{"id":267238,"date":"2026-08-27T17:53:53","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T17:53:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/267238\/"},"modified":"2026-08-27T17:53:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T17:53:53","slug":"brian-sullivan-gulf-nations-are-unlikely-to-agree-to-a-toll-plan-for-strait-of-hormuz-safe-passage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/267238\/","title":{"rendered":"Brian Sullivan: Gulf nations are unlikely to agree to a toll plan for Strait of Hormuz safe passage"},"content":{"rendered":"

POWER POINT<\/p>\n

What I’m hearing from energy insiders<\/p>\n

The Great Hormuz Debate.<\/p>\n

Exactly how many ships – and how much oil – are getting through the Strait of Hormuz? With apologies to Shakespeare’s Hamlet, that is the question.<\/p>\n

Let’s start with what we\u00a0do\u00a0know.<\/p>\n

We know that the amount of oil and other products is well below its pre-war levels. No one is arguing the market is supplied at the same level it was at the start of the year, when fully 20% of all the world’s oil was sourced through the narrow Gulf corridor.<\/p>\n

We also know that Iran continues to assert control over significant portions of ship traffic. You can debate if they actually do, but you can’t debate that they claim power over the seaway.<\/p>\n

If you believe Iran, very little oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz. If you believe the United States government, a fairly significant amount of oil is successfully making it out, largely in part because of escorts from the U.S. Navy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kpler – the parent company of Marine Traffic, whose data we have used extensively (thank you to them!) over the last few months – noted risks rising again in the region before the market got a couple more positive headlines.<\/p>\n

Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards<\/p>\n

Those headlines were twofold:<\/p>\n

First, Iran and Oman\u00a0claim<\/a>\u00a0to be close to some kind of deal where the two countries establish a joint shipping corridor through the Strait. The idea is that the cross-waterway neighbors would help ensure safe passage for ships, clear any mines, and more. We don’t have many more details than that, but that scant communique was enough to help send oil down a couple of bucks on Tuesday. The positive tone was nice, but let’s be clear: neither Iran nor Oman controls or oversees the waterway. It is an international shipping channel that is open to all international navigation. Yes, Iran can threaten, harass and disrupt shipping, but the two countries have no legal basis to make any kind of ‘safe shipping’ deal.<\/p>\n

Also, as I noted in an\u00a0interview<\/a>\u00a0with Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen, other Gulf nations are very unlikely to agree to or adhere to any ‘deal’ that would require them to pay a fee or toll for safe passage. I’ve personally spoken with representatives of some of these nations and can assure you that they will be frustrated with any pay-to-ship type situation.<\/p>\n

The other headline is that Pakistan\u00a0says<\/a>\u00a0it made “significant progress” in peace talks with Iran. Pakistan has been an important back-channel player in reaching Iran, and the positive tone of its comments eased oil markets a bit.<\/p>\n

This news all plays around the backdrop of the U.S. going\u00a0harder\u00a0against Iran economically.<\/p>\n

Labeled “Operation Economic Outcast,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is waging an economic sortie against Iran.<\/p>\n

The idea is to pressure Iran’s hardline leadership enough that they are forced to come back to the negotiating table and\/or cease aggression around the Strait of Hormuz. Well, as of this writing, we are still waiting on the exact details of what sanctions and economic pressure may be levied; there is one lesser-discussed aspect of the plan that is noteworthy.<\/p>\n

In addition to the new Iran measures, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also rather quietly ended its designation for Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism. This little-noticed move may have significant implications for some Western energy firms. A few weeks ago, the US led an announcement that some names you know will invest more than $60 billion dollars into\u2026 Iraq. Yes, Iraq. The country we went to war with less than two decades ago. Some of those billions would go toward construction – or reconstruction – of pipelines that run from northern Iraq and then on to Syria and Turkey, where the oil would then be loaded onto ships and the haven of the Mediterranean. By removing Syria’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, American companies will have a much easier time investing in the country. The ‘terror’ label adds a high hurdle for investment.<\/p>\n

This change matters to\u00a0Chevron (CVX)<\/a>,\u00a0ConocoPhillips (COP)<\/a>, and\u00a0BP (BP)<\/a>.\u00a0 Although the move doesn’t guarantee that the investment plans will proceed, removing the terror designation is an important step forward for investment. Watch this space, and watch Iraq.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading,<\/p>\n

Brian<\/p>\n

Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwardsWALL STREET’S TAKE<\/p>\n

