<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump\u2019s<\/a> supposed weekslong war on Iran<\/a> has now trudged into months, but while it\u2019s hard to say whether he\u2019s winning his war over the country\u2019s suicidal dictatorship, it\u2019s becoming increasingly clear that, against all odds and a concerted, anti-American psy-op, the White House is winning its war for oil independence.<\/p>\n In a narrative-defying note to investors, analysts at Goldman Sachs last week reported that oil <\/a>flows through the Persian Gulf have risen to two-thirds of their pre-war levels, with 8 million to 10 million barrels per day of oil specifically transiting the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> and another 7 to 8 million bpd circumventing the strait through U.S. Navy<\/a> escorts, the Saudi East-West pipeline, and the UAE\u2019s Fujairah pipeline. All in all, total oil and gas transit is up to 15 to 16 million bpd versus the March nadir of just 5 to 6 million bpd.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, in Venezuela<\/a>, the Trump administration\u2019s 100-year deal with Delcy Rodriguez\u2019s puppet regime ostensibly grants the U.S. 55% rights of 17 of the nation\u2019s oil fields, equivalent to one-fifth of Venezuela\u2019s proven oil reserves. But ignore our government\u2019s hypothetical prospect of a century-long deal with a communist; our private oil and gas operators have ensured that the U.S. is currently receiving well over a half-million bpd of crude\u2013half of Venezuela\u2019s entire current output \u2014\u00a0right now. This amounts to about 4% of our domestic output, and it\u2019s a figure that\u2019s slated only to increase as Chevron has announced a new $7 billion investment program in Venezuela with the goal of doubling its production from roughly 300,000 bpd in the country to 600,000 and expanding its physical acreage of control.<\/p>\n If you have been a passive observer of the anti-American global media<\/a> or, worse, the blindly anti-Trump domestic media for the past half year, you would think that America\u2019s war on Iran has long been lost. You would think that the regime fully controls the Persian Gulf and that the U.S. is retreating into autarky and decline.<\/p>\n But have oil markets behaved like the ayatollah fully controls one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil and gas supply?<\/p>\n Clearly not, as the data have been telling us a vastly different story.<\/p>\n After peaking at $120 in April from pre-war levels of around $70, global oil futures haven\u2019t broached over $100 for more than a moment since the start of the summer. And global oil futures have come completely uncoupled from American oil futures, which have consistently traded at a discount between $5 and $10 for months now. The \u201cAmerica Last\u201d contingent will try to attribute the relative moderation of oil prices to China\u2019s decision to rely on reserves rather than imports, yet this isn\u2019t a consequence of the benevolence of Xi Jinping but rather the abysmal fundamentals of the Chinese economy and the authoritarian country\u2019s reliance on buying sanctioned oil at a discount for its teapot refineries.<\/p>\n