Friday marks six months since the U.S. launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.<\/p>\n
Why it matters: The war is changing global energy markets and domestic politics in all kinds of big and sometimes surprising ways.<\/p>\n
Here are just six of them…<\/p>\n
\u2600\ufe0f Momentum for EVs and renewables. There’s fresh evidence that the crisis is boosting those technologies in many nations, even as coal rises in some areas too.<\/p>\n
Why it matters: High oil and gas prices and supply losses are the big reason now, but the trend might have legs as countries look to diversify their future fuel mixes.<\/p>\n
The big picture: Think surging EV sales in Brazil and Australia, for instance, and Thailand, a big LNG buyer, boosting<\/a> its long-term renewables and nuclear goals.<\/p>\n State of play: China’s exports of clean energy equipment have jumped, and it’s increasingly clear that the war is the reason, per the research firm BloombergNEF’s new report Friday morning.<\/a><\/p>\n The intrigue: “At first, this reflected a change to a key domestic export subsidy, but [China] has now logged five straight months of record exports,” it states.<\/p>\n Data: BloombergNEF<\/a> and Sinoimex; Chart: Ben Geman\/Axios<\/p>\n Catch up quick: The war began as China had lots of excess manufacturing capacity and slowing domestic growth in these sectors, said Ethan Zindler, a top analyst with BloombergNEF.<\/p>\n What they’re saying: “Where energy consumers have faced higher costs and have unfettered access to lowest cost Chinese goods, they’re buying them,” he said in an interview.<\/p>\n “There’s been a lot of focus around what [the war] meant for limiting energy supplies on the fossil side, but it actually coincided with a moment of absolutely maximum overcapacity on the clean energy side.”<\/p>\n Case in point: Africa’s imports of Chinese solar equipment were 37% higher in the first half of 2026 than the same period in 2025, the firm’s report finds.<\/p>\n \ud83d\ude9b The war has evolved into a diesel crunch. Squeezed or damaged global refining capacity<\/a> and the lack of substitute fuels have made diesel price increases especially large. That ripples through the cost of moving goods, plowing fields<\/a> and much more.<\/p>\n \ud83d\uddf3\ufe0f It’s a big midterm elections story. Democrats have been hitting Republicans over higher gasoline and diesel prices, so the elections will test the political punch of energy costs.<\/p>\n Friction point: In Ohio’s tight Senate race, for instance, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has a new ad this month<\/a> that ties his opponent, Sen. Jon Husted (R), to farmers hit with higher diesel costs due to the war.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f Oil markets are surprisingly flexible. This is one factor that could slow the transition tailwinds. Prices never approached the $200 per barrel or even $150 that some analysts predicted when the Strait of Hormuz was choked off.<\/p>\n Catch up quick: There’s no single reason why the crisis wasn’t even worse. But China \u2014 the world’s largest oil importer \u2014 surprised market-watchers with its massive and somewhat mysterious decline in oil purchases.<\/p>\n \ud83d\uddfa\ufe0f There will be a new oil map. The throttling of the strait is bringing new or sped-up investment in pipelines that bypass the waterway, which handled a fifth of the global oil trade until the war.<\/p>\n Why it matters: The strait will remain massively important for many years, but its centrality to the market will wane over time.<\/p>\n Case in point: The United Arab Emirates is accelerating construction of a major oil pipeline that will double its export capacity through the port of Fujairah, which avoids Hormuz.<\/p>\n What we’re watching: As the International Energy Agency and others note, more countries are also creating or expanding their strategic oil stockpiles, such as Indonesia and Vietnam.<\/p>\n \ud83e\udeb0 Drones have created a new world. Their use against energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia highlights a major \u2014 and evolving \u2014 risk to energy security<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sign up here<\/a> for Axios’ Future of Energy newsletter.<\/p>\n