Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani announced on September 6 that Iran will establish new maritime exclusion zones in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, extending from U.S. Navy blockade lines to loading ports. Concurrently, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Baghaei confirmed that an agreement between Iran and Oman on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has entered its final stage, with plans to establish a temporary safe corridor and submit it to the International Maritime Organization for registration. The combined developments have once again tightened nerves across global energy markets, with Brent crude briefly touching $97.93 per barrel, its highest level since July 23.<\/p>\n
In an interview with Iranian state television, Shamkhani made clear that the new exclusion zones represent a “policy shift” on Iran’s part regarding the Strait of Hormuz. He revealed that maps for the new international shipping corridor have been agreed upon within Iranian and Omani waters and “should be signed within the coming days.” Vessels acting without coordination with Iran will be placed on a sanctions list and face consequences including insurance invalidation and subsequent transit restrictions.<\/p>\n
He also stressed: “Only when we see the United States stop undermining, threatening, and attacking Iran will we commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.” This statement directly links waterway security to the overall trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations, signaling Iran’s intent to use strait control as a core bargaining chip in its confrontation with Washington.<\/p>\n
Market optimism that the Iran-Oman agreement could help ease shipping bottlenecks initially capped oil price gains, but prices remain elevated overall. Brent crude is currently trading around $97 per barrel, near six-week highs; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is hovering near $93 per barrel. Since the conflict erupted in late February this year, oil futures have accumulated gains exceeding 30%, with refined products such as diesel posting even more pronounced increases.<\/p>\n
Shipping Volumes Plunge as Strait Nears Paralysis<\/p>\n
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest point since the conflict began. Kpler’s latest shipping data shows that over the past 10 days, an average of only 10 commercial vessels per day transited the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest level since May. On September 6, only 5 vessels passed through, and on September 5, just 2.<\/p>\n
Macquarie Group analysts estimate that approximately 7 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products currently transit the Strait of Hormuz, compared with roughly 20 million barrels per day before the war. Analysts note that only a small number of shipowners are currently willing to traverse the strait at acceptable rates, but this has been sufficient to sustain a considerable volume of oil transit.<\/p>\n
Stephen Zunes, an international relations scholar at the University of San Francisco, told Al Jazeera on September 7 that Iran’s plan to establish new exclusion zones may be directly related to the shipping agreement being negotiated with Oman. He argued that the exclusion zones will “make the situation more complicated,” because U.S. forces, already stretched thin, would have to patrol and maintain order across a larger area, while also making shipping companies and their insurers even more reluctant to undertake dangerous transits.<\/p>\n
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf further escalated the threatening rhetoric, warning on social media that if Iranian oil tankers continue to be attacked, American energy companies will become targets. He wrote: “Our oil and gas production chain is vast, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies in these waters and facilities face the same exposure. Strike our assets, and you will be struck in return.”<\/p>\n
Direct Collision Between the Iran-Oman Agreement and U.S. Stance<\/p>\n
Negotiations between Iran and Oman on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have been underway for several weeks and have now entered their final stage. Baghaei characterized the arrangement as a “memorandum of understanding,” stating that talks have made “very good progress” and expressing hope that there would be no “third-party interference,” though he did not name any specific country.<\/p>\n
The core of the agreement lies in the fact that both Iran and Oman border the Strait of Hormuz, and the two countries seek to formalize their control over the waterway, potentially eventually charging transit fees to passing vessels. This directly conflicts with the U.S. position\u2014Washington is imposing a blockade on Iranian ports to curb its oil exports while hoping to restore the waterway to pre-war freedom of navigation.<\/p>\n
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an interview with ABC News on September 6 that Washington may ultimately not sign a nuclear deal with Tehran, stating that “an agreement may have to wait until the next Iranian government takes office,” and hinting that the U.S. may continue pursuing actions to destroy Iran’s “nuclear capability.”<\/p>\n
Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth assessed that Wright’s remarks indicate Washington’s expectations for a near-term diplomatic agreement are declining sharply. CNBC noted that Wright’s comments are bad news for a global economy already affected by the conflict, as they suggest America’s two prior commitments\u2014”preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons” and “not turning this into an endless war”\u2014are becoming increasingly difficult to fulfill.<\/p>\n
Former U.S. State Department official Vali Nasr told The Wall Street Journal: “Both sides’ predictions have failed, and both are trapped with no exit.” The conflict, now in its seventh month, is placing mounting political pressure on the Trump administration\u2014U.S. retail diesel prices have hit record highs, and Republican control of Congress in the November midterm elections is at risk.<\/p>\n
Uncertainty Facing the Shipping Industry<\/p>\n
Iran’s plan to extend its control beyond the strait itself has made the outlook for the global shipping industry even more uncertain. South Korean shipping industry sources note that unlike the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz has no alternative route\u2014if passage becomes impossible, vessels simply cannot enter the Persian Gulf. The issue is no longer about freight rates, but the fundamental question of “whether we can go at all.”<\/p>\n
In the short term, rising freight rates and tight capacity provide some support for shipping company earnings, but rising insurance costs, route adjustment expenses, and unpredictable recovery timelines are becoming the biggest burdens for shipping enterprises. Some shipping companies have already redeployed vessels originally assigned to Middle East routes to the Americas, India, and Europe to offset revenue losses.<\/p>\n
This contest over control of the Strait of Hormuz has transcended mere shipping safety concerns, evolving into a comprehensive struggle between the U.S. and Iran over energy corridors, nuclear negotiations, and regional influence. As the Iran-Oman agreement nears signing and Iran’s unilateral exclusion zone plans gradually take shape, uncertainty facing the global energy supply chain continues to accumulate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani announced on September 6 that Iran will establish new maritime…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":282820,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[26],"tags":[12846,1872,5826,40939,6457,76890,181,39,70498,101,392,1527],"class_list":["post-282819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-persian-gulf","tag-baghaei","tag-brent-crude","tag-chris-wright","tag-irans-supreme-national-security-council","tag-kpler","tag-macquarie-group","tag-oman","tag-persian-gulf","tag-rezaei","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-trump","tag-u-s-navy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/117232863987430742","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=282819"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282819\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/282820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=282819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=282819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=282819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}