{"id":28221,"date":"2026-03-20T12:59:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T12:59:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/28221\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T12:59:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T12:59:15","slug":"the-iran-war-could-weaken-ukraines-hand-as-russia-plans-new-offensives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/28221\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iran war could weaken Ukraine’s hand as Russia plans new offensives"},"content":{"rendered":"

With U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks<\/a> on hold due to the war in the Middle East<\/a>, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to try to expand his military gains via new offensives against his neighbor that could put even more pressure on Kyiv.<\/p>\n

Windfall revenues from surging global oil prices<\/a> are filling Moscow\u2019s war coffers and U.S. air defense assets are being drained quickly by Iranian attacks across the Gulf, raising concerns that little will be left available for Ukraine in the fifth year of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s European allies have promised to maintain their steadfast support, but continuous bickering over a major 90 billion-euro ($106 billion) European Union loan<\/a> to cover Kyiv\u2019s military and economic needs for two years has reflected the mounting challenges.<\/p>\n

The refusal by NATO allies<\/a> to commit naval assets to help restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drawn an angry rebuke from President Donald Trump, highlighting another emerging fault line that is fraught with potential repercussions for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/a> has sought to hold Washington\u2019s attention by offering its expertise in defending against Iranian Shahed drones, sending over 200 military experts to the Gulf. Trump, however, has shrugged off Zelenskyy\u2019s offer of help, saying the U.S. doesn\u2019t need Kyiv\u2019s assistance.<\/p>\n

As new signs of a rift emerge in Western alliances, Putin and his generals are pondering plans for the spring and summer campaign across more than the 1,200-kilometer (about 750-mile) front line.<\/p>\n

A possible new push from Russia<\/p>\n

The Russian military appears to be readying for a renewed push to claim the part of the eastern Donetsk region that remains under Ukraine\u2019s control, as well as possible offensives in several other sectors.<\/p>\n

Analysts have observed that Moscow has been building up reserves and its operations are expected to gain tempo as the spring warmth dries the terrain.<\/p>\n

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War has noted that Russian troops have stepped up artillery barrage and drone strikes, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has sought to derail the Kremlin\u2019s plans by launching counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, where Russian forces have sought to carve out bridgeheads with an aim to advance toward the regional capitals, which are key industrial hubs.<\/p>\n

The ISW said in a recent battlefield assessment that Ukraine\u2019s successful retaliation in the Dnipropetrovsk region will likely continue to force Russia to \u201cchoose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere\u201d on the front, possibly spoiling the anticipated Russian offensive.<\/p>\n

It also noted that Ukrainian forces have stepped up their midrange strikes against Russian logistics, military equipment and manpower to try to derail the expected offensive<\/p>\n

Russian war bloggers warn that Moscow would need to bolster its forces drastically to conduct any major offensive, something that raises challenges for the Kremlin.<\/p>\n

After the widely unpopular \u201cpartial mobilization\u201d of 300,000 reservists early in the war that prompted hundred of thousands to flee the country to avoid being drafted, the Russian military has changed tactics, relying on volunteers and recruiting foreign fighters<\/a> attracted by reasonably high wages and other benefits.<\/p>\n

Putin said Russia has about 700,000 troops fighting in Ukraine, about the same number that Ukraine reportedly has.<\/p>\n

From heavy armor to drones and missiles<\/p>\n

After quick maneuvers by large numbers of tanks and mechanized infantry early in Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion, the fighting has morphed into a war of attrition in which small groups of soldiers fight grinding, house-to-house battles in the ruined towns and villages of eastern Ukraine. The ubiquitous drones have restricted the concentration of troops for any big moves.<\/p>\n

Russia also has relied on long-range missiles and drones to pummel Ukraine\u2019s energy facilities and other vital infrastructure.<\/p>\n

For the past year, Russia has been able to infiltrate and undermine Ukrainian defensive positions due to the \u201cgrowing lethality\u201d of Moscow\u2019s attacks and Kyiv\u2019s dwindling troop strength, said analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute.<\/p>\n

