{"id":30134,"date":"2026-03-21T21:22:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T21:22:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/30134\/"},"modified":"2026-03-21T21:22:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T21:22:16","slug":"gulf-states-and-energy-markets-become-soft-belly-of-us-israel-war-with-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/30134\/","title":{"rendered":"Gulf states and energy markets become &#8216;soft belly&#8217; of US-Israel war with Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">When Israel struck Iran&#8217;s biggest gas field in the Persian Gulf, its neighbour Qatar had a lot to lose.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Iran and Qatar jointly control the basin, each operating a share of the largest gas reserve in the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Tehran retaliated, as promised, and Qatar was right in the firing line.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Its behemoth Ras Laffan gas plant \u2014 the world&#8217;s biggest LNG facility, accounting for about one-fifth of the globe&#8217;s supply \u2014 was hit, wiping out 17 per cent of its export capacity.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Oil and gas prices soared by roughly 10 per cent, sending shockwaves through the global economy and hitting consumers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\"><a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-03-22\/iran-israel-war-live-updates-sunday-march-22-2026\/106482402\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/106482402\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Iran war live updates:<\/a> For all the latest news on the war in the Middle East, read our blog.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Iran also sprayed missiles and drones at other targets across the region, hitting oil refineries in Kuwait and Israel.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">It&#8217;s not just the damage caused to the globally significant gas assets that matters \u2014 it&#8217;s the threat and fear of more attacks, which mark the start of a dangerous new chapter in the war.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;This is a major escalation,&#8221; said Jon B Alterman, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;By striking the energy infrastructure, I think the Israelis invited the Iranians to begin to attack the Arab states&#8217; energy infrastructure. The costs of that to everybody start getting very, very high.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A &#8216;game of chicken&#8217; that Trump may have lost<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">As global energy markets reeled, the debate over who knew what, and when, dominated the discourse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to distance himself, lambasting Israel for &#8220;lashing out in anger&#8221; and denying any knowledge of the attack.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL&#8221; he said, unless Iran decides to again attack a &#8220;very innocent&#8221; Qatar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Israeli officials disputed the claim that the US was in the dark over the attack, telling media that Washington was in fact informed before it took place.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">One analyst, Yoel Guzansky from the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv university, went as far as to claim the US was actively involved.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;I know for a fact that it was co-ordinated with the Americans,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;Maybe it was about trying to test the waters, see what the Iranian response is, pressure them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;This is a game of chicken and he [Donald Trump] lost.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"trump speaks to qatar's emir, a man in white clothing\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/ded840406a331e5a1fad170d1c89bc97.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Donald Trump talks with Qatar&#8217;s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani during a stop in Doha in May 2025. (Reuters: Brian Snyder)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Both leaders \u2014 Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu \u2014 then later awkwardly addressed the conjecture as they spoke to the press.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Asked about the Israeli strike on Thursday, local time, Trump said, &#8220;I told him, &#8216;Don&#8217;t do that!'&#8221; and he suggested that Netanyahu &#8220;won&#8217;t do that&#8221; again in future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Meanwhile, in his first press conference since the war broke out, Netanyahu avoided the question about whether Trump knew, but said Israel &#8220;acted alone&#8221;. He said he had promised the US president that Israel wouldn&#8217;t bomb the gas field again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Analysts say several different scenarios could have played out behind the scenes.<\/p>\n<p>Expert analysis on the Middle East:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;You could imagine it was co-ordinated at a level below the president, and he didn&#8217;t know about it; you can imagine the president forgot that somebody had raised it; or you can imagine the president isn&#8217;t speaking completely truthfully,&#8221; Mr Alterman said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;I think all of those things are possible. None of them are good.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">But through the swirl of PR messaging coming from both administrations, the US and Israel appear increasingly divided over how this war should be waged, and what their objectives are.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">It also appears that by sparking Iran&#8217;s escalating strikes on Qatar, Israel may have crossed somewhat of a red line for Trump.<\/p>\n<p>A complicated history of US-Qatari diplomacy<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">While their relationship remains somewhat complicated, Trump has put Gulf diplomacy front and centre of his foreign policy agenda, and Qatar has been put at the forefront.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">In 2024, Trump hosted Qatar&#8217;s Emir at his Mar-a-Lago estate. And in his current term, Qatar helped the president secure one of his biggest foreign policy achievements \u2014 the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">While it\u2019s home to America&#8217;s largest military base in the Middle East, Qatar has been closer to Iran than America would have liked throughout much of Trump&#8217;s rule.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">For years, the tiny but uber-rich Gulf emirate has walked a tightrope, maintaining diplomatic relations with Iran, while building closer security and economic ties with the US.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Donald Trump sits next to Qatar's emir.\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/897271d2af4650c5f4314946e64e60d9.