It’s the quiet season on Wall Street as analysts and investors take much-needed breaks. Expect more stock calls to kick back in after the U.S. returns from the\u00a0Labor Day<\/a>\u00a0holiday. We’ve got a couple of individual stocks below to talk about, but let’s first hit some macro energy comments from Wall Street.<\/p>\n

The team at Citigroup is on the tape talking about lower longer-term oil prices. Citi notes that its ‘base case’ remains an Iran peace deal that could send Brent crude back into the $60 range next year. But the firm also highlights a ‘bull case’ where the Strait of Hormuz remains unsteady past the November 3rd elections in America and Brent pops back into the $110 range.<\/p>\n

One stock ‘call’ comes from what I’ve called the “capitol of capital:” Washington, D.C. The portfolio of former Congressional Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi revealed a big new stake in\u00a0Bloom Energy (BE)<\/a>, bought in two stages in late July. Filings show that Pelosi bought 10,000 shares on July 24th and then another 5,000 shares on July 28th. The Congresswoman also bought two hundred call options during that window. While we don’t know the exact trade price, her purchase July 24th would’ve been anywhere between $183 and $214, leaving a potential paper loss depending on where she bought it. The July 28th Bloom buy was more timely, with the stock having an intraday high of $176.85. Normally\u00a0Power Insider\u00a0tries to avoid politics as much as it can, but Pelosi’s accounts are widely followed, so a buy like this is notable.<\/p>\n

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon\"hide<\/p>\n

Bloom Energy, YTD<\/p>\n

One small-cap \u00a0‘new energy’ stock to watch is\u00a0Factorial Energy (FAC)<\/a>. \u00a0 Oppenheimer is bullish on the beaten-up battery company. The firm says it sees Factorial as a “leading play in the commercialization of solid-state battery technology” and a company with advantages in the fast-growing space.\u00a0 Oppenheimer highlights how the company is gaining traction with the auto industry, noting that Mercedes-Benz recently drove a modified EV over 1,200 kilometers – nearly 750 miles – on one of Factorial’s battery cells. OpCo has an $8 target. But potential buyers take note: FAC is a new stock, having IPO’d via a SPAC in early June, and has fallen consistently since the first few days after its IPO. It hit $25 on June 9th and has tanked to its current price just above $5.<\/p>\n

RBI \u2192 Solid-state batteries are seen by some as the breakthrough tech needed to make electric cars more mainstream because of their faster charge and longer range. Toyota has been aggressively working on solid-state battery solutions. A great\u00a0article<\/a>\u00a0by Scientific American just called it a ‘make or break time’ for the tech and talked about the company.<\/p>\n

Speaking of ‘new’ tech, one final stock call of note: UBS upgrading\u00a0SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG)<\/a>\u00a0to a ‘buy’ and raising the price target. UBS says the company is a winner from a recent U.S. government\u00a0ban<\/a>\u00a0on certain parts imported from overseas because that ban will “create a supply-constrained U.S. market driving both share gains and potential pricing power” for the company. UBS is raising its earnings estimates and says the stock’s multiple is attractive. The target bumps up to $42 from $36.<\/p>\n

TAKE A LOOK<\/p>\n

Ever wonder why sometimes the data around oil and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can seem so wildly different? Shipping and tanker expert David Wech of Vortexa explains why and some tips to help navigate it.<\/p>\n

\"Ship<\/p>\n

Here we also lay out some strategies Gulf nations are employing to get oil out of the region without fully risking running the Strait.<\/p>\n

\"HowINSIDE LINE<\/p>\n

This week’s Inside Line is with Atlantic Council’s Jonathan Panikoff. He is a long-time intelligence officer with expertise in the Middle East. He also speaks to Wall Street firms about the region.<\/p>\n

Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwardsZoom In IconArrows pointing outwardsTHE GRIDChoose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"POWER POINT What I’m hearing from energy insiders The Great Hormuz Debate. Exactly how many ships – and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":267239,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[28],"tags":[32878,65521,65098,27020,130,157,135,126,131,154,16112,703,73262,159,1770,102,6059,34,6060,207,73263,101,51],"class_list":["post-267238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-strait-of-hormuz","tag-lco26v","tag-lco27f","tag-ng26u","tag-bloom-energy-corp","tag-bp-plc","tag-breaking-news-markets","tag-business-news","tag-chevron-corp","tag-conocophillips","tag-energy","tag-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund","tag-environment","tag-factorial-energy-inc","tag-foreign-policy","tag-government-and-politics","tag-hormuz","tag-invesco-solar-etf","tag-iran","tag-ishares-global-clean-energy-etf","tag-markets","tag-solaredge-technologies-inc","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-united-states"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/117168758463592401","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=267238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267238\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=267238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}