WASHINGTON \u2014 More than six months into the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains locked in what analysts describe as a deadly stalemate, with the U.S. military continuing to escort oil tankers through the vital waterway as Iranian attacks kill sailors and deter shipping companies from using the route.<\/p>\n
For months, the U.S. military has worked to protect tankers carrying Persian Gulf oil through the strait from Iranian attacks. But last week, a Saudi vessel attempting to pass through the waterway was struck off the coast of Oman, killing two crew members, according to The New York Times. Two other sailors died in separate attacks in August, making it the deadliest month for merchant seamen in the strait since March. At least 23 ships were struck in the waterway in July and August combined.<\/p>\n
On Saturday, the United States struck three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for what American officials described as unprovoked attempts by Iran to attack two U.S. warships.<\/p>\n
Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on conflict in the strait, said the current standoff reflects a rough balance of power between the two sides, with neither able to fully impose its will on the waterway.<\/p>\n
“The strait is neither fully closed nor fully opened,” Gholz said. “Iran can’t close it completely, and the U.S. can’t open it completely.”<\/p>\n
The U.S. tanker protection effort, which includes intercepting Iranian drones and missiles before they reach commercial vessels, has helped move millions of barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf each day, providing some relief to global oil markets. Despite that protection, however, continued Iranian attacks have deterred many shipping operators from sending vessels through the strait at all. According to a New York Times analysis of public attack records, Iran struck 12 ships in August, up slightly from 11 in July. The figures indicate that Iran has maintained its pace of attacks even as U.S. forces have worked to intercept incoming threats. Overall oil volumes passing through the waterway remain significantly below prewar levels, according to analysts.<\/p>\n
The current crisis dates back to Feb. 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran. Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by declaring the strait closed to shipping linked to the U.S., Israel or their allies, then began attacking merchant vessels and laying naval mines throughout the waterway. According to tracking compiled on the broader crisis, the conflict has killed at least 20 seafarers and one port worker, while 35 others have been injured and one person remains missing.<\/p>\n
The United States has moved through several distinct phases of military and naval response since the war began. From April 13 to May 29, American forces maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a measure that was briefly lifted before being reinstated on July 14 following renewed attacks on commercial shipping. On Aug. 25, U.S. officials confirmed President Trump’s claim that the Navy had cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme. They said underwater drones had identified more than 100 suspected mines in recent months, which private contractors subsequently dealt with. Trump has said the U.S. will continue destroying any Iranian vessels found laying additional mines in the strait.<\/p>\n
Earlier in the conflict, in March, the U.S. military said it had destroyed 16 Iranian boats believed to be involved in laying naval mines in the strait. The move came amid a broader escalation in which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps formally declared that any vessel belonging to the United States, Israel or an allied nation passing through the strait would be considered a “legitimate target.” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described some of the military operations during that period as among the most intense rounds of strikes since the war began, targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure and drone production facilities.<\/p>\n
The economic toll of the prolonged disruption has been significant. The strait normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas shipments. Traffic came close to a standstill in the opening weeks of the conflict, sending global oil prices to levels not seen since 2022. At one point in March, Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel, with the International Energy Agency describing the disruption at the time as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market.<\/p>\n
President Trump has repeatedly called on other countries with a stake in Gulf shipping to contribute naval assets to help secure the strait. In a Truth Social post issued in March, Trump urged China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom to send ships to help secure the waterway, while saying the U.S. would continue bombing Iran’s coastline and targeting Iranian vessels directly. That same month, Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin formally escorting tankers through the strait. The commitment has continued in various forms, even as attacks on shipping have persisted.<\/p>\n
Some analysts have suggested that fully restoring normal commercial traffic through the strait may ultimately require an even more dramatic military escalation, potentially including a ground operation targeting the stretch of the Iranian coastline directly adjacent to the waterway. No such operation, however, has been publicly confirmed or announced by U.S. officials.<\/p>\n
With the conflict now well into its seventh month and continuing to generate a steady stream of attacks on commercial shipping despite sustained American naval protection efforts, the Strait of Hormuz appears likely to remain in the unresolved, partially functional state described by Gholz and other analysts. Neither Iran’s efforts to close the waterway nor the United States’ attempts to fully secure it have proved decisive. For shipping companies and the sailors still willing to crew tankers attempting the crossing, the stalemate has translated directly into continued danger, even though the broader flow of Persian Gulf oil, while diminished, has not been completely severed.<\/p>\n