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">In 2017, Donald Trump held a bilateral meeting with\u00a0Qatar&#8217;s\u00a0Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AP: Evan Vucci, file)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">During a diplomatic crisis between 2017 and 2021, when Gulf and Arab nations imposed a blockade on Qatar after alleging it was supporting terrorism and getting too close to Iran, Trump had sided with the anti-Doha alliance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">When the crisis was resolved, <a class=\"Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/sada\/2021\/02\/iranian-qatari-relations-after-al-ula\" data-component=\"Link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">some analysts said the blockade ultimately &#8220;strengthened Iranian-Qatari relations for the foreseeable future&#8221;<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">In 2020, Qatar refused to sign the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which normalised ties between Israel and several of Qatar\u2019s Gulf and Arab neighbours. Since then it has maintained its unique position, <a class=\"Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/opinion\/qatar-is-the-mideasts-honest-broker-hamas-israel-america-middle-east-conflict-peace-19e3cc0f\" data-component=\"Link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">describing itself as an &#8220;honest broker&#8221; between adversaries<\/a>, acting as a key mediator in the Gaza conflict, while also hosting Hamas\u2019s political offices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Throughout Trump&#8217;s two terms in office, Qatar has tried to draw closer ties with the US president, even after he lost the 2020 election.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A Qatri Emir shakes hands with the US president.\" class=\"Image_image__5tFYM ContentImage_image__DQ_cq\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/84e769c4c631987b4396aeaec7bbd448.jpeg\" loading=\"lazy\" data-component=\"Image\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"Typography_base__sj2RP FigureCaption_text__zDxQ5 Typography_sizeMobile12__w_FPC Typography_lineHeightMobile20___U7Vr Typography_regular__WeIG6 Typography_colourInherit__dfnUx\" data-component=\"Typography\">Donald Trump shakes hands with Qatar&#8217;s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani during a meeting onboard Air Force One in 2026. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Last year Trump announced that the US had secured economic deals worth $345 billion with Qatar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">And then of course, <a class=\"Link_link__kR0xA Link_link__5eL5m ScreenReaderOnly_srLinkHint__OysWz Link_showVisited__C1Fea Link_showFocus__ALyv2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-05-12\/us-discussions-jumbo-jet-gift-trump-from-qatar-family\/105280696\" data-component=\"Link\" data-uri=\"coremedia:\/\/article\/105280696\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">there&#8217;s that $280 million jet Qatar&#8217;s royal family gave him<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">The lavish and somewhat unusual gift, which many see as a bribe that crossed ethical and moral red lines, offers a window into how Qatar runs this friendship.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">It&#8217;s true that American technology has been used to intercept strikes from Iran since the war broke out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">\u201cThey\u2019ve intercepted missiles using American equipment, there\u2019s integrated air defence, there\u2019s any number of things the United States has put in place anticipating this day may come\u201d, Mr Alterman said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">But the American military infrastructure in Qatar is\u00a0the very reason why it&#8217;s being targeted in the first place, shattering the idea of an American security blanket or what&#8217;s left of it.<\/p>\n<p>Attack on Qatar could have given Trump &#8216;cold feet&#8217;: analyst<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">The events of the past week have left the Gulf States, including Qatar, reassessing their ties with the US and questioning if they&#8217;ve mistakenly put all their eggs in one basket.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;There will be some reallocation, some hedging,&#8221; Mr Alterman said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;But the United States is going to remain at the core of these countries&#8217; global orientations, maybe even more than before, not because they like it, not because they&#8217;re totally satisfied, but because there&#8217;s no better option for them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;The Chinese aren&#8217;t getting involved, nobody trusts the Russians, Europe&#8217;s capacity is quite limited to project power and Europe doesn&#8217;t want to get involved.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">The language coming from these oil and gas-rich states, including Qatar, has until now been unabashedly reserved.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">In a joint statement released on Thursday, representatives from 12 countries in the region, including Qatar, Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, denounced what they called Iran&#8217;s &#8220;deliberate attacks&#8221; targeting civilian areas as well as oil facilities, airports, diplomatic buildings and residences.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">The shift in tone is noticeable and suggests the region may now be looking to each other to form strong alliances in an increasingly hostile Gulf.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Qatar has long advocated for diplomacy rather than escalation. Its message throughout has been that Doha had been &#8220;dragged into&#8221; a war it didn&#8217;t start.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">After the strike on Ras Laffan when the heart of its economy was struck, Qatar quickly condemned Iran&#8217;s attack, labelling it &#8220;brazen&#8221; and saying it had violated its sovereignty and threatened its national security.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">In the face of the strikes, Qatar expelled two Iranian military attach\u00e9s in retaliation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">It could have gone much further, by expelling the Iranian ambassador or recalling its own from Tehran. But it didn&#8217;t, which suggests this fuse has only just been lit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">For his part, Trump threatened to &#8220;massively blow up&#8221; Iran&#8217;s entire gas field if it ever struck Qatar again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;I think, maybe in this strike, he [Trump] climbed too high on the tree. I think he got cold feet at the Iranian response and basically by the Qatari response,&#8221; Mr Guzansky said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;My guess, and I saw the reports, [is] that the Qataris called him immediately \u2014 him and his advisors \u2014 and said &#8216;We cannot tolerate this, this is our main source of income.'&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">Mr Guzansky said the energy market and the Gulf states were becoming the &#8220;soft belly&#8221; of the war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph_paragraph___QITb\">&#8220;Iran realised it can inflict a lot of damage and it&#8217;s some sort of leverage pressuring the US and the international community.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Loading&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When Israel struck Iran&#8217;s biggest gas field in the Persian Gulf, its neighbour Qatar had a lot to&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30135,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[41,38,14141,37,215,187,790,39,271,12137,101],"class_list":{"0":"post-30134","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-israel","8":"tag-benjamin-netanyahu","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-gas-fields","11":"tag-israel","12":"tag-israel-iran-war","13":"tag-middle-east-war","14":"tag-oil-fields","15":"tag-persian-gulf","16":"tag-qatar","17":"tag-south-pars","18":"tag-strait-of-hormuz"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116269268555555766","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30134\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}