish\u00a0which route a vessel used, where its cargo was transferred and how much oil is\u00a0actually leaving\u00a0the Gulf.\u00a0<\/p>\n The physical danger also\u00a0remains\u00a0high. UK Maritime Trade Operations has recorded\u00a023 projectile strikes since July 6, causing damage to bridges, engine\u00a0rooms\u00a0and vessel structures.\u00a0<\/p>\n With movements through Hormuz still restricted, Gulf producers have increased their use of pipelines and alternative export terminals. Saudi Arabia is sending about\u00a05 million barrels per day\u00a0through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while other regional producers have redirected another 2 million barrels away from the strait.\u00a0<\/p>\n Those alternatives now face their own threat. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council, warned that Tehran could target other regional oil routes if\u00a0neighbouring\u00a0countries support the\u00a0new\u00a0US sanctions<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Rezaei said that \u201cnot a single drop of oil\u201d would leave the Persian Gulf if the economic pressure continued. Although he did not\u00a0identify\u00a0individual facilities, the warning places greater attention on Yanbu, the UAE export hub of Fujairah and Egypt\u2019s SUMED pipeline system.\u00a0<\/p>\n Iran raised the pressure further on Monday by warning that vessels\u00a0failing to follow\u00a0its transit arrangements could face\u00a0fines,\u00a0detention\u00a0and confiscation.\u00a0<\/p>\n The newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority also said ships conducting transfers with vessels on its restricted list could themselves be blacklisted. Under the\u00a0new restrictions<\/a>, cargo owners have been told to check the list before arranging voyages connected with the Gulf.\u00a0<\/p>\n The move directly challenges the shuttle\u00a0system\u00a0now keeping oil moving. It also expands the risk beyond the passage itself, forcing managers and charterers to examine the status of every vessel involved in a transfer.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cyprus is already seeing the disruption turn into a direct\u00a0logistics\u00a0cost. From Monday,\u00a0Maersk doubled<\/a>\u00a0its fuel surcharge on truck transport connected with import and export shipments in Cyprus to\u00a010 per cent from 5 per cent, citing higher fuel costs caused by the situation in the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n The temporary charge will be reviewed weekly instead of monthly and will appear on invoices as an Export Fuel Surcharge and Import Fuel Surcharge. It will remain in place for as long as the company\u00a0considers\u00a0necessary to cover its additional costs.\u00a0<\/p>\n The island also\u00a0remains\u00a0exposed\u00a0at\u00a0sea. The Shipping Deputy Ministry\u2019s\u00a0latest published figure<\/a>\u00a0placed\u00a023 Cyprus-flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.\u00a0<\/p>\n The\u00a0GFS Galaxy attack<\/a>\u00a0in July has already shown the risks facing the Cyprus register. The container ship suffered extensive engine-room damage, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and leaving one seafarer dead.\u00a0<\/p>\n International Chamber of Shipping\u00a0(ICS)\u00a0Secretary General Thomas Kazakos, the former head of the Cyprus Shipping Chamber\u00a0(CSC), has challenged attempts to impose new clearance requirements.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kazakos said there was\u00a0\u201cno legal mechanism by which a toll or restrictions can be placed\u201d\u00a0on vessels passing through Hormuz, calling for ships to travel through the strait without compulsory charges and clearance mechanisms.\u00a0Industry position<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n The Red Sea provides no simple escape from the danger. MSC has quietly sent\u00a0seven container ships<\/a>\u00a0through Bab el-Mandeb with their AIS signals switched off, testing a return to the Suez Canal without formally announcing a wider restoration of services.\u00a0<\/p>\n The vessels included the 24,346-TEU MSC Irina, the 23,782-TEU MSC Amelia, the 19,224-TEU MSC\u00a0Oliver\u00a0and the 15,576-TEU MSC Napoli.\u00a0<\/p>\n Sailing through Suez can cut\u00a0seven to 14 days\u00a0from voyages between Asia and Europe, lowering fuel costs and returning ships to service more quickly. Maersk has already moved about 30 per cent of the volumes previously diverted around Africa back through the Red Sea, while other major carriers are also increasing their use of the route.\u00a0<\/p>\n