\u201cRussia is likely able to maintain its current rate of recruitment, despite the punishing rate of casualties\u201d inflicted by Ukraine, he added.<\/p>\n

As part of preparing for new offensives, Russia increasingly has sought to enlist students into its newly formed Drone Forces, offering relatively high pay and deployment at a safe distance from the front.<\/p>\n

Tulsi Gabbard<\/a>, the U.S. director of national intelligence, told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday that \u201cRussia has maintained the upper hand in the war against Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

She said the U.S.-led talks between Ukraine and Russia \u201care ongoing. Until such an agreement is met, Moscow is likely to continue fighting a slow war of attrition until they view their objectives have been achieved.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both sides have entrenched positions<\/p>\n

Several rounds of negotiations have produced no visible breakthrough as the parties remain sharpy divided on key issues.<\/p>\n

Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the four regions that Russia has illegally annexed but never fully captured, renounce its bid to join NATO, sharply cut its army and drop restrictions against Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church -\u2013 demands Zelenskyy has rejected.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyy has called for a ceasefire, U.S.-backed security guarantees to prevent Moscow invading again and has rejected claims over Ukrainian territory. <\/p>\n

Kyiv\u2019s European allies accuse Moscow of dragging out the talks in hopes of making more gains and insisted that Europe must be present at the negotiations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected their participation, saying \u201cwe don\u2019t consider it necessary or expedient.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moscow says it won\u2019t allow any European troops to monitor a prospective ceasefire and will view them as legitimate targets.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyy said he sent a team of negotiators for talks in the U.S. on Saturday, but Peskov said Russia won\u2019t join them, adding that the time and venue for another round of trilateral negotiations haven\u2019t been set yet.<\/p>\n

Sam Greene, a professor at King\u2019s College London, said in a commentary that Moscow\u2019s strategy was obvious -\u2013 \u201cengaging with Washington just enough to prevent Ukraine from getting what it needed to shift the balance on the ground, and just enough to keep the Europeans at bay, but not enough to make real progress.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump takes aim at Zelenskyy<\/p>\n

The U.S. has granted Moscow a temporary waiver<\/a> from oil sanctions, allowing sales of Russian crude already at sea \u2014 to the dismay of Kyiv and the Europeans.<\/p>\n

In addition, Trump has cast Zelenskyy as an obstacle to peace. \u201cHe has to get on the ball, and he has to get a deal done,\u201d Trump said of the Ukrainian leader earlier this month.<\/p>\n

He said in an interview with NBC News that while Putin was ready for a deal, \u201cit\u2019s much harder to reach a deal with Zelenskyy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump also rebuffed Zelenskyy\u2019s proposal to help protect the U.S. forces and their allies in the Gulf from Iranian drones. \u201cNo, we don\u2019t need their help on drone defense,\u201d Trump told Fox News Radio.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyy, who has taken a more practical public stance with Trump after their contentious White House meeting in February 2025, has expressed a growing concern that the Iran war could hurt Ukraine.<\/p>\n

He told the BBC this week that he had a \u201cvery bad feeling\u201d about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the war in Ukraine, noting that peace negotiations are being \u201cconstantly postponed\u201d while Russia was profiting from high oil prices and Ukraine could face a deficit of U.S.-made Patriot missiles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks on hold due to the war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28222,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2488,38,197,34,196,13224,13222,49,2155,2157,53,13223,11492,56,2204,1976,3869,200,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-28221","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran","8":"tag-dmitry-peskov","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-general-news","11":"tag-iran","12":"tag-iran-war","13":"tag-jack-watling","14":"tag-kyiv","15":"tag-middle-east","16":"tag-moscow","17":"tag-russia-government","18":"tag-russia-ukraine-war","19":"tag-sam-greene","20":"tag-tulsi-gabbard","21":"tag-ukraine","22":"tag-ukraine-government","23":"tag-vladimir-putin","24":"tag-volodymyr-zelenskyy","25":"tag-war-and-unrest","26":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116261628490373834","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}