US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.<\/p>\n
The strait has become the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the nearly seven-month US-Iran conflict, with Iran seeking relief from the US blockade that is choking its economy and Washington seeking free passage for ships on the global oil supply route now blocked by Tehran.<\/p>\n
The talks face a big obstacle as neither side wants to be the first to surrender its leverage, according to comments to Reuters by two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomatic sources, but behind Iran\u2019s stance is a recognition of the economic cost of prolonged confrontation.<\/p>\n
A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. The first would be to end the blockade and reopen Hormuz,\u201d he said on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.<\/p>\n
That would involve US President Donald Trump accepting another temporary fix, after an earlier understanding collapsed in July. So a central challenge facing the negotiators is not just to sketch out a deal but also to ensure any concessions are durable enough for both sides to trust, the sources said. Trump has said he thinks the US and \u200cIran could reach a \u200cdeal after midterm elections to Congress on November 3. A senior European official said the Iranians \u201chave a very long list of demands.\u201d<\/p>\n
A White House official said \u200cthat while \u201cIran is desperate for a deal, President Trump holds all the cards and will make whatever decision is best for the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump, he said, remained \u201copen to talking with Iran under the right circumstances\u201d but had no need to negotiate, and the US was in a \u201cvery strong position\u201d with control of the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian economy that was \u201ccollapsing.\u201d The official said \u201ccrushing sanctions\u201d and \u201cone of the most successful blockades in history\u201d have crippled Iran\u2019s economy and left Iran completely broke. Trump was content to let the \u201cinevitable Iranian collapse\u201d play out rather than be \u201cplayed\u201d by Tehran, the official said.<\/p>\n
Former US negotiator Dennis Ross said he saw only a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote, but that both sides may have stronger reasons to make a deal before than after the midterms.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe blockade is what\u2019s really squeezing the Iranians. It\u2019s strangling them,\u201d Ross said.<\/p>\n
A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices. Iran\u2019s chances of gaining much-needed economic relief may be greater while Trump still has a greater political incentive to strike a bargain.<\/p>\n
After the midterms, Ross said, Trump may face fewer constraints and be more willing to intensify pressure or consider military options.<\/p>\n
LEVERAGE AS OBSTACLE?<\/p>\n
The leverage that brought Washington and Tehran back to negotiations could \u200calso make compromise harder.<\/p>\n
Washington controls the pressure that is hurting Tehran most, while Tehran controls access to a critical energy chokepoint. Neither side wants \u200cto surrender that leverage without extracting something tangible in return.<\/p>\n
This means the midterms may be less a deadline for diplomacy than for preserving the conditions that make the diplomatic efforts possible. If Washington and Tehran cannot turn leverage into a deal \u200cbefore the midterms, the diplomatic window could narrow as the risk of escalation grows.<\/p>\n
Even as it seeks a diplomatic off-ramp, Tehran is preparing for the possibility of renewed war with Washington, the Iranian official \u200csaid, accusing the US of using the economic blockade and threat of force as tools of coercion.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur fingers are on the trigger,\u201d said the senior Iranian official. \u201cThe Americans know what they need to do but, because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low.\u201d<\/p>\n
Regional sources said Tehran was willing to drop a demand for payment of transit fees to use the Strait of Hormuz from the main agreement and put the demand in a side attachment instead, as ending the blockade had become the more urgent priority. Gulf states have rejected the proposal for payment of transit fees. Any arrangement would be temporary, not a formal abandonment of Iran\u2019s position, the regional sources said. The US has tightened the economic \u200cvice on Iran, layering new sanctions on top of a blockade that has choked off Iran\u2019s oil exports, an important source of hard currency.<\/p>\n
This month, it targeted Iran\u2019s remaining commercial airlines and support networks as part of a campaign to sever the economic lifelines sustaining the government and the powerful Revolutionary Guards. Trump warned that Iran\u2019s economy could \u201crot\u201d unless it reached a deal.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran is not primarily focused on imposing tolls in Hormuz but on preserving its administrative control of the waterway,\u201d he said. \u201cIran may be willing to defer the toll issue, but they are not going to give up administrative control of the strait.\u201d At the heart of the diplomacy in New York is a fundamental tension. Washington wants pressure to produce concessions, Tehran wants pressure removed before making them, and the Gulf states want the conflict resolved without allowing the region\u2019s strategic waterways to become enduring bargaining chips.<\/p>\n
FEARS OF AN OPEN-ENDED CONFLICT<\/p>\n
During a separate meeting with Trump in New York, Gulf leaders sought clarity on Washington\u2019s endgame beyond the midterms, including on whether the US would resume military action if Iran refused to return to negotiations.<\/p>\n
They conveyed their collective rejection of any Iranian control of Hormuz, saying freedom of navigation must be restored and that the strategic waterway should not become a tool of coercion against Gulf states, regional sources said. Yet alongside their warnings over Hormuz, Gulf leaders have pressed hard for de-escalation and a political process, reflecting the region\u2019s determination to stay out of any further conflict between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s still not clear what Trump\u2019s endgame is, or what the alternative to the pressure campaign would be,\u201d said Ebtessam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank based in Abu Dhabi.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iranians, by contrast, know what they want. They\u2019re reshaping the regional landscape through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb with a clear objective while Washington has yet to define its roadmap,\u201d she said, referring to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. That uncertainty is also shaping Tehran\u2019s calculations. Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer, said the New York talks had not altered the basic positions of either side and that Iran was unlikely to retreat as long as it believed Trump wanted to avoid a wider escalation before the midterms.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe blockade is hurting them, but rather than softening their position, it is likely to drive them to escalate because they believe that if they soften their position, they are dead,\u201d said Alan Eyre, a former US negotiator on Iran.<\/p>\n
A Western official familiar with the talks added: \u201cIt is all about opening the Strait of Hormuz. We\u2019re all under pressure domestically and the Iranians know that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Reuters<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":306106,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[28],"tags":[102,101],"class_list":["post-306105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-strait-of-hormuz","tag-hormuz","tag-strait-of-hormuz"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/117330625327573850","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=306105"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306105\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/306106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=306105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=306105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=306105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}