In the time it takes to walk from your car to your desk, President Donald Trump added $1.7 trillion to stocks and pushed the price of oil down by $17, or approximately 15%. By the time you got your coffee, Iran had reportedly called him a liar, and half those gains vanished.<\/p>\n
This is the average Monday morning for a very market-oriented executive in the fourth week of war.<\/p>\n
At approximately 7 a.m. ET, Trump posted<\/a> in all-caps on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran held \u201cvery good and productive conversations\u201d over the weekend toward \u201ca complete and total resolution\u201d of hostilities in the Middle East. He ordered the Pentagon to pause all strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.\u00a0<\/p>\n Washington had kept Israel informed of the talks, Reuters reported<\/a>, and Israel is expected to follow the U.S. in suspending strikes on Iranian power plants.<\/p>\n That came after Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran Saturday night, calling on the regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face bombardment of its power grid. Now, it appears he\u2019s buying time for the workweek, and leaving the weekend as a buffer before any next move.<\/p>\n S&P 500 futures swung nearly 4% off their lows, Brent crude collapsed from $109 to a low of $92 before partially recovering, and West Texas Intermediate touched $88.70, its lowest point since the war began.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s state media reported that the talks never happened, citing an unnamed \u201csenior security official\u201d in a post on Telegram<\/a>.\u00a0The official called it a ploy to manipulate markets and said there\u2019s no communication lines between the two countries. As of time of writing, no official from Iran has publicly confirmed or denied Trump\u2019s claim.\u00a0<\/p>\n Trump told Fox<\/a> Business that talks did occur Sunday night, involving special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, facilitated by Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey. Iran wants a deal \u201cbadly,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have major points of agreement\u2014I would say almost all points of agreement. Perhaps that hasn\u2019t been conveyed,\u201d he added, also joking that Iran needs \u201cbetter public relations people.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Wall Street has a word for all of it, coined<\/a> by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong last May: TACO, or Trump Always Chickens Out. The acronym describes Trump\u2019s habit of making catastrophic threats that cause market panic, then reversing course before economic pain can set in. The trade has minted money for investors who bought every dip, confident that Trump\u2019s tolerance for damage had a ceiling.\u00a0<\/p>\n The pattern was seen in his trade war last year as he announced prohibitively high tariffs only to reach a deal later. It played out in Greenland too early this year, when Trump spent weeks threatening to seize the island<\/a> only to settle<\/a> for a vague base agreement.<\/p>\n The Iran war is, theoretically, supposed to function differently: after all, it takes \u201ctwo to TACO,<\/a>\u201d since Trump cannot just unilaterally end the war the same way he could unilaterally pull back sanctions. <\/p>\n Oil analyst Rory Johnston wrote on Monday that though the \u201cbase case\u201d was that Trump would try to back out and declare victory, it won\u2019t be that simple to bring down oil prices.<\/p>\n \u201cHormuz flow still hasn\u2019t resumed and every day we\u2019re shedding more oil from the system,\u201d he wrote<\/a> on X<\/a>.\u00a0\u201cThat\u2019ll catch up\u2014can\u2019t jawbone 10 to 15 million barrels per day stock draws.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n It is unclear who Trump is even negotiating with on Iran\u2019s side. He told Fox Business he\u2019s dealing with the man who\u2019s \u201cmost respected\u201d in Iran, though \u201cIt\u2019s a little tough \u2014 we\u2019ve wiped out everybody.\u201d <\/p>\n U.S.-Israeli forces have killed most of Iran\u2019s top brass, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, security chief Ali Larijani, and other senior leaders. When asked a few weeks ago whom Trump wanted to see replace the ayatollah, Trump said \u201ceveryone we had in mind is dead.\u201d<\/p>\n