{"id":27491,"date":"2026-03-20T00:50:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T00:50:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/27491\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T00:50:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T00:50:30","slug":"ecb-warns-of-inflation-as-iran-war-rages-on-politico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/27491\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB warns of inflation as Iran war rages on \u2013 POLITICO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Growth hit<\/p>\n<p>The Bank also cut its growth forecasts on Thursday due to the war, and now sees the economy growing only 0.9 percent this year and 1.3 percent next year. That\u2019s down from 1.2 percent and1.4 percent at its December forecast round.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, the ECB\u2019s assumptions are in danger of being rapidly overtaken by events \u2014 and may, indeed, be no longer realistic. The new forecasts are based on market conditions from March 11, when oil prices were still only around $90 a barrel and financial markets had priced in one\u00a0ECB\u00a0rate hike. On Thursday, benchmark Brent rose to above $115 a barrel after a series of attacks on key export facilities around the Persian Gulf deepened fears of a prolonged shortage of both oil and natural gas.<\/p>\n<p>Qatarenergy, whose giant Ras Laffan export hub for natural gas was hit by Iranian drones on Wednesday, said that the damage to the facility could take up to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/iran-attack-damage-wipes-out-17-qatars-lng-capacity-three-five-years-qatarenergy-2026-03-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">five years<\/a>\u00a0to repair, and that it may have to suspend deliveries to Italy and Belgium as a result.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Investors have bet that the Bank will have to raise the key deposit rate twice this year, to 2.5 percent. Policymakers around the globe have cautioned against rushing to such conclusions, but an adverse scenario modeled by Bank staff suggested strongly that a tighter policy would be needed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Assuming that acute energy supply disruptions persist until the end of this year, and that oil and gas prices hit almost $150 a barrel and \u20ac110 per MWh respectively in the second quarter, inflation would top 4 percent this year and touch almost 5 percent in 2027, before easing to 2.8 percent in 2028.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, growth would slow to 0.4 percent this year and 0.9 percent in 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Growth hit The Bank also cut its growth forecasts on Thursday due to the war, and now sees&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":27492,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11624,12853,12854,12855,1004,3509,34,12856,213,12857,56,226],"class_list":{"0":"post-27491","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran","8":"tag-christine-lagarde","9":"tag-europes-economic-recovery","10":"tag-eurozone","11":"tag-growth","12":"tag-inflation","13":"tag-interest-rates","14":"tag-iran","15":"tag-monetary-policy","16":"tag-oil","17":"tag-quantitative-easing","18":"tag-ukraine","19":"tag-war-in-iran"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116258762027966421","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27491\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}