But the calculation among plotters is still likely to come down to weighing the state of the war against how bad the verdict is from voters at the May local elections. \u201cHe\u2019s played a blinder and is exactly where most of the country is,\u201d one Starmer critic said. \u201cBut if it\u2019s a bloodbath in May it would still be tricky. And it feels like everyone is on maneuvers in Westminster.\u201d<\/p>\n
That is acknowledged even in government. One minister said the outcome will be difficult to predict if election results are \u201ccatastrophic,\u201d while another said: \u201cThere is still a feeling that things are untenable and could come to a head quite quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cabinet ministers including Chancellor Rachel Reeves have been contacting junior ministers in recent weeks encouraging them to rally round the prime minister, said one of those on the receiving end. They described the outreach as one of the \u201csave Keir calls.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some note, too, that those arguing that a leader cannot be changed during a war have forgotten lessons from the past. \u201cThe center [of government] will argue people shouldn\u2019t move at a time of war, but we changed leaders during two world wars,\u201d said another government frontbencher. \u201cIf things are really bad in May, I don\u2019t think it will be the argument that stops people.\u201d<\/p>\n